Re: Winter 2013 check-up
The following shows have ~2000+ combined points:
4,241 - Love Live!
3,869 - Vividred Operation
3,031 - Maoyuu Maou Yuusha
2,727 - Boku wa tomodachi ga Sukunai NEXT
2,530 - Ore no Kanojo to Osananajimi ga Shuraba Sugiru
1,998 - Minami-ke Tadaima
Love Live doesn't have any major challengers (at least for v1) at the moment. It monopolizes Gamers' #2-8 spots nearly every day which reminds me of Little Busters, a show that outsold Amazon expectations, so it might not be wildly overestimated either. Especially since changes in point calculation have left Stalker erring on the side of underestimating more often than now.
- Vividred isn't far behind in raw points thanks to a strong start but LL's overall trend has been better.
- Maoyuu's points are all early on, it's been ranking very poorly since then. Probably not a top four show in the end.
- Haganai is doing well but is going to be surpassed by OreShura pretty soon. OreShura gets overlooked in ranking discussions more than it should, because people check BDs only and miss that it has nearly 1k DVD points, far more than the other shows aimed at males. On the other hand, that could be all event ticket effect. [Edit: Oh and I keep forgetting OreShura comes out very very early. There are only two weeks left before release, while everything else is March. That changes things a bit.]
- Minami-ke is probably not a top contender but ~2k is ~2k so it's included.
It'll be tough for anything else to get a Top 4 finish unless there's a major momentum shift (which can still happen) or a Dog Days-level storefront effect. But we pretty much knew what our success stories were by this point in Fall, if not their precise ordering/numbers. More interesting are some recent up and coming shows:
1,481 - ZKC Hyoubu Kyousuke isn't really doing anything spectacular, but I'm getting a possible dark horse vibe from it. The reasonably even DVD/BD split could take us by surprise in the end. Lack of appearance on B&M lists could cancel that out.
1,126 - GJ-bu seemed doomed at first but with episode 3 and particularly 4 it caught on. Whether this holds consistently for the rest of the preorder period is another question. It could be another Kotoura-san: lots of attention after its sudden rise in the rankings, only to then drop and flatline. It's down around #600 right now. Will it come back to life?
*,927 - Yama no Susume was solicited very late so I don't know how significant its performance so far is, but it got a better start than I expected. Needs a few more weeks to tell, plus it doesn't even come out until May.
As for storefront:
HMV is always the most varied, so it's harder to discern trends. Fall and Summer shows take most of the top spots, though. Winter shows come and go with weekly airing bumps.
Animate is all about Hetalia Hetalia Hetalia, which is why it should do much better than Stalker predicts. Vividred occasionally shows up, which could imply it's hanging right outside the top 10 with some consistently, but we don't know.
Gamers is all Love Live all the time.
Softmap is pretty much all Love Live too, if not quite as overwhelmingly.
Last edited by something : 02-11-2013 at 02:41 PM.