The Meaning of R2J Sales Numbers

[Suwako Moriya]

On occasion, someone will post that because <insert series here> sold X number of units, chances of a sequel are poor/average/good. After seeing it time and time again, I've begun to wonder the following.

Is there some general guideline when it comes to success vs sales? To give an analogy, it would be like how on a scale of 1 to 10, the 10 is considered great, but the 1 is considered poor.

Speaking of general guidelines, how set in stone are they? Wouldn't part of it also depend on productions costs and other factors? Factors that I assume would vary from series to series.

I do have some general idea due to past comments I've read. I can pretty much tell that under a 1,000 is bad and around 5,000 is good due to past posts I've read.

Still what about stuff like say for example an average of 4,757? Is that considered close enough to 5,000 to be good. Or does merely being below 5,000 make it bad?

I guess the point of all this is that with people throwing around numbers and declaring stuff a success or failure because of them, I'd like some meaning to be added to the numbers being thrown around.

Finally, I already realize that for some series, the DVD sales are not the main factor. That for them, other factors are of higher importance. Still if you want to bring that up, go ahead.

[Betenoire]

Speaking of general guidelines, how set in stone are they? Wouldn't part of it also depend on productions costs and other factors? Factors that I assume would vary from series to series.

I would guess it is what you mentioned as well as expectations. Using a movie comparison Superman Returns made more money than Batman Begins but due to expectations The Dark Knight got made and another Superman movie has yet to.

[something]

Speaking of general guidelines, how set in stone are they? Wouldn't part of it also depend on productions costs and other factors? Factors that I assume would vary from series to series.
Not set in stone at all, naturally. As you note, factors will vary a lot. All you can really do is look at how a show sells relative to how other shows of similar length/genre sell, really. Seitokai no Ichizon is doing almost 7k after its first two volumes - to me, that seems surprisingly good for it. On the other hand if the latest Gundam TV series did that, well, it'd be a sign of the apocalypse.

[Suwako Moriya]

Not set in stone at all, naturally. As you note, factors will vary a lot. All you can really do is look at how a show sells relative to how other shows of similar length/genre sell, really. Seitokai no Ichizon is doing almost 7k after its first two volumes - to me, that seems surprisingly good for it. On the other hand if the latest Gundam TV series did that, well, it'd be a sign of the apocalypse.


Ah, that's nice to hear in regards to Seitokai no Ichizon. In general, I get what you're saying. Although I'll admit I haven't done the research required to be able to go 5,000 for X is bad and 5,000 for Y is good.

Although I would assume that say for example a 4-Koma series, that 4,000+ would at at the very least be considered good. Note the use of the word good as opposed to great.

[something]

Although I would assume that say for example a 4-Koma series, that 4,000+ would at at the very least be considered good. Note the use of the word good as opposed to great.
Yeah, though of course comparing on multiple variables always helps... K-ON! was a 4koma series. Lucky Star was a 4koma series. And we know how they did - so 4k for K-ON! 2 would be absolutely horrid. Because there's a different variable in there... KyoAni.

That actually has me curious to see cute how 4koma comedies do in general, but I need to hurry up and watch... well, Hidamari, appropriately enough. :sd:

[musouka]

Although I would assume that say for example a 4-Koma series, that 4,000+ would at at the very least be considered good. Note the use of the word good as opposed to great.

What matters more than the subject matter is the money put into production. It's the exact same way the American movie industry works. A tentpole movie with a lot of money put into it might be considered a flop if it doesn't hit three hundred million, where another movie shot for much less will be considered a breakaway hit if it reaches a hundred million.

This is why the numbers for, oh say, Hetalia--which was obviously done on the cheap--are more impressive to me than something like K-On, which had a much larger budget. K-On outsold Hetalia by a large margin if you factor in both DVD and BluRay, but Hetalia is probably the more profitable of the two. Both of them come from 4koma series, which is why I'm comparing.

[ilmaestro]

but Hetalia is probably the more profitable of the two.
Until, I would imagine, you add in all the "intangibles" (that are actually pretty tangible, but whatever).

[musouka]

Until, I would imagine, you add in all the "intangibles" (that are actually pretty tangible, but whatever).

Well, yes, of course, but that wasn't what was under discussion.

Hetalia is profitable in those areas too, I'd image. The character singles sales are comparable to K-On's character singles, though the OP/ED singles for K-On completely dominate the chart, naturally. There is also a variety of merchandise out there, and a movie coming out. That's not bad for a weekly, five minute web-broadcast series consisting mostly of talking heads. For example, if you were to compare it to Haruhi-chan instead of K-On, the DVDs have sold almost twice as much.

[Draneor]

About 3/4th of the production budget (http://zepy.momotato.com/img/0808/kaneganai.jpg) goes towards buying TV timeslots so a web-only anime is always going to be more profitable on a percentage basis than a broadcast anime (see also the leaked Bamboo Blade budget). The downside is they usually don't have as large as an audience, which can limit the anime's advertising potential.

[Suwako Moriya]

About 3/4th of the production budget (http://zepy.momotato.com/img/0808/kaneganai.jpg) goes towards buying TV timeslots so a web-only anime is always going to be more profitable on a percentage basis than a broadcast anime

That much goes towards the TV show budget. Yeah, I could see why a web-only anime would have certain advantages.

Also, I'm getting the impression that Hetalia is one of those series that might be more reliant on dialogue than animation. I could be wrong though.

Still looking through the DVDs of Hetalia at CD Japan and seeing them at around 3800 Yen per 28 minutes is kind of curious. That price point makes it come off as one of those series that's cheaper in the short run, but more expensive in the long run.

Which I suppose is based on the idea that someone might be not be willing to pay for example $40 for 4 episodes, but they may be willing to pay $20 for 2 episodes. Before you ask the figures were made up just for the sake of an easy example.


The idea that a series can sell well without having to have a large budget is indeed impressive. However the irony is that because those shows prove that you don't need a high budget to succeed, they also validate higher budget shows.

In the sense that if it's proven that a show can sell without a higher budget, it also means we can't automatically assume that the only reason a higher budget show sold was because it had a higher budget.

Speaking of higher budget, I'm not even sure as to what K-ON!'s actual budget was. Thus I have no idea if the series only needed to sell say for example 5,000 volumes to break even or if the series needed to sell as high as 20,0000 volumes.

[hissatsu]

Thus I have no idea if the series only needed to sell say for example 5,000 volumes to break even or if the series needed to sell as high as 20,0000 volumes.

I don't think any anime would be made that required sales that high to break even. Requiring a smash hit just to break even is a recipe for disaster.

[Suwako Moriya]

Thus I have no idea if the series only needed to sell say for example 5,000 volumes to break even or if the series needed to sell as high as 20,0000 volumes.

I don't think any anime would be made that required sales that high to break even. Requiring a smash hit just to break even is a recipe for disaster.

Well, the numbers I posted aren't meant to be taken seriously. I just wanted two numbers that were different enough from each other in scale to get the point across. Although maybe I should have used different numbers.

[ilmaestro]

Until, I would imagine, you add in all the "intangibles" (that are actually pretty tangible, but whatever).

Well, yes, of course, but that wasn't what was under discussion.
OK.

[ilmaestro]

Requiring a smash hit just to break even is a recipe for disaster.
Heh, wouldn't be the first industry to have companies make something under those assumptions and pay heavily for it.

[Draneor]

I probably should have linked to this earlier, but I recommend reading all of Zepy's summary of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry report (http://zepy.momotato.com/2008/08/30/anime-business/) if you want to understand the anime industry. TV stations make out like bandits.

That price point makes it come off as one of those series that's cheaper in the short run, but more expensive in the long run.

I doubt very many customers use "price per episode" as a deciding factor.

You have a favorite franchise. It gets an anime. You buy it. Hetalia is fujoshi fodder so it sells. K-On! is otaku fodder and so forth. Some stuff will obviously sell well (more Gundam), but then you have anime whose popularity explodes out of almost nowhere (Haruhi, Bakemonogatari, etc). On the other hand, pedigree doesn't always mean an anime will be a hit. For example, Higurashi was considered a success (http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2009-05-04/industry-group-head-says-anime-is-a-bubble-that-burst), but there's no way Umineko possibly could be.

The bottom line is the entire late night anime industry is built upon getting a small, but dedicated fanbase to pay as much as possible for everything related to your franchise. The more niche a show is expected to be the more expensive it is usually to buy it.

The idea that a series can sell well without having to have a large budget is indeed impressive.

The industry that caters to the LNA market depends upon this. There's obviously a market for "quality" titles, but it's not very large. While it's true that having bishounen, moe, and mecha is no longer a guarantee of success, pretty much all the top sellers still have them.

[relentlessflame]

Speaking to the sort of "prevailing wisdom" part of the original post, here's what you will typically see said for late-night anime.

1. Any show that sells over 10,000 units per volume is generally considered a "success", and likely to get a sequel (from the same source/author, if not the same franchise). Recent examples would be things like Index/Railgun, Bakemonogatari, and anything by Kyoto Animation.

2. Shows that sell between 5,000 and 10,000 units per volume are above average, and might very well get a sequel in this market if they believe they can sustain the level of interest. Recent examples would be things like Saki, Queen's Blade, Seitokai no Ichizon, etc.

3. The median amount sold is around 1,500 to 2,000 units per volume. It's pretty rare that you'd see shows that sell at this level get sequels, except when it was planned as a two-part show from the get-go (which is almost always the case when the sequel airs 3 months after the original season). There are plenty of shows each season that sell less than 1,000 copies per volume.

What has generally happened in the last few years is that there are a lot less shows in the second category, and a lot more in either the first or the third. The market has sort of polarized -- either the title is a huge hit, or it's a huge flop. My take on this is that there is less overall money to spend per person, so people are more likely to just pick their absolute favourites and/or the very top-rated shows. For example, the record-setting success of Bakemonogatari has certainly had an impact on the sales of other shows sold in the same window. The fact that Blu-Rays generally cost 1,000 yen more than the equivalent DVDs also reduces the amount of money to spread around.

So, anyway... that's sort of a collection of the sort of "prevailing wisdom" among us armchair analysts.

[Quarkboy]

Requiring a smash hit just to break even is a recipe for disaster.
Heh, wouldn't be the first industry to have companies make something under those assumptions and pay heavily for it.

Japan doesn't take that kind of risk, and especially not lately. The last riskily expensive anime was probably Cowboy Bebop, which was the most expensive anime ever made at the time and also completely original. And the experiment failed... Cowboy Bebop was not a giant success in Japan. Thankfully it ended up being a big hit in the west and that made up the difference.

Generally, and I kid you not, the budget is dictated by the expected sales figures, not the other way around. I.e. it's not "how can we sell enough copies to make a profit on this", it's "how much money can we spend on production and still make a profit."

[ilmaestro]

Generally, and I kid you not, the budget is dictated by the expected sales figures, not the other way around
Er... isn't that the sensible thing to assume? Rather than the "I kid you not" thing?

[Draneor]

What has generally happened in the last few years is that there are a lot less shows in the second category, and a lot more in either the first or the third. The market has sort of polarized -- either the title is a huge hit, or it's a huge flop.

Yeah. I've noticed that. Sales seem to be increasingly concentrated at the top. My own spending as of late reflects that trend too. Everyone is buying the K-On!s and Bakemonogataris and no one is buying the Asura Cryin's, Umimonogataris, and Taishou Yakyuu Musumes. I also think this is one of the reason for the drop in sales for Hayate no Gotoku!! between productions. Anime based on 4-koma still tends to do above average (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Atv1YncRdpdsdDk0ZGFnZk40RHJZY1VPcUZ4c0JGU Wc&hl=en) so it makes sense why it's the hot trend of the moment along with adapting light novels, but a lot of stuff isn't doing so well (e.g., anime based on visual novels).

Generally, and I kid you not, the budget is dictated by the expected sales figures, not the other way around. I.e. it's not "how can we sell enough copies to make a profit on this", it's "how much money can we spend on production and still make a profit."

I understand production is the only cost they can control (and thus why it tends to be cut), but it's really pittance compare to the broadcast fees. I really think this is the fundamental problem with the current model, and that's why I like to support alternative methods, such as OADs and web-based anime. There may not be a better way, but I'm glad they're trying to find one.

[Suwako Moriya]

Anime based on 4-koma still tends to do above average (https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Atv1YncRdpdsdDk0ZGFnZk40RHJZY1VPcUZ4c0JGU Wc&hl=en) so it makes sense why it's the hot trend of the moment along with adapting light novels, but a lot of stuff isn't doing so well (e.g., anime based on visual novels).

A link related to 4-Koma, I must check it! Checking it, I've learned not to expect a sequel for Kanamemo.:sweat: Still, I do like the numbers for Geijutsuka. Yeah, it could be better, but at least it's not a miserable number.

In any case, I suppose another factor to getting a sequel when it comes to adaptations would be the amount of source material to work with. As well as how much the anime can rely on original material to fill the gap.

[Quarkboy]

Generally, and I kid you not, the budget is dictated by the expected sales figures, not the other way around. I.e. it's not "how can we sell enough copies to make a profit on this", it's "how much money can we spend on production and still make a profit."

I understand production is the only cost they can control (and thus why it tends to be cut), but it's really pittance compare to the broadcast fees. I really think this is the fundamental problem with the current model, and that's why I like to support alternative methods, such as OADs and web-based anime. There may not be a better way, but I'm glad they're trying to find one.

Note that this is one of the big reasons that recent successful anime has been ones that are aired on blocks owned in part by the TV stations themselves.

noitaminA is partially funded by FujiTV itself, just like AnimeChikara (Soranooto) and TV Tokyo... Plus most of the shows on TV Tokyo for kids have TV Tokyo on the production committee. In that case I'm sure the airing fees are not paid for directly as part of the budget (they are probably factored in during the revenue sharing or whatever).

[Suwako Moriya]

My take on this is that there is less overall money to spend per person, so people are more likely to just pick their absolute favourites and/or the very top-rated shows.

Given my own buying habits of late, I can't deny the logic of that. I'm actually starting to reach the point of wanting to pass on the "lesser" titles and focus more on the stuff that I truly care about.

There are titles that in the past, I might have gone for without a second thought. Yet today, I find myself either putting those titles on the back burner while waiting for a cheaper option or passing on them entirely.

All in part because I can't help, but think that the money spent on the lesser title would be better used for a title that I truly desire. One that I'm getting because I want the series and not merely to make my shelf look fuller.

For example, the record-setting success of Bakemonogatari has certainly had an impact on the sales of other shows sold in the same window.

Perhaps, but the exact impact is hard to say. There's no way of knowing which series a person might have bought in place of Bakemonogatari. Some might have gone for X. Others would go for Y. Then some would just not buy either....

Well, I guess if you have an idea of an individual tastes you might be able to hazard guess as to which titles he would get as alternatives and which titles he end up passing on even if they were the only choice.

[something]

Perhaps, but the exact impact is hard to say. There's no way of knowing which series a person might have bought in place of Bakemonogatari. Some might have gone for X. Others would go for Y. Then some would just not buy either....
Well, I guess if you have an idea of an individual tastes you might be able to hazard guess as to which titles he would get as alternatives and which titles he end up passing on even if they were the only choice.
While it's just anecdotal evidence, for me it definitely is a "limited purchasing power" thing. I bought 3 Summer shows, 3 Fall shows, and 2 Winter shows, with Durarara!! increasingly more likely as #3. Ignoring K-ON! (the only pre-summer show), it is looking to me like 3 is about my limit. I can't buy stuff out of that top tier with a budget for only 3 series a season. Not when there are 4+ that feel worthy every time.

Summer:
Haruhi - 49k [8 dvd / 1 cour]
Bake - 45k [6 bd / 1 cour]
S&W - 32k [4 bd / 1 cour]
Total - 126k [18 disc]

Fall:
Railgun - 60k [8 bd / 2 cour]
Sasameki - 36k [6 dvd / 1 cour]
Todoke - 30k [8 dvd / 2 cour]
Total - 126k [22 disc]

Winter:
Hidamari - 48k [7 bd / 1 cour]
SoRaNoWoTo - 42k [6 bd / 1 cour]
Durarara - 36k [6 dvd / 1 cour] [undecided]
Total - 126k [19 disc]

I had to make assumptions on partially solicited series, so don't think I know for sure how long the releases will be. :sd: Those are the MSRP prices without tax, i.e. what CDJapan lists. I'm getting most at Amazon so it'll be cheaper, though S&H has to be factored in.

I find it really quite amusing how they all total to (assumptions and rounding notwithstanding), ~126k yen. Although Fall has two extra cour for the same price... Series length really doesn't matter too much when importing, does it? Not between 1-2 cour anyway. Anyway, continuing along this trajectory for 4 seasons and assuming Amazon discounts for most purchases takes me almost exactly to what I've tentatively budgeted for imports a year ($5k USD). I'm going to ignore the occasional dips into older shows being rereleased (Uta~Kata, possibly My-Otome)...

So what's the point? Well, if that #1 show didn't come out, I would have bought #4 (which would have been #3). If there were no Haruhi, I would have bought Aoi Hana. If there were no Railgun, I would have bought Shin Koihime Musou. If there were no Hidamari, I would have bought Hanamaru (or Durarara, if I don't go for that). In every case it's one of the top (proven or predicted) sellers of the season getting my money at the expense of one of the more niche shows. I know Aoi Hana needed it more than Haruhi or Bakemonogatari, but that's not the only thing motivating me. So the Bakes and the Railguns and the Haruhis sell more and more (as they should, being IMO the best and all), and the others tend to stay lower. precisely everything is coming together as I analyze my purchases...]

And yeah, BD has upped the cost a bit. An extra 5-10k per BD series adds up to knocking out a show every couple seasons.

If every show were 30k like Todoke or S&W, I'd be buying 4 a season. If they were 25k, I'd probably be buying 5 a season... the limitation is definitely my funds, not a lack of worthy shows.

[Suwako Moriya]

the limitation is definitely my funds, not a lack of worthy shows.

I think in general limitation of funds is going to be a factor for most people. Even so it's the fact the limitation exists in the first place that makes the worth of a show so important.

Indeed if a person can only afford three out of four shows, the fourth series is going to be dropped. It's a given that budget limitations would be part of the reason for dropping the fourth show.

Even so, I doubt the average person randomly chooses the priority order. It has to be based on some sort of system. At least in my case, it would be based on level of desire.

I guess the point is that "worth of show" and "limits of budget" are things that go hand in hand with each other. As such one person might be able to squeeze in B+ series. While another might have to limit it to just the A+ stuff. Or heck in some cases drop a few A+ titles as well.

[ilmaestro]

I guess the point is that "worth of show" and "limits of budget" are things that go hand in hand with each other. As such one person might be able to squeeze in B+ series. While another might have to limit it to just the A+ stuff. Or heck in some cases drop a few A+ titles as well.
Yeah, for me it's very much something that ebbs and flows. If there are a lot of show I like in a season, I will go a bit more all-out then, and look to possibly shore up by making the next season a lighter one. On the other hand, if a season has a bunch of shows I kind of want to import, but not really massively stand out ones, I will be more cautious. I wouldn't just import a couple of those "might import" shows solely because I didn't have many "must import" from that season.

If I was to quickly put together numbers for 2009/10 like something's, nearly 37% of my total spending went on shows that started in Spring (counting Haruhi as Spring), and just 15% in Spring. The two halves of the year roughly balance out, as I took a massive hit in Spring (which I'm still feeling now ^^; ) but held back in Summer (this is often the way, of course, due to the nature of the Spring/Fall vs Summer/Winter schedule), and then 23% in Fall, and 25% for Winter shows.

The key thing, though, from Winter is that those stats are if DRRR!! was coming out on BD. Since it's not, I'll probably end up only getting three shows from Winter (unless one of the other shows I'm enjoying suddenly gets even better), which is great because Spring looks to have such a strong lineup.

So I guess I wouldn't, for example, drop a show I really wanted to buy just because another really great show from the same season was also coming out at the same time, but it might have some sort of effect somewhere along the line. Although, if anything, which shows I want to buy has more of an effect on how much I spend on other things, since I put anime imports first as far as disposable income goes.

I don't really know what the point of this post was, but something's post just got me thinking about what the breakdown would be in my case. ^^;

[something]

So I guess I wouldn't, for example, drop a show I really wanted to buy just because another really great show from the same season was also coming out at the same time, but it might have some sort of effect somewhere along the line. Although, if anything, which shows I want to buy has more of an effect on how much I spend on other things, since I put anime imports first as far as disposable income goes.
It's that "down the line" that causes me to try to limit myself to three. If I had gone and also picked up Aoi Hana in Summer, and Shin Koihime Musou and Seitokai no Ichizon in Fall (those being the three I *really* wanted from those seasons but had to pass on), something would have to give eventually. Big time.

I could skip Durarara!! in anticipation of a fourth Spring show really catching my fancy after K-ON!/Angel Beats/Koihime, but there's no guarantee I'll like said show better than Durarara!!. How much easier would it be if I could see the future? :sd:

I did get a bit more money recently that could allow me to get a few more series a year, theoretically, but then it comes back down to the "...in this economy..." problem. I do feel like I've budgeted quite a lot for imports already (maybe a pittance compared to some here, but still, it's double what I've ever spent on R1s in a single year), and for all I know my workplace could disappear tomorrow. If we lived in more stable times, I guess I'd feel differently.

In some ways you think it'd make sense to budget more for the on seasons (Spring, Fall) and less for the off seasons (Summer, Winter) but honestly I'm finding that the number of top tier productions really doesn't seem to have anything to do with the total number of shows produced in a season. While there are almost always more "good" shows overall in the on seasons due to more to choose from, three obvious stand-outs seems to be the norm for me. In Winter 09, MariMite/SoraAge/Natsume. In Spring, K-ON/Saki/Eden. In Summer, Haruhi/Bake/S&W. In Fall, Railgun/Todoke/Sasameki. In Winter 10, Hidamari/Sora/Drrr. Fall '08 was a little different in that it was two (Clannad/Toradora) but those two are a very, very special two, and any of Ga-rei/Gundam00/Kannagi could be a somewhat distant #3.

I know that's based entirely on my personal preferences but there has to be something explaining the phenomenon... maybe I just think of it that way because that's how I've budgeted? :sd: Still, this goes back to before I started importing. So maybe it's less a money budget than an interest budget. I can follow and utterly enjoy a crapload of shows simultaneously (20+ easily) but I can reallllly devote my interest and affections to ~3 per season, perhaps?

[Suwako Moriya]

The first thing, I'll say is I took a look at some sales figures of various series and I've come to the conclusion that the polarization thing seems to be very likely. It's almost like you have a group of ten people. Six wants fries. And the remaining four each want an item that's not fries, but different from each other.

Or wait, I have a better analogy. All ten people bought a hamburger, but each one bought themselves a different side to go along with it. Thus you have ten burgers, but only one person with mashed potatoes for examples.

It's that "down the line" that causes me to try to limit myself to three.

The "down the line" factor is always a risk one has to worry about it. In the case of R2, you can never be 100% series as to what series will win you over the next season. For R1, it's the mystery of what will actually get licensed next. As well when the title will come actually come out...

To be honest, my plans when it comes to deciding what to purchase are really not that elaborate. I don't base it on things like X per season or anything like that.

It's more along the lines of asking myself "Do I want to add another series to my pool of series that I have in progress?" and if the answer is yes, then it becomes a question of which series. That's way the it's worked in R1.

In the case of R2, I tend to just not bother collecting R2s due to the cost. However during the times, I have collected R2, it was done along the following lines. Take it one series at a time and collect it over time on the side.

Thus let's say for example I decided to stop waiting and got started on GA in April, I would try to finish up GA before even considering another R2 series. I would not concern myself as to whether or not a series of higher interest might come out while I'm collecting it.

Well, I suppose if I were to truly concentrate on R2, dedicate myself long term, I might consider K-ON! as a secondary series. However I would stop myself before adding a third series.

Granted the reality right now is so long as I have active R1 series to wrap up, I'll keep defaulting to waiting another month to see if maybe a show will actually get licensed. It's really a question of patience vs trying to keep costs down.

[something]

Or wait, I have a better analogy. All ten people bought a hamburger, but each one bought themselves a different side to go along with it. Thus you have ten burgers, but only one person with mashed potatoes for examples.
Hah, yeah, I think that one is a lot better (as a general sentiment, who knows what the real ratio is). I wonder just how big the anime DVD buying otaku market is in Japan. The 70k+ Bakemonogatari sales, for example - I'd love to know what percentage of DVD-buying otaku picked it up. Certainly a bigger percentage than with just about anything else.

Movies skew things a bit, but I think they reach well outside the usual audience for a number of reasons. I mean, the sales of Ghibli will tell you nothing about the otaku core. More relevant might be Eva 1.x which has sold half a million copies all told, or more than 7 times the average volume of Bakemonogatari. Does this mean there are half a million active DVD buying otaku in Japan? That a sufficiently unanimously popular TV series could move hundreds of thousands of discs eps volume? I'm going to say no, the realistic ceiling for TV series is much lower than that, and Bakemonogatari is probably pushing close to whatever the ceiling is.

[Draneor]

In the case of R2, you can never be 100% series as to what series will win you over the next season.

You can't ever be 100%, but you can get pretty damn close. I know, for example, that I'll be buying the BDs if and when Little Busters! and OreImo get anime adaptations, (even if I'm alone). There's a very good chance I'd import the next KyoAni series that isn't Haruhi/FMP too. And so forth.

That said, I don't think we should be drawing inferences about the R2 market from our buying habits because we're not otaku. There's all kinds of social factors that apply to the Japanese market (the freeter phenomenon, little need for a car, etc) that often don't elsewhere.

More relevant might be Eva 1.x which has sold half a million copies all told, or more than 7 times the average volume of Bakemonogatari.

Eva's not a good metric since it's one of the few otaku anime that appealed to the mainstream and there's also a strong nostalgia factor.

[something]

Eva's not a good metric since it's one of the few otaku anime that appealed to the mainstream and there's also a strong nostalgia factor.
Well, yeah, I'm well aware of that. What I was trying to gauge is what the realistic upper limit might be. Taking an extreme (but a somewhat relevant extreme, i.e. not Totoro) and considering if maybe that's close to the cap. And right after your quote ended, my conclusion was no, it's got to be much less than that.

[Suwako Moriya]

Movies skew things a bit, but I think they reach well outside the usual audience for a number of reasons.

I take it one of the reasons would be that they don't require as long a term of commitment. Even better if the movie has no connection to a TV series that way the person doesn't even have to think about the idea of getting the series as well.

I also have to wonder if maybe it's possible that the word "movie" might carry with it a special meaning. As in it's not just a mere TV series. It's a movie therefore it must be awesome.

[Quarkboy]

I think a good estimate of total otaku base is between 100-200K in Japan. And by that I mean people willing to spend $70 for 3 eps on a blu-ray consistently for shows they want to buy.

And I would guess it's split into three main groups: Gundam/macross mecha fans, Moe/cute/seiyuu worshipping fans, and fanservice/ero, where all the three overlap by some amount.

A show like K-on gets pie-piece 2 pretty solidly, while gundam 00 gets the first slice... Eva hits both plus gets a lot of people that would not usually buy a blu-ray too...
Bakemonogatari gets slice 2 + outsiders who are fans of the light novels...

To relate this to the discussion, the concept of budget probably plays out within these broad categories. I.e. it's not likely someone would be wavering between buying Gundam Unicorn or the new Da Capo.

[hissatsu]

More relevant might be Eva 1.x which has sold half a million copies all told, or more than 7 times the average volume of Bakemonogatari. Does this mean there are half a million active DVD buying otaku in Japan? That a sufficiently unanimously popular TV series could move hundreds of thousands of discs eps volume? I'm going to say no, the realistic ceiling for TV series is much lower than that, and Bakemonogatari is probably pushing close to whatever the ceiling is.

While it doesn't affect your argument much, Eva sold about around 100,000 copies, not half a million.

[Draneor]

I think a good estimate of total otaku base is between 100-200K in Japan. And by that I mean people willing to spend $70 for 3 eps on a blu-ray consistently for shows they want to buy.

I suspect most otaku probably don't buy anime every season, but the occasional buyers are still a sizable percentage. Rather than quantity, they focus on only their favorite franchise. Like take StrikerS and Lucky☆Star, for example. I'm sure a decent number of people buying them only bought those shows. Same thing for any popular series. So I think it's more than just "three bands"--you always have a dedicated base to any franchise.

I guess what I'm trying to say is there are anime otaku and then there are franchise otaku. The plus side of franchise otaku is they buy more than just DVDs.

[Quarkboy]

I think a good estimate of total otaku base is between 100-200K in Japan. And by that I mean people willing to spend $70 for 3 eps on a blu-ray consistently for shows they want to buy.

I suspect most otaku probably don't buy anime every season, but the occasional buyers are still a sizable percentage. Rather than quantity, they focus on only their favorite franchise. Like take StrikerS and Lucky☆Star, for example. I'm sure a decent number of people buying them only bought those shows. Same thing for any popular series.

I guess what I'm trying to say is there are anime otaku and then there are franchise otaku. The plus side of franchise otaku is they buy more than just DVDs.
I think the franchise otaku tend to just do one thing at a time... They might be totally into nanoha and then two years later be totally into fate stay night, or whatever.

Heck, that's what most doujin artists do anyway.

[something]

While it doesn't affect your argument much, Eva sold about around 100,000 copies, not half a million.
That conflicts pretty dramatically with the Oricron data:

Evangelion: 1.0 You Are [Not] Alone (Evangelion Shin Gekijouban Jo) (Movie) 400,335+*98,326=498,661 (cumulative sales of all versions) (Gainax)
2008/04/25 303,916 Limited Edition
2008/05/21 *62,332 Standard Edition
2009/05/27 *34,087 EVANGELION:1.11
2009/05/27 *98,326 EVANGELION:1.11

I guess you were thinking just of 1.11?

[Draneor]

I think the franchise otaku tend to just do one thing at a time... They might be totally into nanoha and then two years later be totally into fate stay night, or whatever.

Unless it's Gundam. :) But I agree.

Heck, that's what most doujin artists do anyway.

Unless it's Typemoon/Leaf/Touhou. :)

[Quarkboy]

Unless it's Typemoon/Leaf/Touhou. :)
I'm actually not sure what you mean. Most Doujin artists would stick with touhou, typemoon, leaf for a couple years and then move on to some other subject or just drop out...

I wasn't talking about the giant semi-commercial circles, but the otaku representative smaller circles and what subjects they tend to draw. You can use the comiket catalogs as a treasure trove of base-otaku research if you wanted to data mine them... It would be quite a feat.

[Draneor]

You can use the comiket catalogs as a treasure trove of base-otaku research if you wanted to data mine them... It would be quite a feat.

Someone already did that (source: one (http://zepy.momotato.com/2008/06/21/comiket-circles-doing-leaf-key-or-type-moon/) & two (http://zepy.momotato.com/2008/08/01/comiket-circles-doing-touhou/)). Individual circles may move on but the overall numbers have shown little signs of going away, despite fluctuations.

[Quarkboy]

You can use the comiket catalogs as a treasure trove of base-otaku research if you wanted to data mine them... It would be quite a feat.

Someone already did that (source: one (http://zepy.momotato.com/2008/06/21/comiket-circles-doing-leaf-key-or-type-moon/) & two (http://zepy.momotato.com/2008/08/01/comiket-circles-doing-touhou/)). Individual circles may move on but the overall numbers have shown little signs of going away, despite fluctuations.

Uh, right... That's my point. We're talking about the purchasing behavior of individuals, not overall averages here. And so these people focus on one thing at a time, but may move from one obsession to another or drop in/out.

[hissatsu]

While it doesn't affect your argument much, Eva sold about around 100,000 copies, not half a million.
That conflicts pretty dramatically with the Oricron data:

Evangelion: 1.0 You Are [Not] Alone (Evangelion Shin Gekijouban Jo) (Movie) 400,335+*98,326=498,661 (cumulative sales of all versions) (Gainax)
2008/04/25 303,916 Limited Edition
2008/05/21 *62,332 Standard Edition
2009/05/27 *34,087 EVANGELION:1.11
2009/05/27 *98,326 EVANGELION:1.11

I guess you were thinking just of 1.11?

Whoops. They still make DVDs? Those quaint things? Yeah, totally managed to block out their existence, much like I did the existence of the 1.0 release. Sorry. Crawling back into hole now.