Anime Sales in Japan - 2010

[something]

Originally Posted by Draneor

I'm not sure what happened, but we stopped buying these kinds of anime about five-four years ago. The days when a good-average VN adaptation could still sell 5,000+ are over. That's why I was actually surprised to see more than one these past couple of seasons.

Makes me wonder, what are the best selling VN adaptations (let's just go ahead and exclude those released by KyoAni for fairness' sake)?

Might look into that when I get home.

[Draneor]

Originally Posted by something

Makes me wonder, what are the best selling VN adaptations (let's just go ahead and exclude those released by KyoAni for fairness' sake)?

Fate/Stay Night (26,047)
Tsukuhime (14,216)
D.C. ~Da Capo~ (13,360)

For the sake of perspective, ToHeart[1] averaged 4,826, Kanon (Toei) 8,919, KimiNozo 8,219, Utawarerumono 7,777, Shuffle 5,669, and ef -a tale of memories- 4,170.

[1]The show that launched the boom by proving you could make a non-adult anime adaptation.

[Fencedude]

Originally Posted by Draneor

Fate/Stay Night (26,047)
Tsukuhime (14,216)
D.C. ~Da Capo~ (13,360)

Why is there a gap in the middle?

...in all seriousness, Fate and that-anime-which-doesn't-exist don't really count, sure, they're Visual Novels, but they aren't...well, Da Capo. I'd say that DC is probably the most successful one which didn't also rely on "hey this is an awesome action show" elements.

[something]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

...in all seriousness, Fate and that-anime-which-doesn't-exist don't really count, sure, they're Visual Novels, but they aren't...well, Da Capo. I'd say that DC is probably the most successful one which didn't also rely on "hey this is an awesome action show" elements.

Yeah, there's always going to be an issue with using a whole medium as your baseline, I admit. FSN and Tsukihime and Utawarerumono could easily sell to someone who has never heard of visual novels (though imagine that is a very small population when we're talking DVD-buying Japanse otaku).

So for the romance side of VNs, it definitely seems like D.C. is the best seller outside of the Key stuff.

[Buster Darkwings]

Originally Posted by Draneor

;_; Another anime only I (and Relentless) bought, I guess. I'll just place them right next to H20. It's a shame too. The bonuses were really nice...

I will be getting it eventually, just trying to hold off on non-essential series for now since the yen is so high. I of course get paid in yen, but the high rate means I can exchange yen for $ and inflate my US bank account a bit more.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by something

I'm not sure if we're seeing that this season, though. Looking at the numbers, it's a fairly gradual increase from bottom to top with plenty of shows in the "not bad, but not a 10k+ hit either" range.

I guess perhaps it's more that (it seems to me that) the median has dropped, while the top sellers remain as high as ever. In other words, I was under the impression (perhaps based on a faulty memory) that sales used to be more spread out than they are now with less shows in the sub-2k range.

Originally Posted by something

BTW, about what range would you describe as "middle ground"? 3k-8k or so

Yeah, something like that. As Draneor suggests, I was probably more reminded of the days when a half-decent visual novel adaptation could still garner ~5,000 sales/volume, which simply doesn't happen anymore. I think they still fund it, though, as a way to promote the games and sell some extra merchandise. Perhaps it really isn't about the home media releases at all for these sorts of shows anymore.

[something]

Originally Posted by Draneor

I'm not sure what happened, but we stopped buying these kinds of anime about five-four years ago. The days when a good-average VN adaptation could still sell 5,000+ are over. That's why I was actually surprised to see more than one these past couple of seasons.

Was wondering... perhaps the visual novel adaptation was unseated by the light novel adaptation, in the boom the latter has had in the past 3-4 years? I'm not sure how much their fanbases overlap but the timing does match up somewhat.

Though either way, some VN adaptations keep getting made... so they must be working on some level. Perhaps we're just seeing the last gasps and the only big hurrah left will be Little Busters!, I don't know.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by something

Was wondering... perhaps the visual novel adaptation was unseated by the light novel adaptation, in the boom the latter has had in the past 3-4 years? I'm not sure how much their fanbases overlap but the timing does match up somewhat.

Well, the average life cycle of an anime fan isn't that long, so a lot of the original VN adaptation fans (as many as there ever were...) likely lost interest in anime a while ago. Combine that with the sort of generally-accepted wisdom that these anime adaptations are typically inferior to their source material (due to the way they generally mangle the plot to fit everything into the allotted time), plus the raised bar of the Kyoto Animation adaptations, and yeah... From a fan perspective I'm not sure if there's a total overlap or transition, but I think the industry certainly appeared to move on for the most part. Certainly, though, the audience for light novels is larger than the audience for visual novels, so it makes sense to chase the larger fish.

Originally Posted by something

Though either way, some VN adaptations keep getting made... so they must be working on some level. Perhaps we're just seeing the last gasps and the only big hurrah left will be Little Busters!, I don't know.

I personally think they'll continue to be made as long as whole "media mix" approach is in vogue. These shows are generally produced by the game publishers anyway, so worst case scenario they can just eat the anime production cost as "advertising" (and I wonder if that is in fact how they see it).

[something]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

I guess perhaps it's more that (it seems to me that) the median has dropped, while the top sellers remain as high as ever. In other words, I was under the impression (perhaps based on a faulty memory) that sales used to be more spread out than they are now with less shows in the sub-2k range.

You may be right, I've never done the research or anything. Wish there were a good source out there that listed anime by season in an easily accessible way. Though I guess just doing it by year off the suki lists is easiest.

2003
1, 1, 1, 1, 1.3, 1.3, 1.3, 1.4, 1.4, 1.4, 1.4, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.6, 1.6, 1.7, 1.7, 1.7, 1.7, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 2.4, 2.4, 2.5, 3, 3, 3, 3.3, 4.4, 4.6, 4.9, 5.1, 5.2, 5.8, 6, 6, 6, 6.7, 6.9, 7.5, 8.6, 14 d.c., 14 tsuki, 14 twins, 22 dbz, 37 fma, 58 seed.

Median - 1.8 (~1.6)
Mean - 5.6
3k-9k - 17 (21% of normal TV anime)
10k club - 6 (Da Capo, Tsukihime, Onegai Twins, DBZ, FMA, Gundam Seed)
Number - 53 ranked.
Note - I went by the date of release rather than date of airing and average rather than Vol. 1 because it's a heck of a lot easier for me that way. A quick check implies that about 20% of shows in a year are kiddy shows we wouldn't factor in and there were a little under 100 in this time period, and approximately ~25 (1/3 of normal TV anime) didn't rank, so add about 25 "*," in front of those 1's, which drops the median to about 1.6 or so. Mean would have to lower as well.

2005
0.7, 1, 1, 1, 1.1, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.7, 1.7, 1.7, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.9, 1.9, 2, 2, 2, 2.1, 2.2, 2.2, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.4, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.7, 2.7, 2.8, 2.8, 2.9, 3.1, 3.7, 4, 4.3, 4.8, 4.9, 5.7, 5.7, 6, 6.1, 6.8, 7.7, 8.3, 8.5, 8.7, 9.6, 10 hime, 11 h&c, 11 shana, 12 bleach, 17 negima, 21 dbgt, 26 fsn, 69 seed-d

Median - 2.5 (~1.8)
Mean - 5.6
3k-9k - 15 (16% of normal TV anime)
10k club - 8 (My-HiME, Honey & Clover, Shakugan no Shana, Bleach, Mahou Sensei Negima, DB GT, Fate/Stay Night, Gundam Seed Destiny)
Number - 63 ranked
Note - Same caveat as above. About 120 TV anime in this period, -20% for kid shows is about 95. Figure about ~30 (1/3 of normal TV anime) didn't rank, so as above, adjust accordingly. Median would slip to about 1.8 or so. Mean would have to lower as well.

2007
1, 1, 1, 1, 1.1, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.6, 1.6, 1.6, 1.7, 1.7, 1.7, 1.7, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.8, 1.9, 1.9, 2, 2, 2, 2.1, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 2.7, 2.8, 3, 3, 3.1, 3.3, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5, 3.5, 3.6, 4.2, 4.2, 4.2, 5.2, 5.4, 5.6, 5.8, 5.9, 5.9, 5.9, 6.1, 6.4, 6.9, 7, 7.2, 7.9, 8.1, 8.5, 8.6, 8.8, 9.5, 9.6, 13 mononoke, 15 gintama s2, 19 oofuri, 20 ttgl, 23 msln-s, 25 clannad, 29 L☆S, 51 geass

Median - 2.8 (~1.8)
Mean - 5.7
3k-9k - 29 (24% of normal TV anime)
10k club - 8 (Mononoke, Gintama S2, Ookiku Furikabutte, Gurren Lagann, Nanoha StrikerS, Clannad, Lucky Star, Code Geass)
Number - 79 ranked
Note - Same caveat as above. About 150 TV anime in this period, -20% for kid shows is about 120. Figure about ~40 (1/3 of normal TV anime) didn't rank, so as above, adjust accordingly. Median would slip to about 1.8 or so. Mean would have to lower as well.

2009
0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 0.9, 0.9, 1, 1, 1, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.5, 1.6, 1.6, 1.7, 1.7, 1.9, 1.9, 2, 2, 2.1, 2.1, 2.2, 2.4, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, 2.6, 2.8, 3, 3, 3.1, 3.4, 3.4, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 3.7, 3.9, 4, 4.1, 4.2, 4.2, 4.7, 5, 5.1, 5.7, 5.9, 6.1, 6.6, 7, 7.4, 7.5, 8, 8.5, 8.6, 10 natsume, 10 queensblade, 11 toradora, 12 dtb2, 12 fma:b, 12 index, 13 gintama s4, 14 kuroshitsuji, 15 haruhi-chan, 19 shny 2k9, 23 hetalia, 34 g00 s2, 43 k-on, 78 bake

Median - 2.1 (~1.9)
Mean - 5.3
3k-9k - 27 (27% of normal TV anime)
10k club - 14 (Natsume Yuujinchou, Queen's Blade, Toradora!, Darker than Black 2, FMA remake, Toaru Majutsu no Index, Gintama S4, Kuroshitsuji, Haruhi-chan, Haruhi 2k9, Hetalia, Gundam 00 S2, K-ON!, Bakemonogatari)
Number - 95 ranked
Note - Same caveat as above. About 125 TV anime in this period, -20% for kid shows is about 100. This means that ~5 shows (~%5) didn't rank. Median would slip to about 1.9 or so.

__________________________________________________ _________________

I think I can see exactly what it is that might make you think sales are becoming more polarized, though I think this offers an explanation as to why.

It's not so much that sales have changed their spread dramatically, it's that sales reporting is drastically better. At first glance the mass of sub-1k shows in the 2009 list is pretty shocking compared to '03-'07. But when you realize that shows simply didn't make it onto the charts with sales under 1k back then, it suddenly becomes more obvious.

The real tell-tale sign? The much lower percentage of unranked shows. Instead of 30-35% of shows not ranking it's more like 5%. Let's assume that my 20% kiddy shows is outdated now and it's only like 10% kiddy shows nowadays. Even then, the number of unranked shows is less than half of what it was in previous years. 2010 seems to be continuing this trend. Of the 46 Vol 1's I've recorded numbers for so far, only 1 has not ranked. I think I guesstimated one, so make that 2.

Some reasons? Definitely BD. The threshold for reaching the Oricon BD Top 50 is usually half of what the DVD Top 100 threshold is in a given week, and can go as low as 200-300 in slow weeks. This is of course because BD has yet to become as pervasive in the mainstream as DVD, and anime therefore dominates the BD charts. Even abject failures can make the Oricon BD charts at least once. Tokyo Magnitude 8.0 is a perfect example. 5 volumes, no DVDs ranked and only 1 BD ranked, with 509 copies sold. That never would have appeared on sales lists in earlier years.

Also very important? Because DVD sales so often are never publicly known for dual-format low sellers, a lot of those shows below 3k may be getting shortchanged by fully half. So night Raid sold like 500 BDs, and gets recorded as a .5 show. What if it sold 500 DVDs? That just doubled. Except we'll never know because you need to move between 1200 and 1500 most weeks to hit Oricon DVD 100. For a more successful example, Sora no Woto. If that one volume's DVD had not charted, we'd have it down as having sold below 3k average instead of the almost 4k average we can cite knowing that it moved on average 900-1200 DVDs/vol.

Other than that, I guess my comments are:
- Median and mean sales are remarkably consistent.
- Number of shows not ranking on sales charts was also consistent until 2009 (~30-35% down to 5-15%).
- 2009 actually has a normal number of shows between 3k and 9k. If anything, it's slightly higher.
- 2009 definitely saw a huge boost in the number of major hits. I'd say it's also a good thing, in light of all the other statistics.
- All my numbers have a margin of error! But I think that the conclusions are generally defensible in the aggregate.

[relentlessflame]

Props to you for doing all the math and research there!

I guess where all this leaves us (and I hate to make this sound like another homework assignment, so please don't feel at all obligated -- I feel badly that you went through all that work already! ) is the overall question of whether the home media market for anime in Japan has actually shrunk over the last 6 years. My general shoot-from-the-hip impression would be that Blu-Ray has sort of given the JP anime market the cushion it needed to prevent the market from continuing to decline (which is why it has been embraced nearly ubiquitously by the Japanese publishers over the last year or so), but "conventional wisdom" suggests that the overall size of the market pool hasn't changed or expanded. And, finally, I suppose it all builds to the question of whether this whole thing is sustainable for the next 5, 10, who knows how many years... but that's a question I doubt we as fans will ever have enough info to answer.