Originally Posted by Suzuku
The only difference is that the gap between things that do sale and things that don't is getting bigger
In terms of the best sellers getting higher, yes. In terms of the low sellers getting lower, if that's what you meant, this actually isn't the case. I looked into this
a couple months ago, and while it's the common perception, the data suggests things are pretty consistent. [Side note: looking at that post reminded me I left Queen's Blade
out of the list by accident! Will fix.]
I checked 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2009. The mean and median sales numbers are very similar in all four periods. The percentage of shows selling 3-9k was also consistent, between 21 and 27% of shows except for 2005 which saw only 16%.
From 2003 to 2007, roughly 1/3rd of non-children's anime did not rank each time. In 2009, only 5% did not rank - because we had better reporting thanks to the lower thresholds of the BD rankings.
So just as many shows sold badly earlier in the decade as now, it's just that they didn't get reported. If you knocked out all 2009 shows with an average of 1k and below (general threshold in the DVD-only years), not ranking would be closer to 25%, which is pretty similar. Or slightly better.
But this is all moot if all you meant is that the big sellers get bigger while the average show stays in the same ballpark. That's totally true and I agree.
As for this season, I'd put Ao no Exorcist and Gintama as definites to sale over 10,000 in that list.
Ah yes, Gintama of course. It's consistently done over 10k so that's probably a given.