Anime Sales in Japan - 2011

[scineram]

I am hoping it does 60k/10k on all volumes, everything else is a bonus.

But Hanasaku Iroha is so damn late, end of July. I wonder if the obligatory beach/mizugi episode gives it a bump. Does it also have one episode on first disk?

[Suzuku]

No, its volume is at full price (it's actually more expensive per-volume than Nichijou).

[Aanon]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

Am I the only one who really doesn't think that whether or not Madoka beats Bakemono isn't particularly important?

Its still going to be the most successful original anime since Evangelion, no matter what!

Eh well, if it was just Bake vs. Madoka, no one would bother but since it's a question of who'll hold the anime record on sales, it's of interest to people following sales. I think it's particularly interesting to people because this appears to be a close race where it'll take months to know the outcome--always more exciting that way, right? There's been enough uncertainty where I'd personally be conservative calling it one way or the other. Madoka first week sales were lower than 2ch estimates. On the other hand, 2ch thought Madoka would hold third place in records, but it seems like it's establishing itself pretty solidly in second place at least. Although there's some justification that 2ch seems more fixated than usual on following this subject. Madoka's really popular there, some 1500+ threads last I checked for its main thread count, which is an unprecedented amount of discussion for an anime.

[something]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

Am I the only one who really doesn't think that whether or not Madoka beats Bakemono isn't particularly important?

Of cosmic, universal importance to our lives? No.

Important in a thread that does nothing but discuss anime sales numbers all day every day? Well... yes. I think it's very interesting to see whether Madoka becomes the second best selling first-run average ever. Whether it beat Bake or not won't change how good a show it is, or the fact that it's a huge success, but of course we're going to ponder the question in this thread.

Originally Posted by Suzuku

No, its volume is at full price (it's actually more expensive per-volume than Nichijou).

True. But it also gives more episodes per volume (3) and the last disc is somewhat discounted. First 8 are ￥8,190 and the last is ￥6,615. Nichijou's awful pricing comes not from the per volume price (which is high-ish at ￥7,980 but not anything like Gosick's ¥9,240) but the fact that it's 13 frickin volumes... I think anyone would prefer the 9 volume approach of Hanasaku or Steins or K-ON!! for two cour. Works out to a lot less in the long run. Even Steins' ¥8,820 is ¥79,380 total to Nichijou's ¥103,740 (though I think Nichijou is two episodes longer?)

Originally Posted by scineram

I see. However I fear Madoka's DVD numbers might be hurt by being very BD heavy. The recent half year list had about 10k cutoff. Since Madoka DVDs sell around that level they might not even chart, or at least not all of them, in the year end ranking, missing out on adjustments.
By the way your sheet has the volume 2 week 4 number wrong. The inconsistency is already here.

If it misses out on anything on the DVD end, it should account for a relatively small percentage. Probably not enough to make or break unless it's really close.

And thanks, correction made.

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

Am I the only one who really doesn't think that whether or not Madoka beats Bakemono isn't particularly important?

Its still going to be the most successful original anime since Evangelion, no matter what!

that's what this thread is for.. And most of the top ten all time are original productions anyway, bake may be the only adaption in the top 10.... Off memory.. Eva, MSG, bake, madoka, destiny, seed, geass, frontier and than.. Can't remember..

So if anything it's harder for an adaption to become an all time top seller....

[something]

Originally Posted by Westlo

that's what this thread is for.. And most of the top ten all time are original productions anyway, bake may be the only adaption in the top 10.... Off memory.. Eva, MSG, bake, madoka, destiny, seed, geass, frontier and than.. Can't remember..
So if anything it's harder for an adaption to become an all time top seller....

It is kind of amazing how original anime seems to get a bad rep, sales-wise (not entirely undeserved), but when they click, they can click hard.

It's sketchy comparing pre-2000 and 2000-onwards but if we include re-releases for the pre-2000 shows but not 2000-present shows we get this:
01)　　171,100 - Evangelion (111,558 1st run)
02)　　*81,730 - 1st Gundam (*28,078 1st run)
03)　　*78,671 - Bakemonogatari
04)　　*69,496 - Madoka Magica (to wk1 of vol 3)
05)　　*68,729 - Gundam Seed Destiny
06)　　*58,205 - Gundam Seed
07)　　*52,923 - Dragonball GT (*31,696 1st run)
08)　　*52,677 - Z Gundam (*20,307 1st run)
09)　　*50,552 - Code Geass: Hangyaku no Lelouch
10)　　*46,258 - Macross Frontier

Bake and DB GT are the only adaptations, the rest are original.

If we go by 1st run numbers only, no rereleases at all, it's:
01)　　111,558 - Evangelion
02)　　*78,671 - Bakemonogatari
03)　　*69,496 - Madoka Magica (to vol 3)
04)　　*68,729 - Mobile Suit Gundam SEED Destiny
05)　　*58,205 - Mobile Suit Gundam SEED
06)　　*50,552 - Code Geass: Hangyaku no Lelouch
07)　　*46,258 - Macross Frontier
08)　　*43,883 - K-ON!
09)　　*42,690 - Code Geass: Hangyaku no Lelouch R2
10)　　*41,038 - Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuuutsu

Really just the 2000-present Top 10 with K-ON!! dropping to 11 and Eva in 1st... This is 3/10 being adaptations, with Bake, K-ON! and Haruhi. Original anime does dominate in the highest tiers, though not as much when you extend the list below 40k.

[Suzuku]

Numbers are out. Wow, AnoHana killing it with a 39k opening week. Can't help but wonder how much of that is due to the discounted price though. It also ended up doing almost exactly as I expected.

T&B2 has a big second week, so it still had some pretty heavy distro problems. It could hit 20k. something, I think you should replace vol 1's numbers with vol 2 in the season list, since vol 2 is more representative of how the sales would be if not for the distro problems.

And AoEx is now at 20k, awesome.

[something]

http://jbbs.livedoor.jp/bbs/read.cgi...1293278942/129
http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-2667.html [DVD]
http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-2702.html [BD]

Full list. 390 DVD threshold, 436 BD.


2011 06/27~07/03 DVD List
*1 (**3) **3 23,551 *,199,682 **3 Karigurashi no Arietty
*2 (**7) --- *7,508 *,**7,508 **1 Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai v1
*3 (*15) **5 *4,522 *,*24,736 **2 ONE PIECE Log Collection "SKYPIEA"
*4 (*17) *12 *3,249 *,*10,140 **2 Sket Dance v0
*5 (*30) --- *2,047 *,**2,047 **1 Beelzebub v1
*6 (*39) **8 *1,659 *,*12,551 **2 Ao no Exorcist v1
*7 (*43) *72 *1,453 1,078,513 497 Tonari no Totoro
*8 (*52) *19 *1,212 *,**5,786 **2 Sekai-ichi Hatsukoi v1
*9 (*60) *10 *1,021 *,**8,779 **2 Infinite Stratos v3
10 (*63) **9 *,*962 *,**9,490 **2 Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica v3
11 (*65) --- *,*909 *,329,058 287 Mononoke-hime
12 (*75) --- *,*742 *,457,368 445 Majo no Takkyuubin
13 (*80) --- *,*702 *,727,900 451 Tenkuu no Shiro Laputa
15 (*90) --- *,*654 *,***,654 **1 OVA Senjou no Valkyria 3 (Blue) v1
16 (*91) *31 *,*644 *,**3,499 **2 Starry☆Sky v5
17 (*97) *21 *,*606 *,**4,714 **2 Ore no Imouto ga Konna ni Kawaii Wake ga Nai v7
18 (*98) --- *,*603 *,**6,808 **3 Yuugiou ~Chouyuugou! Jikuu wo Koeta Kizuna~
19 (107) *36 *,*546 *,**3,138 **2 Yondemasu to, Azazel-san v1
20 (108) *20 *,*540 *,**4,672 **2 To Aru Majutsu no Index II v5
22 (***) --- *,*502 *,639,566 332 Kaze no Tani no Nausicaä
23 (***) *30 *,*495 *,**3,442 **2 BLEACH Arrancar Metsubou-hen v5
24 (***) *39 *,*431 *,**2,714 **2 Star Driver Kagayaki no Takuto v6
25 (***) *37 *,*430 *,**2,779 **2 Hidan no Aria v1
26 (***) --- *,*418 *,895,934 *84 Gake no Ue no Ponyo
30 (***) --- *,*390 *,*62,810 *13 Kidou Senshi Gundam UC v3


2011 06/27~07/03 BD List
*1 (*1) -- 31,069 31,069 *1 Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai v1
*2 (*5) *8 *3,813 49,943 *3 Karigurashi no Arietty
*3 (*6) *2 *3,374 26,059 *2 Tiger & Bunny v2
*4 (*7) *1 *3,166 55,006 *2 Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica v3
*5 (*8) 10 *2,048 *8,559 *2 Natsume Yuujinchou BD Box
*6 (*9) *3 *1,738 23,935 *2 Infinite Stratos v3
*7 (10) *5 *1,667 13,469 *2 Steins;Gate v1
*8 (11) -- *1,620 *1,620 *1 OVA Senjou no Valkyria 3 (Blue) v1
*9 (13) *7 *1,486 11,636 *2 Kidou Senshi Gundam Gyakushuu no Char
10 (14) *4 *1,397 18,128 *2 Ore no Imouto ga Konna ni Kawaii Wake ga Nai v7
-- (15) -- *1,141 *1,141 *1 OVA Senjou no Valkyria 3 (Black) v1
-- (16) *9 **,938 *8,256 *2 Ao no Exorcist v1
-- (17) *6 **,913 12,503 *2 To Aru Majutsu no Index II v5
-- (18) -- **,861 *6,745 *2 Kidou Senshi Gundam F91
-- (19) 14 **,856 *6,505 *2 Yondemasu to, Azazel-san v1
-- (20) 15 **,847 *6,114 *2 Denpa Onna to Seishun Otoko v1
-- (26) 40 **,612 60,714 *6 Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica v2
-- (27) 16 **,597 *5,686 *2 Akira
-- (32) 44 **,563 66,001 10 Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica v1
-- (33) 20 **,537 *4,544 *2 Hidan no Aria v1
-- (37) 17 **,502 *5,394 *2 Star Driver Kagayaki no Takuto v6
-- (38) 66 **,500 *2,833 *4 Tiger & Bunny v1 RE
-- (44) 21 **,467 *4,366 *2 Tantei Opera Milky Holmes v6
-- (45) 27 **,461 *3,081 *2 Nichijou v1
-- (47) 22 **,452 *4,149 *2 A Channel v2
50 (*,436)



Spring update:
AnoHana v1 does 31069/7505 for 38,577 first week! Will easily pass 40k next week. So the big question is, how much will vol 2 drop off? At any rate, go go Menma!

SketDan v0 has a massive second week, adding nearly 50% of its week one total (3249) to top 10k at 10,140 DVDs. Could get a third or even fourth week easily at that rate. Have to take the price into account though.

Ao no Exorcist v1 adds 938/1659 and takes itself over 20k to 20,807.

Steins v1 adds 1667 BDs to 13,469. This has to be the highest selling show to not rank on DVD ever.

Azazel-san v1 adds 856/546 to total 9,643. Still short of 10k, but only just.

Sekai-ichi v1 adds 1212 for 5,786.

Denpa Onna v1 adds 847 BDs to total 7,475. DVDs didn't rank.

Hidan v1 adds 537/430 for 7,323. Still a little short of Denpa even with the benefit of being a little more spread out and thus getting a second week DVD Denpa didn't get.

Tiger&Bunny v2 does just as big a second week as v1, though smaller proportionally. 3,374 brings us to 27,130, well ahead of v1 even with v1's 1.8k REs. This is probably more like a 28-30k show than v1 would imply.
Speaking of REs, v1 RE ranks yet again, totaling 2,833. That's the fourth week which means it did 535 last week and 500 this week. This is just unheard of. Total is now 25,010.

Nichijou v1 manages to get a second week of BDs in (yay - though probably for the only time), adding 461 and taking the total to 4,005.

A Channel v2 adds 452 BDs, total 5,461. Hopefully it stays consistent at that level for 2+, so its average stays well above 5k. I want a sequel for this.


Winter update:
Beelzebub v1 finally comes out, so I can close out my Winter v1 list. 2,027.

Madoka Magica v3 adds 3166/962 for 64,496. I think we're finally seeing it slow down, as that's a fairly significant 2nd week BD number drop off v2 (450). Or maybe it'll be like Bake and v3 is just a little cursed? Sayaka = Suruga? Well probably not, there's no Nadeko or bonus eps to bring v4-6 up over v3 for Madoka. 1-2 ranked again too.

Infinite Stratos v3 adds 1783/1021 and beings itself about in line with v2 at 32,759. It could be nearly tied after a third week. I guess it'll be pretty steads after dropping 5k/13% off v1. Though anime power ranking adjustments ought to close some of that gap, since that's where nearly half of v1's lead comes from.

Starry Sky v5 adds 644 and gets to 3,499.


Past seasons:
OreImo v7 adds 1397/606 which totals 22,842 and brings it up to vol. 4 levels. It'll pass v4 next week although v3 (24k) might be a stretch without anime power ranking adjustments. Certainly it's staved off the usual decline though, increasing 4.6% over v6 so far.

Index II v5 sees a bump, adding 913/540 and hitting 17,175. That's a 2.7% increase over v4.

Star Driver v6 adds 502/431. Total 8,108. I'm going to leave it off the 10k list for now unless it sees a sudden bump, because it's only 10,027 and it won't keep on after next vol, and I don't feel like constantly adding and removing it.

Milky Holmes v6 adds 467 BDs, taking its total to 5,329 and its final average to 6,084.


Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica:
Vol 1: 76,980 -> 77,543 (10 wk) - Adds 563 BDs. Double digits of weeks ranked, not something I was sure it would do or not initially.
Vol 2: 71,140 -> 71,752 (*6 wk) - Adds 612 BDs.
Vol 3: 60,368 -> 64,496 (*2 wk) - Adds 3166/962.
Vol 4: **,*** (** wk)
Vol 5: **,*** (** wk)
Vol 6: **,*** (** wk)


OVAs, Movies, Boxsets etc:
Arietty is up to 249,625.

Natsume Yuujinchou season 1-2 BD box actually adds a very strong 2,048 mean its total is 8,559. More units than Lucky Star. Huge for a show that "only" does 10k to begin with! Bodes well for season three. In fact, that gets it on our list of best selling BD boxes comfortably ahead of Eureka. It's also the cheapest one to make the list. It would slightly nudge out Clannad if the MSRP were a step up at ¥36,750, although perhaps it would have sold a bit less too.

¥1356.6m (34,000 * ￥39,900) - Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuuutsu
¥*456.7m (12,427 * ￥36,750) - Strike Witches (7,011 + 5,416)
¥*356.6m (*9,703 * ￥36,750) - Darker than Black
¥*340.1m (*8,524 * ￥39,900) - Lucky Star
¥*322.6m (*5,155 * ￥62,580) - Clannad After Story
¥*310.4m (*4,960 * ￥62,580) - Clannad
¥*287.6m (*8,559 * ¥33,600) - Natsume Yuujinchou seasons 1-2
¥*228.4m (*6,214 * ￥36,750) - Eureka Seven

Two new shows make the 10k list. Sket Dance and AnoHana! Sket isn't going to stay there for its entire run though.


Link to TV anime top-sellers list
Link to Vol. 1 Sales by Season

[something]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

T&B2 has a big second week, so it still had some pretty heavy distro problems. It could hit 20k. something, I think you should replace vol 1's numbers with vol 2 in the season list, since vol 2 is more representative of how the sales would be if not for the distro problems.

Yeah, I was thinking about it, either doing that or adding a note. It's a weird situation, the only time I needed to do that before that I can remember is when shows didn't rank v1 but ranked v2+. And adding a note when v2 sold less, not more. But yeah, swapped v2 in. Though its actual rank probably won't be affected.

You know, if Azazel can add a little more we will have six 10k+ v1s this season, albeit two only barely.

And AnoHana makes 6 10k+ shows for A1 Pictures already. And the two this season are their two highest, assuming AoEx stays ahead of Oofuri. Having six ties them with Deen. It'll be a little while though before they pass the next studio, JC Staff, who has 9.

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

Numbers are out. Wow, AnoHana killing it with a 39k opening week. Can't help but wonder how much of that is due to the discounted price though. It also ended up doing almost exactly as I expected.

But the discounted price is due to only having one episode on the disc, I don't really think it's much of a factor at all. Tiger and Bunny had a similar discount and hasn't suffered at all (though we'll never know how well Vol 1 should've sold). Something like Merry otoh while also one episode was more discounted than Anohana/T&B. Sket Dance volume 1 is also really heavily discounted as well... Merry had quite the dropoff, Sket Dance will more than likely be the cut in half @ least...

I don't expect AnoHana to suffer much more than a typical Vol 2 drops off from Vol 1. Even Madoka is starting to show series fatigue... Vol 1's 2nd week was 6021, Vol 2's 2nd was 4698 and Vol 3's is 4121. 3rd volume isn't keeping pace with Vol 2 at all..