Re: 2012 12/17~12/23 Anime 30/10 List
Just some quick comments about this week's sales figure before I go:
I kept watch of the 2ch Sales Thread closely before the Oricon sales data went out yesterday. The final estimates of GirlPan by fans there were generally quite close: Most looked at a number between 12k to 14k. And it also matches with the estimation that GirlPan is a title that leans heavily towards Amazon sales channel (which would warrant a discount factor of around 0.75 and 0.75 x 18206 = 13654 which is close to the actual figure 13550). There were a few who predicted 10k but they all factored too much of the serious lack of stock into their prediction.
On the other hand, it was the sales of Chunibyo that came as the biggest surprise for the Sales Thread as most of the predictions just before the data came out had GirlPan beating Chunibyo by 1k or so (so most estimates varied from 11k to 13k) but it turned out it was Chunibyo beating GirlPan by just a little below 1k. It is clear that most people (including myself) underestimated the extent of the undershooting of the Amazon Stalker points. Chunibyo turned out to have a heavily storefront sales model and the sales figure is at the high end of the range of estimation by fans in 2ch (10k-15k). While there has never been any doubt that Chunibyo will sell more than Hyouka and it will go above 10k, the >14k number is very good. Now the question is whether the number can sustain for the later, more serious, part of the series.
It is also good to see ToLoveRu Darkness to go over 10k in its first week. 2ch predictions were divided whether that would indeed happen but most seemed to bet on a figure of around 9k. It remains to be seen if the number will increase further in the coming weeks but it is certain now his series is even more popular than the first 2 seasons, something that is rare for TV anime series.
And the other estimates by 2ch turned out to be on the spot: 16k for Horizon, 8k(BD)+9k(DVD) for KuroBas.
Currently 2ch is filled with schadenfreude mocking at GirlPan failing to beat Chunibyo though I have a feeling that they mainly came from people who are just spectators who wanted to make noises and not real GirlPan haters or Chunibyo fans. The main question is how many the additional prints of GirlPan BD there are and how soon it will be shipped and counted towards Oricon sales figure. Amazon JP now says that the orders will only be sent in Feb instead of Jan, and for a few days in the past week it was not even possible to order Vol.1 in Amazon. We do know the first 10 episodes will be screened again before the last 2 episodes are broadcast, so we may even see one more boost in March for the BD. All these mean that while Chunibyo is this season's No.1 when we enter 2013, chances are still GirlPan will be the topseller for the Fall season when all dusts settle.
So far this season is not going too bad. We may not have super big sellers like SAO (reaching 40k) or Horizon (reaching 20k) like the Summer season, we still have 4 titles that go above the "big hit" 10k line and titles like Little Busters or Magi might just go above that line too. That said, it is a bit regrettable to see so many titles not having any sales figures (which is the common definition for "doing terrible"): Btooom, Shinsekai Yori and probably Code:Breaker, Hayate, and Initial D 5th stage too (I am hopeful about Jormungand 2nd season), and next week's Sukitte ii nayo and Zetsuen no Tempest may also suffer the same fate, as is Robotics;Notes, Hiiro no Kekara 2 and Medaka Box 2 in next month.