Re: Winter '13 check-up
I was browsing from 11228 to 11236 (as well as a couple of threads in each of the 3 previous days) and there was not that much Kotoura-san in them. So I guess the "momentum" in the Sales Thread was quite high at the hours of thread number 11238, probably because it was aired somewhere at the time of that particular thread. And as I checked thread no.11238 took place at around 11:30pm Monday in Japan and it was when Kotoura-san was aired in Tokyo, where the largest concentration of anime fans reside. Given what they have heard about the show earlier on when it was aired in Nagoya (where somehow it gets aired first) on Saturday, many people are keen on checking and commenting it. It is not really different from what happened when the first episode of ViviPan or Tamakoma was aired when many in 2ch checked the show because of the hype they heard. It is just that in Kotoura's case the hype came from broadcast outside Tokyo instead of trailers or staff list before the start of season.
As for prediction of sales, there is an increasing feeling in 2ch Sales Thread that the current season (2013 Winter) might, just might, be a "barren season" where few titles pass the "big hit mark" of 10k. Almost two weeks into the season, the ranking performance of all the titles is not looking that impressive so far. While no one is expecting a huge hit title selling >20k this season (not even ViviPan), but it is getting increasingly likely that perhaps we may even see some of the TOP FOUR bestselling of this season selling less than 10k for its vol.1 (Granted, MaoYuu's performance can be viewed as impressive, but it is still not viewed as a >10k selling title so far.)
As more and more shows get a Final Point Prediction from Amazon Stalker, the picture emerged does not look too good:
MaoYuu 8k+0.6k (BD+DVD)
Minamike4 4.4k+0.6k (BD+DVD)
Kagura 4k+1.2k (BD+DVD)
PuchiMasu 2k+0.6k (BD+DVD)
OreShura 1.5k+1k (BD+DVD)
Amnesia 0.8k+1.2k (BD+DVD)
Hakkenden 1.2k+1k (BD+DVD)
Cuticle Tantei 0.4k+0.8k (BD+DVD)
Admittedly these prediction points may well shift as the season progresses, and some series may get sudden push with their later episodes. However, this also indicates that there is not that much enthusiasm for early preordering and the early episode(s) has failed to catch buyer's imagination thus far. The fact that so many titles showing such a mediocre prediction is a bit worrying.
Of the titles widely thought to be the TOP FOUR of the season, only Love Live has a prediction out yet in Amazon Stalker. At least for this one it is showing good prospect, with 10.4k as the prediction (and even that needs to be taken in perspective - predicted final points for vol.2 is just 4k). On the other hand, the performance of Tamakoma and Haganai2 does not look too encouraging. Some in 2ch Sales Thread now start to temper down the prediction for ViviPan as well. For that I guess what comes up for ep.2 may be a key factor in deciding how it ranks when it is solicited.
Last edited by symbv : 01-15-2013 at 03:21 AM.