Anime Sales in Japan - 2011

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by something

Heh I don't think I'm willing to go quite that far, at least not yet. The amount of points given for first seems disproportionately large to me, which is probably why shows like K-ON! and Angel Beats! only made about 3 real sales per amazon stalker points. But this does say that Madoka should open at the very least at 30k - and realistically, far more. 40k seems like a bare minimum of BDs at this point. I always err on the side of being conservative with my guesses though. So who knows?

Here's the accumulative points relative to sales on a 1,000pt basis that's been tossed around the 2ch thread. It has comparisons to K-ON!!, AB!, and TOV as well.

魔法少女まどか☆マギカ 1 【完全生産限定版】 [Blu-ray]
最高順位 ***,**2位(2011年03月01日)
最低順位 ***,*69位(2011年01月21日)
平均順位 ***,*11位
発売日 2011-03-30
最新累積ポイント 7556pt (注意 2010年夏アニメ以前のものは1巻以外登録がおかしいため不正確です)
最終予測累積ポイント 16698pt(残り日数24)

　　　　　　　　　　　　　最終累積pt　下限95%　  下限68%　　 平均値　 上限68%　上限95%
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　10000pt　　　34858　　　36463　　　38073　　39682　　41288
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　11000pt　　　38158　　　39886　　　41619　　43351　　45080
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　12000pt　　　41457　　　43309　　　45165　　47021　　48872
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　13000pt　　　44757　　　46732　　　48711　　50690　　52664
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　14000pt　　　48057　　　50154　　　52257　　54359　　56456　今後4位でココ
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　15000pt　　　51357　　　53577　　　55803　　58028　　60248
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　16000pt　　　54657　　　57000　　　59348　　61697　　64040　今後3位でココ
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　17000pt　　　57957　　　60423　　　62894　　65366　　67832　←いまココ
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　18000pt　　　61256　　　63845　　　66440　　69035　　71624
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　19000pt　　　64556　　　67268　　　69986　　72704　　75416
魔法少女 まどかマギカ 1巻　20000pt　　　67856　　　70691　　　73532　　76373　　79208　今後2位でココ
※注意　BD初動のみ

作品名　　   累積pt   BD初動　  下限99%　  下限95%　  下限68%　　平均値　　  上限68%　  上限95%　上限99%
けいおん!!　  7600　　29097　　　25401　　　26938　　　28249　　　29563　　　30876　　　32187　　　33724
AB　　　　   7393　　23497　　　24748　　　26255　　　27540　　　28829　　　30117　　　31402　　　32909
TOV　　　    7086　　28123　　　23779　　　25242　　　26490　　　27740　　　28991　　　30238　　　31701

Kimi ni Todoke ended up under 6k with 632 points so I don't think 600-700 would translate into 10k for Madoka.

KnT seems like an exception whether than a rule, or maybe it's just DVD sales are sporadic in general (I think I've mentioned this before). From my experience though, selling around the mid-200s translates to 4,000; mid-300s is around 6,000; 500 and more is 8,000-10,000 territory. But like I said, basing sales for DVDs off of points is a lot less reliable than BDs for whatever reason.

[something]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

Here's the accumulative points relative to sales on a 1,000pt basis that's been tossed around the 2ch thread. It has comparisons to K-ON!!, AB!, and TOV as well.

Yeah, those numbers look pretty reasonable. Seems to be using a ~3x to ~4x modifier which is where I'd expect it to be as well. But like I said, I prefer to be wrong by under-guessing than over-guessing for whatever reason. Avoiding getting hopes up I guess. Also nice to be pleasantly surprised when something sells more than you expected.

KnT seems like an exception whether than a rule, or maybe it's just DVD sales are sporadic in general (I think I've mentioned this before). From my experience though, selling around the mid-200s translates to 4,000; mid-300s is around 6,000; 500 and more is 8,000-10,000 territory. But like I said, basing sales for DVDs off of points is a lot less reliable than BDs for whatever reason.

Hm, OreImo v1 DVD did 5,093 on ~312pt so yeah I can see that. Star Driver did 5,071 on ~320pt.

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by something

Hm, OreImo v1 DVD did 5,093 on ~312pt so yeah I can see that. Star Driver did 5,071 on ~320pt.

And Railgun did 6,523 on 333pt. It's just too sporadic. I guess at the very least we can say that 300=5,000-6,000 range.

Also, I found this very amusing.

http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-1122.html

[Fencedude]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

And Railgun did 6,523 on 333pt. It's just too sporadic. I guess at the very least we can say that 300=5,000-6,000 range.

Also, I found this very amusing.

http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-1122.html

Ok, thats pretty funny.

At least one country in the world has decent taste in entertainment!

[angelx03]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

Ok, thats pretty funny.

At least one country in the world has decent taste in entertainment!

And one.....doesn't. I mean, what the heck, Germany?!

[einhorn303]

Originally Posted by angelx03

And one.....doesn't. I mean, what the heck, Germany?!

Die Legend von Aang at #2? Seriously? The only possible explanation for this is that the TV anime was never broadcast there.

Although I imagine at least some of the differences here are due to different release schedules across different countries.

[something]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

Also, I found this very amusing.
http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-1122.html

Haha, yeah, I was showing strangefour that earlier. Japan is superior after all.

[something]

http://jbbs.livedoor.jp/bbs/read.cgi.../1293278942/62
http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-1193.html

Full list. 615 DVD threshold, 233 BD.

I was wondering if we'd get a list, but I think it's the next list that might be a bit more dicey. I have no idea how well Oricon will be able to compile the data for the 14th to 20th...

Weekly rank | Previous week | Weekly sales | Total sales | # weeks on list | Title

Note: LE is assumed unless it doesn't exist or otherwise specified.
Note: Bold for the TV anime Vol. 1s.

2011 03/07~3/13 Oricon DVD Top 100
16 --- 4,601 *,**4,601 **1 To Aru Majutsu no Index DVD Box v2 LE
24 --- 2,313 *,**2,313 **1 To Aru Majutsu no Index DVD Box v2 RE
43 **3 1,291 *,*10,807 **2 Sengoku Basara 2 v6
53 --- *,972 *,***,972 **1 OVA BLACK LAGOON Roberta's Blood Trail 004
69 *87 *,809 1,060,712 481 Tonari no Totoro
76 --- *,771 *,***,771 **1 Arakawa Under the Bridge x Bridge v3
83 **8 *,721 *,**6,708 **2 Kimi ni Todoke 2nd Season v1
89 --- *,670 *,***,670 **1 Supernatural the Animation First Season Collector's DVD Box v1
100 (*,615)

2011 03/07~3/13 Oricon BD Top 50
*3 -- 3,962 **3,962 *1 OVA BLACK LAGOON Roberta's Blood Trail 004
*6 -- 1,971 **1,971 *1 Onii-chan no Koto Nanka Zenzen Suki ja nain Dakara ne!! v1
*7 -- 1,647 **1,647 *1 Kami Nomi zo Shiru Sekai v3
*9 -- 1,039 **1,039 *1 Arakawa Under the Bridge x Bridge v3
14 20 *,618 106,750 15 Kidou Senshi Gundam UC v2
15 -- *,574 ***,574 *1 Supernatural the Animation First Season Collector's BD Box v1
16 -- *,562 ***,562 *1 Dragon Crisis! v1
23 *1 *,380 **8,954 *2 Shinryaku! Ikamusume v3
29 35 *,321 107,892 42 Kidou Senshi Gundam UC v1
30 24 *,316 **2,620 *2 Supernatural the Animation First Season BD Box v1
31 *2 *,311 **4,447 *2 Katanagatari v12 Entou Juu
33 *8 *,301 *13,012 *3 To Aru Majutsu no Index II v2
38 11 *,284 *30,925 *4 K-ON!! v8
40 *9 *,275 *18,220 *3 Ore no Imouto ga Konna ni Kawaii Wake ga Nai v3
43 53 *,261 *22,592 10 Tenkuu no Shiro Laputa
44 15 *,259 **7,029 *3 Star Driver Kagayaki no Takuto v2
50 (*,233)



Winter update:
Lackluster numbers for our new Vol 1s. Onii-chan no Koto Nanka Zenzen Suki ja nain Dakara ne!! vol. 1(or "Ochinko" as the Japanese like to abbreviate it ) pulls in 1,971 BDs and DVDs don't rank, so less than 615. probably a lot less.

Dragon Crisis! vol. 1 fares a lot worse though, pulling only 562 BDs, no DVD ranking. This is potentially going ot be one of the most lopsided/top-heavy seasons ever in terms of sales.

Kimi ni Todoke 2nd Season adds 721 to 6,708.


Fall update:
Shinryaku! Ikamusume vol. 3 adds a little more thanks to low thresholds, increasing 380 to 8,954. Oh so close to the 9k mark. It sells shit for DVDs but it has to be moving at least 57 (realistically, a few hundred), so we'll call it over 9k!

To Aru Majutsu no Index II Vol. 2 adds 301 to 17,275.

Ore no Imouto ga Konna ni Kawaii Wake ga Nai Vol. 3 adds 275 to 22,605.

Star Driver Vol. 2 gets 259 for 10,204, topping the 10k mark.

Kami Nomi zo Shiru Sekai vol. 3 starts at 1,647 BDs.

Arakawa 2 manages 1,039/771 to not even pass the 2k mark. 1,810 total.



Past seasons:
Sengoku Basara 2 vol. 6 adds 1,291 to total 10,807.



K-ON!:
K-ON!!
!! Vol 1: 42,433 (12 wk)
!! Vol 2: 39,247 (*9 wk)
!! Vol 3: 38,747 (*7 wk)
!! Vol 4: 38,019 (*5 wk)
!! Vol 5: 39,707 (*5 wk)
!! Vol 6: 36,756 (*5 wk)
!! Vol 7: 34,855 (*5 wk)
!! Vol 8: 34,359 -> 34,643 (*4 wk) - adds 284 BDs. May pass Vol. 7 if it gets a 5th week as well.


OVAs, Movies, Boxsets etc:
To Aru Majutsu no Index DVD box finishes up with 4,601 LE, 2,313 RE for 6,914.

If we get numbers for the next week, it'll include Merry v1. It hit during the worst time though, so distribution seems to be predictably limited (still waiting on mine from Amazon). I suppose Oricon already has the preorder counts but I have no idea how well B&M sales can be counted.


Link to Vol. 1 Sales by Season

[something]

http://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=289351

Preliminary list. Mostly posting because this means we'll likely see data for last week, provided the guy who posts it is okay.

K-ON!! v9, the final volume, moved 3,138 DVDs. Down a good bit from v8 which did 3,718 DVDs first week, but certainly I would imagine distribution problems from the events of that week and impacts on B&M availability had an effect. We won't know how well it does second week, though, since it won't be enough to rank. I guess this volume might end up slightly under-counted. We'll see how the BDs do though.

[Quarkboy]

I'm pretty surprised at the lackluster performance of Supernatural the Animation First Season BD Box v1 + the collector's edition only turning in ~3,000 sales.

Especially since it's the cheapest anime blu-ray like, ever. Volume 1 with 2 episodes sells for 500 yen, and the box with episodes 3-12 sells for ~7500 yen or so. Just goes to show you that
Even if your show is squarely aimed at Japan's "mainstream"...
Even if you price it at or below the cheapest blu-rays on the market in Japan, animated or no...

Blu-rays just do NOT sell except to hard core otaku.