[agila61]

Originally Posted by something

Seems a bit dumb to compare CR subs to DVD/BD sales.

Well, it depends on the claim that is being addressed.

If the claim at hand is whether Crunchyroll on its own can replace the stream of income from Japanese otaku ... well, yeah, then you have to compare CR subs to Japanese DVD/BD sales, because the original claim is implicitly doing so.

If the claim at hand is whether Crunchyroll can grow to fill in a useful slice of a healthy share of overseas rights income ... then comparing CR subs to domestic DVD/BD sales is indeed a bit off.

For one thing, Crunchyroll streaming income comes earlier, and for another thing, for those series that are licensed for home video release, Crunchyroll streaming probably boosts home video sales.

Also, note something about Quarkboy's (samuelp's) figures:

Let's assume that CR with its 100,000 subs makes ~$5 a month from each (taking into account free trial month subs), and pays ~50% of that money back in royalties, for $250,000 per month.

Let's say that half of that goes to Naruto, leaving $125,000 per month.

CR currently has ~25 simulcasts or so, so per show that's $5000 a month.
Per episode therefore, approximately $1250 in money that goes back to the production committee per episode from subscription money.

This fits within a ballpark range of what I know about current streaming rights MGs.

First, its surely the case that half of the royalties do not go to Naruto ~ indeed, not even to Naruto and Bleach.

This is going to be different from leach streaming hits at a leach streaming site, and different from a pay per view plan.

This is a buffet-pricing subscription site, and even if Naruto or Bleach was indeed responsible for half of the decisions to subscribe, once people have subscribed and are paying an "all you can eat" fee ... a large majority are going to watch more than just one or two shows.

So the views of subscribing members are going to be more evenly spread than "popularity". The "I'm here for Naruto" crowd are going to watch a lot more than just Naruto.

So if Quarkboy's numbers say that half of what is likely going to license income is sufficient to cover the MG for all titles of a season, that implies that a substantial number of the more popular series are covering their MG and paying residual royalties. Maybe not a majority, but it could easily be eight or more series getting residuals.

And the way that subscriber views run, heavily tilted to the first two weeks after an episode goes up, they'll likely be getting those residual royalties before the season is finished.

So not only do they get the "free advertising" effect of the MG basically covering the extra costs of the streaming, making it more likely their series will get picked up for overseas home video release, and likely increasing sales if it is ... but if they are one of the Crunchyroll hits of the season, they'll be getting some extra revenues during the broadcast season.

Say that the 5th place show of eight getting residual royalties have 1/16th of the residual royalty pool. That would be about $25,000 in residual royalties for a "second tier hit".

Now, consider that in a typical growth curve, which starts out with explosive or "exponential" growth and then starts tapering off as it hits its market niche ... the drop off from explosive growth happens at roughly half the market size. So if Crunchyroll is still in its explosive growth phase, we are looking at a mature market of 200,000 or more.

That would mean the MG sufficient to cover the extra costs of streaming would only consume about 1/4 of total rights income, which would mean either higher MG's, and small but guaranteed surplus all around, or larger residual royalties ... or a mix of both.

If the market is maturing now, that means it'll grow into something like $30,000 guaranteed for a 13 episode series and an extra $50,000 on top for the hypothetical "second tier streaming hit".

And if the market is not maturing yet, but has another doubling to go before it starts maturing, that is a mature market of 400,000 subscribers, something like $60,000 guaranteed royalties for a 13 episode series and an extra $100,000 on top for a hypothetical "second tier streaming hit".

Now, of course none of those numbers are "sufficient to take the place of a domestic revenue source", but they are interesting numbers in terms of generating a healthy share of revenue from the total overseas rights income.