Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by BigOnAnime

As for Shana III, yeah pretty much only the dedicated fans are left. Shana III for so many people is garbage. I absolutely loved seasons 1 and 2, but season 3, I don't even know how it could have turned out like it did. It was such a massive letdown.

It's neither here nor there, but I think this is actually an interesting case study in the consequences of anime-original changes negatively impacting future adaptations. The third anime was very faithful to the original novels, but the previous seasons (particularly the second) were not. But even interest in the novels started to wane in recent years as the ending continued to drag on. By choosing to stay faithful to the novels, they may have alienated some of the fans who liked the slight change in emphasis the anime delivered in the second season.

I guess, in the end, we'll never know if the main cause for the sales drop was the long wait, the choice of staying faithful to the novels this time, or whatever other factors. That said, I do know a lot of people who absolutely adored the last season, so I suppose it depends on your point of view.

[something]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

I guess, in the end, we'll never know if the main cause for the sales drop was the long wait, the choice of staying faithful to the novels this time, or whatever other factors. That said, I do know a lot of people who absolutely adored the last season, so I suppose it depends on your point of view.

In my eyes it only became a total clusterfuck in the last third or last quarter or so, well after it was clear the show was going to sell poorly. I can't think of any shows where I've had so much trouble sorting out my feelings. It was quite honestly one of the best things I'd ever seen for like... 18 episodes or whatever, during which time I was totally ready to give it a top 5% "10/10" rating and best of the season. And then it rapidly became this utterly ponderous narrative monster for no good reason I can ascertain other than slaving adherence to novels that much have been equally ponderous. And then I really loved the very very ending. Now I don't know what the hell to think, but I'm continuing to import it all because I don't know if ~5 very awkward episodes justifies dropping what was otherwise so brilliant. If I had disliked the ending, I'm almost certain my opinion would be much more negative and I'd have dropped it. At least after Vol. 6 or so. But I feel like the very ending was nailed, so dropping it feels wrong.

Gah.

[something]

Originally Posted by something

April 23rd - 29th
*5, 14,509 101,357 Hyouka
Since the novel came out more than 10 years ago, I don't know what it was before it ranked the week of the 9th, or how much it had sold before the anime was announced, But it's definitely picking up steam.

Ok so the MAL lists just don't go low enough: http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-9228.html

April 23rd - 29th
34位　**位　*5回　**8,965部　*45,935部　02/07/31　***日　愚者のエンドロール

The second book made the list as well, in the third week since Hyouka came back into the rankings. Does anyone know where on livedoor or wherever light novel/novel sales are posted? I only know the anime and music sales sections but I know there are people who follow novels as closely as I follow DVD/BDs.

[Draneor]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

It's neither here nor there, but I think this is actually an interesting case study in the consequences of anime-original changes negatively impacting future adaptations. The third anime was very faithful to the original novels, but the previous seasons (particularly the second) were not.

Shrug. I liked the first half of Shana II that everyone hated, but found the last two OVAs and what I saw of III to be entirely uninteresting. Perhaps that's it--I just preferred the anime original stuff. Or it could just be that I could list 10 a dozen tsundere characters that I prefer over Shana (who wasn't even my favorite character in her show to begin with). Time moves on and I go with it, I guess.

[something]

http://jbbs.livedoor.jp/bbs/read.cgi...278942/348-349

Full list is out, and the following was added. Original post has been updated accordingly.


2012 04/23~04/29 BD List
-- (24) -- *2,571 **2,571 *1 Last Exile -Ginyoku no Fam- v4
-- (25) -- *2,507 **2,507 *1 Shakugan no Shana III -Final- v5
-- (27) -- *2,018 **2,018 *1 Mashiro-iro Symphony v4
-- (28) -- *1,879 **1,879 *1 C3 v5
-- (29) -- *1,877 **1,877 *1 Another v2
-- (30) -- *1,868 **1,868 *1 Maken-ki! v5
-- (32) -- *1,747 **1,747 *1 Nichijou v11
-- (33) -- *1,653 **1,653 *1 Mirai Nikki v5
-- (34) -- *1,624 **1,624 *1 Zero no Tsukaima F v3
-- (35) -- *1,460 **1,460 *1 Tantei Opera Milky Holmes 2 v2
-- (39) -- *1,071 **1,071 *1 Suite Precure BD Box v3
-- (42) -- **,968 ***,968 *1 BRAVE10 v2
-- (43) 67 **,963 **6,572 *3 Mouretsu Pirates v2
-- (50) (*,712)

-- (49) *4 **,807 **7,701 *2 Tiger & Bunny Hero Awards 2011

Yay, Mouretsu made it! barely. Threshold is too high for v1 though.


Winter update:
Brave10 v2 drops a lot, nearly 50% on DVD. 968/1674 for 2,642, down 40% on v1 wk1.

Zero no Tsukaima F v3 sells 1624/730 for 2,354.

Another v2 sells 1,877 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

Milky 2 v2 sells 1,460 BDs, DVDs do not rank. That's a 38% drop on v1 wk1 BD. Holy shit. I do believe this is looking to become one of the worst S1>S2 drops we've ever seen. It's just completely collapsed. Season 1 averaged 6,084 and if we didn't have that ~750 DVD estimate for v1, season 2 would be lucky to average 1/3rd of that.

Mouretsu v2 comes back after its 4/27 restock, adding 963 in wk3, for a total of 6,572, which means wk2 saw 266 stragglers go through the system as people found the low remaining stock here and there. Right now v2 is exactly 100 ahead of v1, with less weeks of ranking. Dare I hope v2 ranks again next week? Unlikely, but I'll hope anyway.


Fall update:
Shana III v5 sells 2507/1015 for 3,522. Down 8.1%, breaking its consistency streak a smidge.

Last Exile Fam v4 sells 2,571 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

Mashiro-iro v4 starts at 2018/760 for 2,778.

Maken-ki v5 starts at 1868/796 for 2,664.

C3 v5, final volume, sells 1,879 BDs, DVDs do not rank. Final average, 1,899.

Mirai Nikki v5 sells 1,653 BDs, DVDs do not rank.


Past seasons:
Nichijou v11 sells 1,747 BDs, DVDs do not rank. "Only" two more volumes before it (and its hapless buyers, like me) is finally put out of its misery, hooray! -_- Damned Kadokawa.

Suite Precure BD Box v3 sells 1,071. The DVDs are moving about 500-600 a volume so the BD boxes are actually doing about double that. I'm much more interested in seeing Smile's sales though, since it seems to be much more well received, both in TV ratings among its expected audience and among otaku.


OVAs, Movies, Boxsets etc:
none

[MelancholicMariya]

Originally Posted by something

Suite Precure BD Box v3 sells 1,071. The DVDs are moving about 500-600 a volume so the BD boxes are actually doing about double that. I'm much more interested in seeing Smile's sales though, since it seems to be much more well received, both in TV ratings among its expected audience and among otaku.

I'm also interested in how Smile will perform. From what I recall Suite is the first Precure to get the BD Box release treatment, I wish Heartcatch Precure got the BD-Box release because it and Smile are the only ones I'm interested in so far, and I'd buy that.

Maybe Toei will release Heartcatch later on? I doubt it'll happen, but I'll hold out some hope.

[something]

Due to some recent discussions we've been having, I was wondering about different ways to measure early on what shows are and aren't looking promising. One thing I've been messing with lately is seeing what percentage of their solicited time they've spent at given ranks. This ignores points, which are more susceptible to brief fluctuations early on, and maybe gives a bit more depth. Even so, it's still very very preliminary.

This would be measured using Stalker's hourly records of ranks for Vol. 1 BDs. I ignore DVDs because no series this season is DVD-heavy. And Tsuritama, Kimi to Boku 2 and Natsu-iro are not included because we have no data thanks to the Aniplex/Amazon issue.


Top 10
01) Haiyore! Nyaruko-san: 8% (47 hrs)

- Only Nyaruko has been able to break the Top 10, and it did it over 47 update periods/hours, which is pretty good this early on, considering what kind of releases have been at the top of the charts lately (Nise, Unicorn, Yamato, Mizuki Nana, AKB and other concert BDs, and now K-ON!).


Top 25
01) Haiyore! Nyaruko-san: 39% (229 hrs)
02) Eureka 7 AO: 8% (45 hrs)
03) Accel World: 7% (49 hrs)
04) Hyouka: 4% (21 hrs)

- Only these four have seen the Top 25 and Nyaruko was there much much longer than anything else. Eureka 7 and Accel World did it all during their first 3-4 days and haven't been that high since. Same deal for Hyouka, though in this case it's almost certainly due to KyoAni fans rather than the source material.


Top 50
01) Haiyore! Nyaruko-san: 59% (349 hrs)
02) Eureka 7 AO: 25% (134 hrs)
03) Accel World: 14% (90 hrs)
04) Hyouka: 13% (66 hrs)
05) Medaka Box: 2% (14 hrs)

- Here we see almost the exact same group with double-digit percent times in the Top 50, and Nyaruko's lead really starts to pull away from the rest. But there's also the surprise addition of Medaka Box, which spent half a day in the top 50 during its early early surge. But that was very short lived and misleading, as we'll see.


Top 100
01) Haiyore! Nyaruko-san: 100% (589 hrs)
02) Eureka 7 AO: 89% (474 hrs)
03) Hyouka: 43% (222 hrs)
04) Accel World: 31% (202 hrs)
05) Sakamichi no Apollon: 8% (16 hrs)
06) Medaka Box: 6% (34 hrs)
07) Saki Achiga-hen: 2% (13 hrs)
08) Jormungand: 0% (1 hr)

- Nyaruko here proves its dominance thus far. It has literally never left the top 100, assuming you chop off the first 3-12 hours after solicitation like I did, since titles have just been listed and haven't had time to be ordered. Eureka Seven AO has done almost as well.
- Hyouka has, in the long run, taken a lead over Accel World. Hyouka has been performing more strongly than anything except Nyaruko in the last week to week and a half.
- Minor, temporary appearances for Jormungand, Saki, Sakamichi and Medaka in the Top 100. You can start to see how Medaka's Top 50 was misleading... 51-100 only lasted an additional 20 hours.


Top 300
01) Haiyore! Nyaruko-san: 100% (589 hrs)
02) Eureka 7 AO: 100% (534 hrs)
03) Hyouka: 100% (515 hrs)
04) Accel World: 99% (653 hrs)
05) Jormungand: 98% (382 hrs)
06) Sakamichi no Apollon: 76% (146 hrs)
07) Saki Achiga-hen: 44% (369 hrs)
08) Queen's Blade Rebellion: 23% (291 hrs)
09) Sankarea: 16% (102 hrs)
10) Medaka Box: 13% (79 hrs)
11) Zetman: 12% (96 hrs)
12) Nazo no Kanojo X: 12% (45 hrs)
13) Kore was Zombie S2: 10% (279 hrs)
14) Tasogare Otome: 8% (65 hrs)
15) Kuroko no Basketball: 8% (36 hrs)
16) Saint Seiya Omega: 1% (3 hrs)

- Top 300 is where you want to be, consistently, if you want to sell decently. The higher the better of course. Our Top 5 have never or almost never left this tier and it's a good bet they'll do at least respectably if they hold the same for the next month.
- Jormungand is able to shine here, jumping from virtually never being in the Top 100 to virtually always being in the Top 300. That's the kind of thing that can make a sleeper hit.
- Saki and Sakamichi have put up strong showings here too, though Sakamichi is much more recently solicited than other shows, so it remains to be seen how it'll rank long term.
- Everything from Queen's Blade on down hasn't spent enough time in the Top 300 to impress yet, but there's a lot of time left (less so for KoreZom 2, which has been solicited for much longer than other shows).


Mostly Outside Top 500 - Slightly different approach, these are Top 500 for less than 30% of their run so far. Ranked worst to least worst.
01) Hiiro no Kakera: 0% (0 hrs)
02) Shining Bread: 0% (0 hrs)
03) Upotte!!: 0% (3 hrs)
04) Acchi Kocchi: 2% (15 hrs)
05) Sengoku Collection: 4% (17 hrs)
06) Kore wa Zombie S2: 12% (546 hrs)
07) Medaka Box: 19% (117 hrs)
08) Zetman: 25% (198 hrs)

- These are the titles you can consider are in big trouble without a drastic turn-around, although this applies least to Zombie, due to its length of time solicited.
- Hiiro, Happy Bread Show, Upotte, Acchi Kocchi, and SenColle are honestly kind of dead, short of a miracle. Acchi Kocchi being here makes me sad.
- SenColle has only in the last few days gone anywhere, and is actually the highest ranked DVD right now and even made some mediocre-but-not-utterly-awful inroads on BD. But it's just a twitch of rigor mortis, most likely.
- Medaka Box's collapse is best illustrated here. It peaked better than 50th, and yet has only kept within the Top 1000 for 19% of its time, total. Outside 1000 is the post-apocalyptic hellscape where nobody wants to be.


Mostly Outside Top 1000 - Same as above, these made the Top 1000 less than 30% of their solicited time.
01) Shining Bread: 0% (1 hrs)
02) Hiiro no Kakera: 2% (30 hrs)
03) Sengoku Collection: 6% (28 hrs)
04) Upotte: 13% (174 hrs)

- The worst of the worst in sales potential. SenColle is actually probably the worst overall, but the Bread anime has spent a mere 60 minutes in the top 1000, ever, over the course of 1212 hours.
- Despite its poor Top 500 showing, Acchi Kocchi is nowhere near this list, being within the top 1000 72% of the time. Still not exactly promising, though.
- Hiiro obviously hasn't caught otome gamers' attention like UtaPri or Hakuouki did. Fujoshi support their infrequent adaptations a high percentage of the time, but the stereotype that they'll buy anything aimed at them obviously isn't true.


5 Digits - Titles that have actually slipped outside the Top 10,000 at least once, worst first by time spent outside.
01) Sengoku Collection: 60%
02) Upotte!!: 13%
03) Hiiro no Kakera: 10%
04) Medaka Box: 3%
05) Kore wa Zombie S2: <1%
06) Shining Bread: <1%

- Yeah, that's what I meant about SenColle.
- More than negligible amounts for Upotte and Hiiro as well.
- Negligible amounts for KoreZom and Bread, and a smidge for Medaka.
- Remember this is with the first 12 hours or so removed so titles that ranked very low in their first few hours before buyers found the listings are not included.

So if I had to rank performance thus far?
- 1st tier is obviously Nyaruko.
- 2nd tier is Eureka, Hyouka and Accel.
- 3rd tier is Jormungand.
- 4th tier is Sakamichi and Saki.

Sakamichi could be third, if it holds, while Saki could fall out into the mass below if it it doesn't pick up a bit. After that it's a crap shoot trying to predict anything, and any of this can change wildly at a moment's (or rather a great or terrible episode's) notice.

[BigOnAnime]

@Shana III talk. Personally, that first half was awful for me, and the second half even worse. You can tell my frustration a bit from this not so good review I made on MAL.
http://myanimelist.net/profile/BigOnAnime/reviews
The only redeemable thing really for me was the decent ending we got, even if it was rushed.

@sales, Nichijou continues to fall from 4,000 on V1, to 1,700 on V11, nice...

I blame mainly Kadokawa's 13 two episode single bullshit. The standard for shows that long is 9 three episode singles really.

I wonder when they'll learn to stop testing the patience of the rapid otaku.

[Megiddo]

Some pretty interesting stats I must admit. It's really surprising how Medaka started relatively strong and then just nosedived past the 1000s.

Personally, I've been keeping track of shows by their average rank.

Nyarlko - 39
Eureka Ao - 75
Hyouka - 109
Accel World - 127
Jorumgand - 175
Sakamichi no Apollon - 227
Saki Achiga-hen - 319
Queens Blade - 432
Mysterious Girlfriend X - 485
Sankarea - 527
Tasogare Otome X Amnesia - 569
Acchi Kocchi - 854

And then the rest are past 1000. Though this method of tracking is unfair to Zombie 2 since it was solicited way before it started airing so its average is definitely skewed.

Then I'll take those averages and compare them to some recently released show like Amagami SS+ which in this case had around 4200 points by the time the database stopped keeping track of it. In order to reach the 4200 points, it had an average ranking of 209.

So using Amagami as a baseline I can see which shows are on the right track at least. Though as you can see by the graph, Amagami had a much better first half than second, so the averages for the spring shows are likely to go down as time goes on (until right before it's released at least).

[Hououin91]

How much did eureka seven average in sales?