Japanese game makers continue Nintendo focus

[Magus427]

See the Variety asia online article here:

http://www.varietyasiaonline.com/content/view/1595/53/

I'm starting to wonder if PS3 will see FFXIII before 2009...

-Magus

[Johnny]

Just makes sense from a business perspective really in the same way that devs flocked to the PS and PS2, more or less ignoring the competition after a while.

Interested on the Sega figures though, given that recently they voiced their concerns over the Wii and the fact that they have stated that the PS3 and 360 are important to them.
Capcom I'm not so worried about as most of their flagship titles/franchises (DMC, Lost Planet, Dead Rising etc etc) aren't going to come to the Wii other than spin off games.

IMO the Wii will run out of steam in terms of graphical prowess and mainstream (non-gamer) status in a couple of years and then it will be interesting to see if its admittedly backwards stance in terms of graphics, HDD and online capabilites really matter to people or not.

[beatmania]

Nintendo's share price hit a record ¥46,350 ($376.80), boosting its market value to $53.4 billion, ahead of Sony's, even though Nintendo is a game specialist while Sony is a global electronics and entertainment powerhouse with a far more diverse product range.

Holy ... doesn't that make Nintendo the world's biggest electronics company?

All this due to 2 products.

[tuffy]

IMO the Wii will run out of steam in terms of graphical prowess and mainstream (non-gamer) status in a couple of years and then it will be interesting to see if its admittedly backwards stance in terms of graphics, HDD and online capabilites really matter to people or not.
In a couple of years the Wii will be dominant to an extant that its technical capabilities will be irrelevant and nobody will care because that's where the games are.

This latest round of developer migration is just another element of the console positive feedback loop. Customers have flocked to the Wii, developers are following customers and more customers will follow those developers as they get games to store shelves. Conversely, developer migration away from the PS3 makes it even less attractive to customers, and so on and so forth.

So, I'll be surprised if Final Fantasy makes it to the PS3 at all.

[ADC]

IMO the Wii will run out of steam in terms of graphical prowess and mainstream (non-gamer) status in a couple of years and then it will be interesting to see if its admittedly backwards stance in terms of graphics, HDD and online capabilites really matter to people or not.
Didn't happen for the graphically limited DS, brother. The question is whether Nintendo can keep up its current momentum, and I think they can. Consider that they've released a whopping two AAA titles so far, and the Wii's already more than made up the distance the 360 gained in its unchallenged year. I have them down for three more before 2008 dawns (MP3, SMG, SSBB), which could give them the critical mass they need to dust Microsoft and Sony combined.

[Jarred]

IMO the Wii will run out of steam in terms of graphical prowess and mainstream (non-gamer) status in a couple of years and then it will be interesting to see if its admittedly backwards stance in terms of graphics, HDD and online capabilites really matter to people or not.
But the first thing most parents and "mainstream" folks see is the price. We are obsessed with price. $250 vs $400 vs $500+, graphics, HDD, and online stuff plays second fiddle.

That's why the Wii will have legs. Look at the DS. But I don't understand why everyone thinks the Wii is in direct competition with 360/PS3. We are seeing a new (or old reborn) market grow that doesn't necessarily care about the "hard-core" consoles. Nintendo doesn't even want to compete. The real battle now is between MS and Sony, and MS is ahead by quite a few million.

I think we'll see a FF game hit the 360 before XIII hits the PS3 (not necessarily XIII, just something using the franchise).

[Johnny]

IMO the Wii will run out of steam in terms of graphical prowess and mainstream (non-gamer) status in a couple of years and then it will be interesting to see if its admittedly backwards stance in terms of graphics, HDD and online capabilites really matter to people or not.
Didn't happen for the graphically limited DS, brother.

True, but I don't think people mind limited graphics as much when it's a portable.

[Johnny]

IMO the Wii will run out of steam in terms of graphical prowess and mainstream (non-gamer) status in a couple of years and then it will be interesting to see if its admittedly backwards stance in terms of graphics, HDD and online capabilites really matter to people or not.
In a couple of years the Wii will be dominant to an extant that its technical capabilities will be irrelevant and nobody will care because that's where the games are.

This latest round of developer migration is just another element of the console positive feedback loop. Customers have flocked to the Wii, developers are following customers and more customers will follow those developers as they get games to store shelves. Conversely, developer migration away from the PS3 makes it even less attractive to customers, and so on and so forth.

So, I'll be surprised if Final Fantasy makes it to the PS3 at all.

Some interesting points. Personally I hope, of course, that the Wii does well and we get some fantastic games for it but complete Wii dominance is my biggest fear for the industry at the minute. Well, more correctly, complete Wii dominance, where the market as a result becomes much more 'casual' and traditional games are forced to use motion sensing controls needlessly is my biggest fear.

Don't get me wrong, I've had a blast playing 'traditional' games on the Wii with motion controls such as Zelda and Resi 4, but the day I'm playing Devil May Cry 5 or Lost Planet 2 or GTA V or Ninja Gaiden 3 or MGS 5 or whatever, using the remote + nunchuk is the day I think I'll die inside.

[Jarred]

True, but I don't think people mind limited graphics as much when it's a portable.
I don't think mainstreamers mind limited graphics AT ALL. When I played with a dozen of mainstream family and friends over the holidays, everyone thought that Wii Sports looked great. "It's funny!", "It's cute!", "It feels so real", is what they said. They have no idea or don't care about how good DMC4 or GOW should look on the PS3/360. They didn't even know those games exists and most likely don't care. But these are the people rushing out to buy Wiis, a whole new market.

[Jarred]

But do you think the Wii is segmenting the gaming market? I think it's growing it with a new audience, so the hard-core appeal you want will still exist and might even grow as possibly a few of the new casual gamers begin to want the graphics, HDD, etc.

The Wii's success is additive to the current market, IMO.

[christianlf]

In a related development, Nintendo's market value briefly surpassed Sony's on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday -- a company first and another indication of the reversal of fortune between the two game biz rivals. Nintendo's share price hit a record ¥46,350 ($376.80), boosting its market value to $53.4 billion, ahead of Sony's, even though Nintendo is a game specialist while Sony is a global electronics and entertainment powerhouse with a far more diverse product range.

That's insane. I'll admit, I totally didn't think Nintendo would be throttling Sony the way they are. On the one hand, I'm a little disappointed in the PS3's performance, as I thought it was Blu-ray's best chance at going mainstream (and I'm hungry for HD content), but on the other hand, Sony really fucked themselves on this one. I'm not tribal (well, now that Sega's out of the hardware business anyway :cry: ), so it doesn't really pain me in any real sense. I just want good games (I owned the entire previous generation). I know my roommates and I are dying to go get a Wii. Hopefully, that'll happen in the next few months.

[ADC]

True, but I don't think people mind limited graphics as much when it's a portable.
I don't think mainstreamers mind limited graphics AT ALL. When I played with a dozen of mainstream family and friends over the holidays, everyone thought that Wii Sports looked great. "It's funny!", "It's cute!", "It feels so real", is what they said. They have no idea or don't care about how good DMC4 or GOW should look on the PS3/360. They didn't even know those games exists and most likely don't care. But these are the people rushing out to buy Wiis, a whole new market.
Adding to the point, the graphics card doesn't make the graphics. The designer does. Sure, 1920x1080 is a bigger easel than 853x480, but it doesn't mean that there can't be some awesome-looking games at 853x480. So far, the best-looking game screens I've seen in Generation 7 have all come from Super Mario Galaxy. That's not an indictment of the graphics hardware in the PS3 and 360, it's an affirmation that Nintendo's graphics designers are that good at their jobs.

[Johnny]

But do you think the Wii is segmenting the gaming market? I think it's growing it with a new audience, so the hard-core appeal you want will still exist and might even grow as possibly a few of the new casual gamers begin to want the graphics, HDD, etc.

The Wii's success is additive to the current market, IMO.

I think it is dividing things up, yes. The new audience is all good because at the end of the day, more gamers = more money for the industry = better games = happiness, but of the people I know that own a Wii, only one would be classed as a hardcore gamer and one is looking into a 360 and/or PS3. The others are all fairly casual gamers or Nintendo fans and I have to wonder how long the appeal will last because at the end of the day, yes, the DS and Wii are dominating Japan at the minute but the majority of sales are coming from 'non-games' that are being bought by people who wouldn't normally associate themselves with gaming and if the appeal wears off and the bottom falls out of the market, it's bad news for Nintendo and the industry as a whole.

I do think though that it's far too early to be making estimates on what the PS3 and Wii will be like further down the line because they're both still getting started in different ways.

[Jarred]

So do you think that your casual gamer friends would have bought a 360 or PS3 had the Wii not been around? In my experience, they wouldn't have, so they weren't even in the market to begin with. So there would be no segmentation going on.

Edit: Er, I meant gamer friends, not gamer fans. Although I'm sure you have your fans (as is evident in the forum gallery)

[GetterBeam]

I don't see how Wii dominating will somehow dilute the presence of "hardcore" content. If the system most folk want is the Wii, then that is the platform upon which the demand for any and all types of games will be shifted. If one dev company decides to not cater to the masses wanting a certain type on the Wii, that's on them. All it means is that somebody will show up to satisfy that need since mindshare and profit drive this industry. Hence why Nintendo's overall value as a business is now massive and poised to grow even bigger...they just couldn't/didn't focus on those 2 things with the Gamecube in a way that struck a chord with the general populace. It is amazing how well the Wii is doing in Japan especially compared to the GCN.

3DO tried to high end it as far as price/image goes back in the day...Sony will do far better than them considering their resources but overall it'd take some interesting magic for them to manage PS2 like levels of dominance again, both on their part and on Nintendo and Microsoft ultimately making some of the worst decisions ever at the same time.

Don't fear for DMC 5 Waggle! :D I remember folk back in the day pissed about analogue sticks not being as good as a d-pad and "messing up their games". It all comes down to the developers having the time and money to TRY to make the games work well. With the Wii, both of those aspects are needed much less. Competition is great for the industry right up until fan favorites try something foolish and perhaps get smacked too hard by one bit of bad luck or timing to stand up again. Imagine if it'd been somebody like Atuls that was on the receiving end on a Spirits Within level bomb....

[Lego]

It's strictly business for them right now. The Wii is being hit by ports and crappy "lets put something on the Wii" games. Capcom showed that something like Resident Evil 4 could be great on the Wii but most companies are mailing it in, trying to get some money on what they probably see as a "fad". The PS3 right now is dead in the water until it gets its "killer app". The 360 is going strong but facing growing complaints about its reliability. The Wii has sold the most in the last six months almost catching up to the 360 but needs new and innovative games before people start to get tired of it.

Thats the key to the Wii's future success. You can't have a GameCube like release schedule where you have one new game every four to five months. Theres only so much Wii tennis you can play before you want a traditional gaming experience. Although if you're buying the Wii for graphics you're looking in the wrong place. I see the Wii more as a "companion" machine for most gamers since after hours of something like Halo or Killzone it's nice to sit back and play some Mario or tennis. I usually subscribe to the "graphics don't matter TO MUCH" newsletter but when the 360 and PS3 step up and developers get used to it the Wii will needs to have a strong lineup.

[lostnomad84]

IMO the Wii will run out of steam in terms of graphical prowess and mainstream (non-gamer) status in a couple of years and then it will be interesting to see if its admittedly backwards stance in terms of graphics, HDD and online capabilites really matter to people or not.
In a couple of years the Wii will be dominant to an extant that its technical capabilities will be irrelevant and nobody will care because that's where the games are.

This latest round of developer migration is just another element of the console positive feedback loop. Customers have flocked to the Wii, developers are following customers and more customers will follow those developers as they get games to store shelves. Conversely, developer migration away from the PS3 makes it even less attractive to customers, and so on and so forth.

So, I'll be surprised if Final Fantasy makes it to the PS3 at all.

Some interesting points. Personally I hope, of course, that the Wii does well and we get some fantastic games for it but complete Wii dominance is my biggest fear for the industry at the minute. Well, more correctly, complete Wii dominance, where the market as a result becomes much more 'casual' and traditional games are forced to use motion sensing controls needlessly is my biggest fear.

Don't get me wrong, I've had a blast playing 'traditional' games on the Wii with motion controls such as Zelda and Resi 4, but the day I'm playing Devil May Cry 5 or Lost Planet 2 or GTA V or Ninja Gaiden 3 or MGS 5 or whatever, using the remote + nunchuk is the day I think I'll die inside.

I personally believe the whole concept of the Wii is not to force people to use motion-based controls, but to allow the developers more flexibility in creating their game.

Graphics are great, but we are nearing the point where graphics improve on a smaller scale each generational leap. In my view, bringing consoles to HD was a measure to help improve the graphics compared to what you would see on a normal tv. But the sacrifice in the end is a need to incorporate very high end hardware and a large data storage format to store all the graphics data, which results in expensive costs to both the consumer and producers. With both Microsoft and Sony, we are seeing exactly the same thing and games haven't really fundamentally differed at all in comparison to the previous generation of consoles.

Nintendo may have the weaker graphics, but I don't personally care anymore. The games are fun, the creativity in playing the games are fun, and developers are smart to know that if you don't care to wave your arms around, you can use a classic control scheme.

Almost everyone I know either has a Wii or wants one simply because of the fun factor. The fun factor is exactly what drove me to play games in the first place and I've experienced less of that over the years with each new generational leap. The Wii is the first time in years I've enjoyed a console more than I can recall since the SNES/Genesis days. I also think the general population feels the same way with how the console is being quickly embraced by people of all ages and aspects of society.

[lostnomad84]

In a related development, Nintendo's market value briefly surpassed Sony's on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday -- a company first and another indication of the reversal of fortune between the two game biz rivals. Nintendo's share price hit a record ¥46,350 ($376.80), boosting its market value to $53.4 billion, ahead of Sony's, even though Nintendo is a game specialist while Sony is a global electronics and entertainment powerhouse with a far more diverse product range.

That's insane. I'll admit, I totally didn't think Nintendo would be throttling Sony the way they are. On the one hand, I'm a little disappointed in the PS3's performance, as I thought it was Blu-ray's best chance at going mainstream (and I'm hungry for HD content), but on the other hand, Sony really fucked themselves on this one. I'm not tribal (well, now that Sega's out of the hardware business anyway :cry: ), so it doesn't really pain me in any real sense. I just want good games (I owned the entire previous generation). I know my roommates and I are dying to go get a Wii. Hopefully, that'll happen in the next few months.

Almost everyone I've talked to agrees Blu-Ray will most likely win over HD-DVD and I don't think the PS3 will be a factor in the Blu-Ray victory. Too many companies and studios have embraced Blu-Ray and HD-DVD support is just not there.

[Magus427]

It's strictly business for them right now. The Wii is being hit by ports and crappy "lets put something on the Wii" games. Capcom showed that something like Resident Evil 4 could be great on the Wii but most companies are mailing it in, trying to get some money on what they probably see as a "fad". The PS3 right now is dead in the water until it gets its "killer app". The 360 is going strong but facing growing complaints about its reliability. The Wii has sold the most in the last six months almost catching up to the 360 but needs new and innovative games before people start to get tired of it.

The Wii is getting ports and crappy games because publishers are struggling to throw stuff onto it because they're late coming to the game and want a piece of the pie. The quality games will probably be here within the next year or so as dev teams get a chance to actually work on things. I don't think the casual crowd is complaining about a lack of games either, just the hardcore. For the new people buying the system this is a new experience and they aren't exactly running out and buying a new game every month.

We'll see if PS3 actually gets their 'killer app' with so much of their stuff being ported to the 360. I've heard it's easier to scale the processes down for games to function on the 360 after designing for the PS3 but not vice-versa. If that's true, PS3 is in for a world of hurt until it can prove that games can *play* better on the system and not just look a *tad* prettier.

Thats the key to the Wii's future success. You can't have a GameCube like release schedule where you have one new game every four to five months. Theres only so much Wii tennis you can play before you want a traditional gaming experience. Although if you're buying the Wii for graphics you're looking in the wrong place. I see the Wii more as a "companion" machine for most gamers since after hours of something like Halo or Killzone it's nice to sit back and play some Mario or tennis. I usually subscribe to the "graphics don't matter TO MUCH" newsletter but when the 360 and PS3 step up and developers get used to it the Wii will needs to have a strong lineup.

I'm sure Wii will have a strong lineup one way or another considering how people around the world are snapping the systems up. MS needs to guarantee quality with their 360 systems before I buy one and I won't be touching a PS3 until FFXIII is released for it so for now I'll stick with the Wii as my only current system.

-Magus

[Lego]

I'm in the same boat as you when it comes to getting a 360. Supposedly there are rumors of new chips and price drops this fall, but who knows. I can see the Wii getting some new "add on" soon other than the Wii Ware announcement from earlier this week.

[Jarred]

I can see the Wii getting some new "add on" soon other than the Wii Ware announcement from earlier this week.
It's gotta be hard drive support, by either USB or being able to play off the SD card. With WiiWare and NeoGeo games coming, something has to happen. There's just not enough room.

[quenelf]

DS and Wii are dominating Japan at the minute but the majority of sales are coming from 'non-games' that are being bought by people who wouldn't normally associate themselves with gaming and if the appeal wears off and the bottom falls out of the market, it's bad news for Nintendo and the industry as a whole.

Sure, but that's a big 'if'. Why would the appeal wear out?

Also, it's not the whole truth. The truth is that virtually all Nintendo's games are 'casual' games, as in, they're not complicated and cater well for inexperienced players. New SMB is probably one of the most has sold what, four and a half million copies in Japan alone? I'd be willing to bet that people who bought the system for Nintendogs or Brain Age or kanji practice are also picking up games like that.

Even outside the mega-hits, regular games like the recent Zelda title are doing pretty well also. The fact than you can sell five million Brain Age (in Japan) doesn't mean that it isn't worth making a Zelda game that sells 500,000 (in Japan).

So if you like Nintendo's 'deeper' games, you're sorted, because Nintendo selling lots of them means plenty of money to spend on them, and new games in that vein.

It's not even just Nintendo-style games. The large user bases of the systems makes all types of games possible. Most of the more hardcore games for Wii that you might expect to be on other platforms won't be coming out soon (except the PS2 ports of varying quality), because there hasn't been time for developers to notice that, shit, they're selling a lot of the system. But the seriously-flawed Red Steel sold about a million copies, clearly indicating that Wii owners want that type of game as well as their Wii Sports and Big Brain Academy and Zelda.

I assume PS3 will make a comeback once games come out and the price drops, but Nintendo really have a chance of being #1 this generation, which surprises me. (Before it was released I was hoping for a solid second place. Might still happen, but that's now looking like a *worst* case for them.)

--quen

[Lego]

Not to "poo poo" on your post as you make some good points but I just took a look at VGchartz and the 360 is selling around 10 mil, the Wii at 8.5 mil, and the PS3 is chugging around 3.5 mil. Thats an awful lot of ground to gain for Sony. The DS is about doubling the PSP's sales right now, so casual or not Nintendo is hitting it out of the ballpark. The 360 has been out for a little over a year now and just reached ten million while the Wii hasn't hit a year yet and it's close.

I'm not trying to be anti-Sony as I own and love my PS2. What I'm getting at though is Sony made some big mistakes coming into this new arms race and they're paying for it. They need a good looking game to show people "wow, If I spend the money I'll get this great experience". Right now aside from the blu ray player a lot of people are looking at the PS3 as a more expensive 360. Thats the perception out there right now.

[christianlf]

Almost everyone I've talked to agrees Blu-Ray will most likely win over HD-DVD and I don't think the PS3 will be a factor in the Blu-Ray victory. Too many companies and studios have embraced Blu-Ray and HD-DVD support is just not there.

It's not a matter of beating HD-DVD that I'm worried about. At this point, the comparison between sales numbers is pretty embarrassing. But Blu-ray has to do more than that; it has to overtake DVD, and the PS3 was a great way to get that player in a lot of homes that might not have normally splurged on one. But until BD somehow manages to effectively cut into the DVD market, it's nothing more than this generation's laserdisc.

[Johnny]

DS and Wii are dominating Japan at the minute but the majority of sales are coming from 'non-games' that are being bought by people who wouldn't normally associate themselves with gaming and if the appeal wears off and the bottom falls out of the market, it's bad news for Nintendo and the industry as a whole.

Sure, but that's a big 'if'. Why would the appeal wear out?


Because to a lot of people, it's just the latest fad to be forgotten in a year or two. At the minute anyway, it's a party console. It's something that a lot of people will bring out when they have a few people round and will then gather dust the rest of the week.
Whereas Sony, with the Playstation, got (especially in the UK) the masses playing the likes of WipEout and Ridge Racer through installing consoles in nightclubs, the "Playstation Generation" that these people formed was known for the likes of Tomb Raider, Resident Evil and so on (i.e. actual games) and not party game fluff like we're experiencing with the Wii.
I am aware that Sony were going for the 18-30 market and Nintendo are more 1-100 but it's still all about tapping into a casual market.

[quenelf]

I'm not sure 'fads' really last a year or two.

It's not really party games that are their big new hit that's propelling ridiculous DS sales anyway, it's non-games - Brain Age is hardly a party game, and if it had only been the first game, I'd agree it was a fad, but the sequel also sold squillions.

Of Wii game sales, according to VGChartz (I know, slightly sketchy data, but still), there are 7 games that sold over a million. Discounting pack-in sales (US sales of Wii Sports) and Wii Play because it was basically free with a controller, the best-selling game is Zelda: not a party game. Of all 6 games, three are party games but three aren't. That's really pretty balanced. So the fact that lots of shitty minigame collections are released for Wii doesn't really mean they're dominating sales.

Which are the next Wii games you'd expect to see on that million-seller list? Because I'd bet on Metroid, Smash Bros, and the Mario Galaxy; two out of three not being party games.

Similarly, looking at the top 10 DS games (same source) gives four non-games, five traditional games, and one borderline (Animal Crossing).

So anyway, it might be a stereotype that Wii is all about party games and DS is all about nongames, but neither is actually true. And most of those people who buy a Wii for Wii Sports will definitely be picking up some standard games as well. (Especially when there are more decent standard games available...)

--quen

[Magus427]

If sales keep going like this for the Nintendo Wii and with the dominance of the DS, looks like Japanese game companies will have no choice but to offer the majority of their product for Nintendo systems. Link to the Reuters article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUST20345020070702

I'm waiting for this number to become 10 to 1 only to hear Sony and MS give their line of 'We're not in competition with Nintendo, we're going for different markets.' only for a reply to be 'I see, I guess Nintendo is doing so well because no one's competing with them.'

-Magus

[ADC]

I'm waiting for this number to become 10 to 1 only to hear Sony and MS give their line of 'We're not in competition with Nintendo, we're going for different markets.' only for a reply to be 'I see, I guess Nintendo is doing so well because no one's competing with them.'
To be fair, Microsoft is going after a different market (the American market) and pretty much getting in where it's fitting in in Japan. But nothing about this really surprises me, given Sony's refusal to admit that its market analysts severely over-estimated the viability of a $500-plus console. Sony's caught in the perfect storm of its own making, needing software sales to make up the per-unit loss on the PS3 but not selling enough hardware to compel the software developers want to make lots of PS3 games. Oops.

The real question is, when will the Wii get some exclusive flagship titles not developed by Nintendo or its second parties? When that happens, it's the last nail in the coffin of Sony's PS3 strategy.

[quenelf]

The difference is that laserdiscs inherently cost more. Blu-ray discs don't inherently cost significantly more than DVDs (they do now, but they won't in the end). Similarly, Blu-ray players will eventually drop to rock-bottom prices. At the moment the technology is much more expensive, but it won't stay that way.

So, given time, Blu-ray would certainly supplant DVD. The question is whether it has that time before downloaded video (lower-quality, but will most people care?) takes over.

--quen

[Johnny]

The real question is, when will the Wii get some exclusive flagship titles not developed by Nintendo or its second parties? When that happens, it's the last nail in the coffin of Sony's PS3 strategy.

We'll know when we get the Dragon Quest X announcement.
DQ X will go to the console that will dominate Japan.

VIII went to the PS2 at a time when it was absolutely whitewashing the Cube and Xbox in terms of sales.
IX went to the DS at a time when seemingly every last person in Japan owns one and it alone is dominating the multi-format charts.

My prediction? The Wii gets spin-offs like Dragon Quest Swords and a likely console version of Dragon Quest Monsters J, with the PS3 getting Dragon Quest X in about 3 years time in all its HD BD glory :virgin:

[Leon_Belmont]

The real question is, when will the Wii get some exclusive flagship titles not developed by Nintendo or its second parties? When that happens, it's the last nail in the coffin of Sony's PS3 strategy.

We'll know when we get the Dragon Quest X announcement.
DQ X will go to the console that will dominate Japan.

VIII went to the PS2 at a time when it was absolutely whitewashing the Cube and Xbox in terms of sales.
IX went to the DS at a time when seemingly every last person in Japan owns one and it alone is dominating the multi-format charts.

My prediction? The Wii gets spin-offs like Dragon Quest Swords and a likely console version of Dragon Quest Monsters J, with the PS3 getting Dragon Quest X in about 3 years time in all its HD BD glory :virgin:

Well, even if Wii sales slide I don't know if PS3 will be catching up by the time DQX goes into preproduction. Plus, with DQ, graphics really aren't quite the focus. They could get away with Wii with that one.

What would really make my day is if it were Xbox exclusive. DQ is pretty much THE flagship S-E property for Japan. That would be huge, HUGE for Xbox, and pretty much be the hurdle they need to get shit moving there. If Japan finally opens up to that system, it'll slaughter. Likelihood though? A snowball's chance in hell probably.

[ADC]

What would really make my day is if it were Xbox exclusive. DQ is pretty much THE flagship S-E property for Japan. That would be huge, HUGE for Xbox, and pretty much be the hurdle they need to get shit moving there. If Japan finally opens up to that system, it'll slaughter. Likelihood though? A snowball's chance in hell probably.
That would make it the first Dragon Quest game I've missed since DQVI. And I didn't even have the option of picking that one up in the States, not owning a Super Famicom.

[ape2020]

What would really make my day is if it were Xbox exclusive. DQ is pretty much THE flagship S-E property for Japan. That would be huge, HUGE for Xbox, and pretty much be the hurdle they need to get shit moving there. If Japan finally opens up to that system, it'll slaughter. Likelihood though? A snowball's chance in hell probably.


And you still believe in Santa don't you?

I'm not that impressed with S-E's Xbox (even when M$ is willing to drop their pants and grab their ankles) offering of old crappy ports or minor C-Team projects. For their flagships FF and especially DQ it will be $ony or NiddyT

-ape2020

[dunno001]

What would really make my day is if it were Xbox exclusive. DQ is pretty much THE flagship S-E property for Japan. That would be huge, HUGE for Xbox, and pretty much be the hurdle they need to get shit moving there. If Japan finally opens up to that system, it'll slaughter. Likelihood though? A snowball's chance in hell probably.
That would make it the first Dragon Quest game I've missed since DQVI. And I didn't even have the option of picking that one up in the States, not owning a Super Famicom.

Not having an SFC stopped you? Modding a SNES is as easy as snapping off a few tabs. (And yes, I did get SFC carts for both DQ 5 and 6.) But to me, the DQ series is good enough that even if hell did freeze over, and it went to the 360, I would get a 360 for it. The later FF games, not so much... although I would like to see something real come to the Wii...

[ADC]

Not having an SFC stopped you? Modding a SNES is as easy as snapping off a few tabs. (And yes, I did get SFC carts for both DQ 5 and 6.) But to me, the DQ series is good enough that even if hell did freeze over, and it went to the 360, I would get a 360 for it. The later FF games, not so much... although I would like to see something real come to the Wii...
Nah, it's more a matter of not wanting to support Microsoft in my case. If Square Enix announced Final Fantasy XIII or Dragon Quest X or even Chrono Trigger Remastered exclusively on the 360, I'd just shrug and let them go by. I don't draw many lines in the sand, but this is one.

As for snapping off tabs, it's sort of moot because I didn't even know about importing games until later in life — and after doing it a few times, I found that I didn't care about games enough to keep doing it.

[Leon_Belmont]

Not having an SFC stopped you? Modding a SNES is as easy as snapping off a few tabs. (And yes, I did get SFC carts for both DQ 5 and 6.) But to me, the DQ series is good enough that even if hell did freeze over, and it went to the 360, I would get a 360 for it. The later FF games, not so much... although I would like to see something real come to the Wii...
Nah, it's more a matter of not wanting to support Microsoft in my case. If Square Enix announced Final Fantasy XIII or Dragon Quest X or even Chrono Trigger Remastered exclusively on the 360, I'd just shrug and let them go by. I don't draw many lines in the sand, but this is one.

As for snapping off tabs, it's sort of moot because I didn't even know about importing games until later in life — and after doing it a few times, I found that I didn't care about games enough to keep doing it.

Don't be hatin. Regardless of what you see in any of those three companies, they all want to get their hands on your wallet and throw your ass away when that wallet's empty. Console favoritism is for suckers. Real men play games not consoles. You only find a gamer who's a real man (or woman) once in a blue moon though. We've all bought into labels like corporate bitches.

[ADC]

Don't be hatin. Regardless of what you see in any of those three companies, they all want to get their hands on your wallet and throw your ass away when that wallet's empty. Console favoritism is for suckers. Real men play games not consoles. You only find a gamer who's a real man (or woman) once in a blue moon though. We've all bought into labels like corporate bitches.
If it were about Microsoft's Xbox division and no other part of the company, I'd agree. My issue is with Microsoft at large. I will not support that company. I will not buy its products. I will not use its free products. And I will not buy or use products which only operate on Microsoft hardware/software platforms. There is no game known to exist which will change my position. Square Enix could release a boxset of remastered FFs 7–9 including T on the Xbox 360 with a $30 price tag for the whole thing and I won't buy it. Capcom could put up a complete Street Fighter collection, all the way from II to III Third Strike, for free on XBLA and I won't download it. It has nothing to do with being a Nintendo fanboy or a Sony apologist. I will not support Microsoft in any way.

[Arcturus]

If it were about Microsoft's Xbox division and no other part of the company, I'd agree. My issue is with Microsoft at large. I will not support that company. I will not buy its products. I will not use its free products. And I will not buy or use products which only operate on Microsoft hardware/software platforms. There is no game known to exist which will change my position. Square Enix could release a boxset of remastered FFs 7–9 including T on the Xbox 360 with a $30 price tag for the whole thing and I won't buy it. Capcom could put up a complete Street Fighter collection, all the way from II to III Third Strike, for free on XBLA and I won't download it. It has nothing to do with being a Nintendo fanboy or a Sony apologist. I will not support Microsoft in any way.

:(

Microsoft pays my salary. Obviously you want me to starve!

Think of the childrens!

[ADC]

:(

Microsoft pays my salary. Obviously you want me to starve!

Think of the childrens!
To you personally, I will apologize. I wish you no ill. Bill's rich enough to pay your salary about a million times over, though, so I'm not overly worried. ;)

[Johnny]

What would really make my day is if it were Xbox exclusive. DQ is pretty much THE flagship S-E property for Japan. That would be huge, HUGE for Xbox, and pretty much be the hurdle they need to get shit moving there. If Japan finally opens up to that system, it'll slaughter. Likelihood though? A snowball's chance in hell probably.


Heh, that would be a good way to find out when the world as we know it is about to end ;)

Seriously though, that would mean the 360 being the dominant console throughout Japan and there's just no way that's going to happen within the next couple of years.

[Johnny]

It has nothing to do with being a Nintendo fanboy or a Sony apologist. I will not support Microsoft in any way.

Yeah but you know at heart you're a Nintendo man ;)

Seriously though, if you have your beef with them that's fair enough. What I will say is that my complete apathy towards the Xbox (not MS, couldn't give a shit about them one way or another really) put me off the 360 until 10 months after launch. But even as someone with a soft spot for Sony (even though I'll buy and play stuff from absolutely any company) I'll say that the 360 is a complete turnaround from what the Xbox was.

[ADC]

Yeah but you know at heart you're a Nintendo man ;)
Can I lay claim to that? I never owned an N64 and really want only two more games from it on the Virtual Console (Majora's Mask, Paper Mario).

Of course, if Nintendo released a limited edition Mario game with a Princess Peach pillowcase, I'd buy it. So I guess you're right. :nervous: :bignosebleed:

[Chloe]

As a corallary to the thread topic, how is the Wii selling in the U.S. compared to the PS3? I am wondering if they are getting taht 6-1 ratio in Japan, which seems like bad news for Sony. All I know is, I was supposed to get a Wii for my birthday, June 25th....and I had no chance. F'ing system is still nowhere to be found in the local stores. And I thought I might have a chance to get one back in March. HA!

I was in the store a couple days ago buying La Pucelle Tactics and Star Ocean(for my PS2), and I watched 3 people come up and bug the clerks about when they were getting in more Wii. If Nintendo could make them any faster, they could sell them.

I still think Sony will be fine. Maybe I am not 'with it' or something, but it seems to me that PS3 is really in head to head with the Xbox 360, and I think that is a fight it can potentially win. Wii is so different in it's focus as to not really be a threat. Yes, there wil be overlap, but the people looking to buy either of those two systems probably would not be as interested in the other one. Two different sets of customers. Now the troubles with reliability with the XBoxes will help Sony some. Johnny, or anybody, how long do you think it will be before PS3 surpasses Xbox sales, if ever?

[ADC]

As a corallary to the thread topic, how is the Wii selling in the U.S. compared to the PS3?
Here's the current breakdown of overall American sales, accounting for all three systems:

Microsoft Xbox: 6.47M (64 percent of worldwide)
Nintendo Wii: 3.57M (40 percent of worldwide)
Sony Playstation 3: 1.56M (43 percent of worldwide)

I looked at a (somewhat unhelpful) chart at VGChartz and found that the Wii is selling about 90,000 per week, the 360 about 45,000, and the PS3 about 20,000. I say "about" because they're line graphs and I have to eyeball the actual performance instead of having numerical sales data. Still, that's about 4.5:1, not quite the 6:1 in Japan but still significant.

[Johnny]

Johnny, or anybody, how long do you think it will be before PS3 surpasses Xbox sales, if ever?

In which region? I don't really want to get into the predicting game but Europe is never going to change from being Sony dominated. By Xmas 08 at the latest, PS3 sales will be above 360 and Wii in my opinion.

In the US, once the first price drop is announced or FF XIII hits, the floodgates will open.

360 is never going to be anywhere near the top seller in Japan but I'd say once FF XIII and its spin offs arrive + Monster Hunter PS3 + the usual RPG suspects, the PS3 will be sitting at the top of the overall sales list.

[Magus427]

As a corallary to the thread topic, how is the Wii selling in the U.S. compared to the PS3? I am wondering if they are getting taht 6-1 ratio in Japan, which seems like bad news for Sony. All I know is, I was supposed to get a Wii for my birthday, June 25th....and I had no chance. F'ing system is still nowhere to be found in the local stores. And I thought I might have a chance to get one back in March. HA!

I was in the store a couple days ago buying La Pucelle Tactics and Star Ocean(for my PS2), and I watched 3 people come up and bug the clerks about when they were getting in more Wii. If Nintendo could make them any faster, they could sell them.


It was confirmed that in the U.S. for the month of May Wii outsold PS3 4 to 1 (think I read this at Gamedaily.biz). U.S. numbers aren't in yet for June, but I think that's more because people are off for the holiday this week. Hopefully we'll get numbers for June sometime within the next week or so for the U.S.

However, Wii outselling PS3 at 4.5 or almost 5 to 1 is probably about right at this point. I also read an article recently that Wii product vs. demand may not catch up until Spring/Summer of 2008. I'll post it later if I find it again when I get home.

Best chance to get a system here in the U.S. is to check the Sunday ads Saturday night and arrive an hour or so before opening on Sunday. Either that, or you can pre-order one of the bundles that EB/Gamestop seem to have quite a few of lately.

-Magus

[Soulblazer]

In which region? I don't really want to get into the predicting game but Europe is never going to change from being Sony dominated. By Xmas 08 at the latest, PS3 sales will be above 360 and Wii in my opinion.


The same type of thing used to be said about Nintendo in the days of SNES. Then the original PS and the N64 came out... Change happens; Sony needs to adapt to the market or lose out.

[Magus427]

Johnny, or anybody, how long do you think it will be before PS3 surpasses Xbox sales, if ever?

In the US, once the first price drop is announced or FF XIII hits, the floodgates will open.

360 is never going to be anywhere near the top seller in Japan but I'd say once FF XIII and its spin offs arrive + Monster Hunter PS3 + the usual RPG suspects, the PS3 will be sitting at the top of the overall sales list.

In the U.S., Sony needs a price drop of at least $200 for more people to show interest in the system. I say $200 because it's becoming pretty evident that MS will probably drop the prices of all 360 types by $100 this holiday season, and if not $100, at least $50.

The other thing Sony needs to do is provide some software. The people I know who own a PS3 don't have any games that scream 'You're worth the $600 I spent'. If they had a game that did that, I know a few people that would pick up a system.

FFXIII in the best case scenario is scheduled to come out mid-2008 in Japan. If that happens and Square Enix can get the game out to the U.S. in time for Christmas that would be ideal. However, chances are better that Japan won't see FFXIII until late 2008, probably in time for the holidays there and we won't see the game stateside until sometime in mid-2009.

As far as Japan goes, I don't see Sony catching up unless sales improve by this holiday season. I'll go on record as saying if the Wii sales continue as they are and reach close to the current DS level, there's no way Sony will catch up. And even when FFXIII is released on the PS3, you better believe the Wii will be getting DQX as well as a host of other RPGs.

-Magus

[ape2020]

Microsoft Xbox: 6.47M (64 percent of worldwide)
Nintendo Wii: 3.57M (40 percent of worldwide)
Sony Playstation 3: 1.56M (43 percent of worldwide)

Okay I know there is a simple answer but how did the world market get broken up into 147%?

-ape2020

[DiGiKerot]

Microsoft Xbox: 6.47M (64 percent of worldwide)
Nintendo Wii: 3.57M (40 percent of worldwide)
Sony Playstation 3: 1.56M (43 percent of worldwide)

Okay I know there is a simple answer but how did the world market get broken up into 147%?

-ape2020


I think those are percentages for the total worldwide sales of a specific console (i.e. the 6.47m 360s sold in the US is 64% of all 360s sold worldwide), rather than being individual market shares.

[Jarred]

Microsoft Xbox: 6.47M (64 percent of worldwide)
Nintendo Wii: 3.57M (40 percent of worldwide)
Sony Playstation 3: 1.56M (43 percent of worldwide)

Okay I know there is a simple answer but how did the world market get broken up into 147%?

-ape2020

Those %'s aren't pieces of a pie, they are the US percentage of worldwide sales for each console.

[ADC]

Okay I know there is a simple answer but how did the world market get broken up into 147%?
The world switched to the American system of measure. There are now 212 percent in one whole. ;)

Nah, DiGi and Jarred were right, and I was unclear. That's the US sales figure as a percentage of each console's worldwide sales.

[Leon_Belmont]

Okay I know there is a simple answer but how did the world market get broken up into 147%?
The world switched to the American system of measure. There are now 212 percent in one whole. ;)


Indeed. The other 65% belongs to the mighty Ngage. All hail the Ngage. Hallow be thy game.

[HitokiriShadow]

The other thing Sony needs to do is provide some software. The people I know who own a PS3 don't have any games that scream 'You're worth the $600 I spent'. If they had a game that did that, I know a few people that would pick up a system.

FFXIII in the best case scenario is scheduled to come out mid-2008 in Japan. If that happens and Square Enix can get the game out to the U.S. in time for Christmas that would be ideal. However, chances are better that Japan won't see FFXIII until late 2008, probably in time for the holidays there and we won't see the game stateside until sometime in mid-2009.


FFXIII is pretty far out there, but MGS4 is supposed to come out this year (or at least it was the last I heard) and that should sell a few systems.

[Johnny]

In which region? I don't really want to get into the predicting game but Europe is never going to change from being Sony dominated. By Xmas 08 at the latest, PS3 sales will be above 360 and Wii in my opinion.


The same type of thing used to be said about Nintendo in the days of SNES. Then the original PS and the N64 came out... Change happens; Sony needs to adapt to the market or lose out.

I'm talking Europe here. The same Europe that embraced the Megadrive/Sega more than the SNES/Nintendo back in the day.

Change happens, yes, but at the minute Sony don't need to do much adapting as sales have been strong throughout Europe.

Ever wonder why everyone (N, Sony, MS) were saying that Europe would be the main 'battleground' this gen a few months back?
That's because most people can see that in the US (PS3/360/Wii) and Japan (PS3 and Wii) things are going to be fairly balanced, initially at least. Gaming and Sony dominance is different here than the rest of the world at the minute.
Trust me, Europe is a different ball game altogether.

[Chloe]

Why is that johnny? I can see why you can say that about the US/Japan markets, but WHY does Sony have a stranglehold on Europe? They don't make console buying decisions based on $ cost of the system there? They have a much higher % of 'hardcore' gamers who really care about the better graphics capabilities and such? I just can't figure why that would be so, it seems irrational.

MS is based in the US, and they don't have to fight the Japanese' bias for their own systems here, so that much higher % of worldwide in the US seems explainable.

I just have trouble understanding why Nintendo would not be able to do as well in Europe; I really don't see them as being directly head to head with Sony really. They clearly aim for a different(more casual) gamer audience now. I would think the PS3 and Wii would do equally well in Europe, not have a disparity. Why would this be???

[Johnny]

Why is that johnny? I can see why you can say that about the US/Japan markets, but WHY does Sony have a stranglehold on Europe? They don't make console buying decisions based on $ cost of the system there? They have a much higher % of 'hardcore' gamers who really care about the better graphics capabilities and such? I just can't figure why that would be so, it seems irrational.

I just have trouble understanding why Nintendo would not be able to do as well in Europe; I really don't see them as being directly head to head with Sony really. They clearly aim for a different(more casual) gamer audience now. I would think the PS3 and Wii would do equally well in Europe, not have a disparity. Why would this be???

It's down to brand loyalty more than anything really. Nintendo have generally done 'worse' in Europe than the rest of the world - the Megadrive (Genesis) was more popular than the SNES here, the Playstation outsold absolutely everything, the GC was nowhere after the PS2 and even Xbox and the general consensus seems to be 'wait for the PS3 before buying the 360'.
Of course, I am speaking generally, based on people I know, shelf space for games in shops, promotions and so on.

Another thing is the status of games here to Average Joe. In the US, you guys are lucky to have TV shows etc dedicated to gaming and it enjoys a fairly mainstream status but over here it's definitely still in the dark ages in terms of public 'acceptance'. It's basically ok to own a PS2 (and now PS3) to play the latest GTA or sports game, but anything else is generally looked upon as being a little weird. As a result, I don't think Wii sales are doing that well because of this stigma.

Nintendo are well known for their lack of advertising here too. I'm having a hard time trying to remember any GC TV ad for example.
It doesn't help that Nintendo are by far and away the worst company when it comes to releasing games here on time with the rest of the world. Remember all the stories about Sony shunning Europe because of the delay in the PS3? Not even half as bad as N's track record.

It's only fairly recently too that the DS has started to really outsell the PSP as well.
In your general GAME store (GAME being the biggest gaming retailer here), the 360 display dominates due to volume of games, PS3 is really catching up and the Wii is usually in the back corner, along with the DS stuff.
I mean, yes, the Wii is outselling the PS3 at the minute but I'd be very, very surprised if that continued for very long.

EDIT: Just read that the PS3 price drop won't be happening in Europe. Why? Because they know it will sell regardless. It's not like the US where it seems consumers are more aware of price and rival consoles.

[ADC]

EDIT: Just read that the PS3 price drop won't be happening in Europe. Why? Because they know it will sell regardless. It's not like the US where it seems consumers are more aware of price and rival consoles.
Nor is it really happening in the States. Sony's just dropped the existing consoles by $100 so they can sell them off and put out their EE/GS, 80-GB version at $600 with no competition.

I think I mentioned somewhere that Sony's head is so far up its own ass that it'll take the whole 10-year strategy period for those jackasses to get a fucking clue. Turns out I was wrong. Stick a fork in that fucker, it's done.

[DiGiKerot]

It's down to brand loyalty more than anything really. Nintendo have generally done 'worse' in Europe than the rest of the world - the Megadrive (Genesis) was more popular than the SNES here, the Playstation outsold absolutely everything, the GC was nowhere after the PS2 and even Xbox and the general consensus seems to be 'wait for the PS3 before buying the 360'.

This is changing though. Most the people I know who were waiting on the PS3 are entirely unimpressed with the PS3s price point and the comparative lack of games, both now and on the run up to X-Mas. With most of the third party titles being on 360 as well, and the larger number of 360 exclusives, well, interest is very definitely starting to shift.

I think Sony are very definitely going to have some real headaches this X-mas if they can't get any really good exclusives out this year.


It's basically ok to own a PS2 (and now PS3) to play the latest GTA or sports game, but anything else is generally looked upon as being a little weird. As a result, I don't think Wii sales are doing that well because of this stigma.

Those same sports games and GTA are now all available on 360 now too, though.

As for the Wii sales, the main limitation is still supply. Sure, most stores are now managing to keep limited stock in for a while, but it is still limited. I can't see Wii's being anywhere near as widely available as Ninty would like until March next year.


Nintendo are well known for their lack of advertising here too. I'm having a hard time trying to remember any GC TV ad for example.
It doesn't help that Nintendo are by far and away the worst company when it comes to releasing games here on time with the rest of the world.

Again, things change. Nintendo have really gotten their act together in regards to advertising these days. I can't remember the last time I saw a PS3 advert on the TV, but there's either a DS or Wii advert on during pretty much every program I watch on TV these days, and a lot of new ones too.

Yeah, there are still issues with game release timings, though. At least we got the Wii console promptly, and a lot of the first party Wii games are being released reasonably promptly (and we did get Mario Strikers before the US).


In your general GAME store (GAME being the biggest gaming retailer here), the 360 display dominates due to volume of games, PS3 is really catching up and the Wii is usually in the back corner, along with the DS stuff.


Of the four local Game stores around here, all of them have the DS games right up next to the stores entrance. In at least two of them have the Wii games directly opposite the mid-store counter, where it's actually to browse than the PS3 stuff.

The thing is, until the consoles are more widely available, there's no point in having the Wii games most prominent. The old stuff only sells with consoles - which always require a bit more effort than games to buy anyway - whilst the new stuff will be displayed at the front of the store with the new releases anyway.

The positioning of PS3 stuff prominently has more to do with them not selling stuff than it flying off the shelves anyway - the Ninty stuff is popular enough for people to be willing to go into the store for it. The PS3 stuff is front-and-center to remind people that it's actually there.

I seriously don't think the UK market is anywhere near as one-sided at the moment as you think it is. Presently, Sony really do look to be in the same position SEGA were with the Saturn...