Re: Winter '13 check-up
All the 2ch sales thread seems to be able to talk about right now is Kotoura-san. Granted most of it is predicting it won't sell well, but at least it's got people talking. I guess with an opening episode like that, it would. Hasn't translated to much in the way of preorders though, since it peaked at 387 and is currently around 500. But even that might be a good deal better than most people expected (2ch predicted around 1k before the season started).
Maoyuu continues to dominate, which makes me very happy. It's starting to catch up to Love Live in raw points, and is the third Winter anime to hit 1k points.
Haganai Next is out of the top 100 already but considering it hit 10k first week (with DVDs) without being in the top 100 very much during season one, I doubt it matters. Should still be a lock for 10k again, especially since the modified art seems to be more well-received.
Tamakoma is hard to read right now. The good ranking performance after solicitation and ep 1 was surely due to fans who preorder every KyoAni show sight-unseen, though it's lagging (avg 135, median 119) there, behind Chuunibyou (avg 56, median 60) and Hyouka (avg 54, median 43) after the same 112 hours each.
Episode two or three will hopefully clarify whether it grasps broader appeal. Chuunibyou didn't leave the top 100 ever after episode two aired. Hyouka never did worse than 160 after episode two aired, and never left the top 100 after episode three aired. Assuming Tamakoma is being bought by similar people at similar times from similar stores in similar proportions (which is probably true), we should be able to get a decent read on expectations in the coming weeks. But you can never discount a sudden shift (in either direction) with later episodes.
It's just that I don't necessarily expect one, based on the very consistent performance of the two prior works. Sure Tamakoma is original, but I frankly don't think that will matter much at all.
In any event, no guesses from me yet, just some thoughts on what we might be able to glean from numbers in the coming weeks based on recent shows. Good news is that in the past few hours it's jumped from a low of ~220 to about 110 just based on the episode two preview going up. [Edit: oh and it seems to have aired on another station recently too]
Love Live almost dropped out of the top 100, but is back around 50-60 after episode two. It's dropped in most of the B&M rankings but that's primarily because Haganai is taking up a lot of spots and some stores only report a Top 10, which doesn't leave much room.
OreShura might be getting some momentum. It hasn't cracked the top 100 yet but it peaked at 138, which is a lot better than it was doing before.
Sasami-san didn't make much impact after episode one. It peaked at 210 and isn't even in the top 500 right now. I hope it picks up, since episode one was pretty amazing.
Still waiting on that Vivipan solicitation. Everyone will have the first episode under their belts when it hits Amazon, so if it's as anticipated as 2ch thinks, it should start quite high.
Last edited by something : 01-14-2013 at 11:44 AM.