Re: Fall '12 Check-up
No particular catalyst for posting this other than oh god the election is tomorrow[*] and I can't possibly focus on work and really need something to occupy my mind other than refreshing poll aggregators 6,000 times a day, so, here's the current BD+DVD point totals for all Fall releases with at least 1,000 points racked up + current Stalker estimates. Most of which are totally premature to be looking at but they'll at least provide a way to tell if two titles with similar points are on similar of different trajectories of late.
Points taken as of 00:34 AM on 11/06 (JST).
Key: Total points (BD points / DVD Points) - Title
01) 5,971 (*,***/5,971) - Gintama Enchuusen (DVD-only)
02) 5,825 (4,730/1,095) - To LOVE-Ru Darkness
03) 3,797 (3,320/*,477) - Chuunibyou Demo Koi ga Shitai!
04) 3,696 (3,081/*,615) - Little Busters!
05) 3,534 (2,987/*,547) - Jojo no Kimyou na Bouken
06) 2,528 (2,084/*,444) - Hidamari Sketch x Honeycomb
07) 2,451 (2,295/*,156) - Girls und Panzer
08) 2,043 (*,877/1,166) - Magi
09) 2,000 (1,474/*,526) - K
10) 1,678 (1,379/*,299) - Jormungand Perfect Order
11) 1,292 (1,040/*,292) - Psycho-Pass
12) 1,157 (*,622/*,535) - Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun
Not too surprising that Magi and of course Gintama are the only ones with DVDs topping BDs. Looks like the 2ch predictions of female support for Psycho-Pass have been a bust.
Current Stalker predictions
Key: Total prediction (BD prediction/ DVD prediction) [#Days left to release] - Title ▲▼change from current
01) 11,246 (*,***/11,246)  - Gintama Enchuusen ◄►
02) 10,162 (8,836/*1,326)  - Chuunibyou Demo Koi ga Shitai! ▲1
03) *9,788 (8,133/*1,655)  - Jojo no Kimyou na Bouken ▲2
04) *9,563 (7,549/*2,014)  - To LOVE-Ru Darkness ▼2
05) *9,453 (3,792/*5,661)  - Magi ▲3
06) *9,111 (8,611/**,500)  - Girls und Panzer ▲1
07) *8,188 (6,592/*1,596)  - Hidamari Sketch x Honeycomb ▼1
08) *6,771 (5,529/*1,242)  - Little Busters! ▼4
09) *4,017 (3,178/**,839)  - Psycho-Pass ▲2
xx) *3,804 (1,610/*2,194)  - Kami-sama Hajimemashita ●
10) *3,367 (2,838/**,529)  - Jormungand Perfect Order ◄►
xx) *2,380 (2,006/**,374)  - Onii-chan Dakedo Ai Sae Areba Kankenai yo ne ●
11) *2,115 (1,556/**,559) [*0] - K ▼2
xx) *1,942 (1,305/**,637)  - Busou Shinki ●
12) *1,715 (*,909/**,806)  - Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun ◄►
I highlighted titles in red if they have a longer than average time left to release, as this gives them an uneven advantage in terms of Stalker predictions, which are based partly on time remaining until release. I very much doubt Jojo will actually sell more than Darkness, for example. Especially because Jojo was a fairly early solicit, though not as early as Darkness. Magi was a very late solicit, so its later release date isn't as much of an advantage.
K is the opposite, in that it's basically done getting points. Kaibutsu-kun is only 2 weeks away. All the rest are about the same, so they're somewhat better comparisons.
To illustrate the point, I added three more titles (KamiHaji, Oniai, Busou Shinki) that didn't make my 1,000 point threshold but still have superior estimates to one or both of those right now for. KamiHaji, matter of fact, is closing in on 4k predicted, split evenly enough that both formats should rank. It's been looking up lately, and if it's even a modestly storefront-biased title it could have surprisingly solid sales for a shoujo manga adaptation. It's definitely on track to beat Kaibutsu-kun or Sukinayo at least. However, first volume is heavily discounted (so is Kaibutsu-kun though).
Little Busters! is the big loser in terms of current vs predicted, dropping fully four spots and only one of those due to Magi's rise. If you look at its ranking graph on Stalker, it's easy to see why. It's just been downhill all the way since solicitation. Comparisons to Muv Luv are looking more reasonable with each passing day, but LB! has a long way to go and can turn around later.
TLR Darkness also takes a pretty big hit relative to its major point lead over Chuunibyou. Darkness has not trended downwards nearly as much as Little Busters, but it's been out of the Top 100 for a while now. It did so well early on that it probably won't hurt it though. For Amazon's monthly rankings in October, it was some 20 places ahead of Chuunibyou, although the gap is getting smaller and smaller. Chuunibyou is stubbornly sitting in that top 50 and refusing to leave, and good on it.
Naturally, some of these totals are unrealistic. DVDs will not chart for Jormungand, or Girls und Panzer at current pace, and may not for Psycho-Pass unless it keeps trending up, although it;s a late solicit so it may. The holiday season can have some nasty thresholds.
[*] Speaking of, due to this there's a small possibility I might not get the post done in the morning tomorrow, but it should be a somewhat slow week so I might have time. If not, it'll be up around 11AM EST I guess.
Last edited by something : 11-05-2012 at 02:57 PM.