Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[meruruchan]

Originally Posted by Chipp12

And another update for EVA 3.0 -
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news...kets-in-9-days

Evangelion: 3.0 You Can (Not) Redo (Evangelion Shin Gekijō-ban Q) has sold 2,032,147 tickets in the nine days since the film opened on November 17. The film has now earned 2,858,126,200 yen[...]

LOL, almost 3bn in NINE DAYS.

Evangelion is always another level.

[something]

http://uni.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/ani...802208/261-262
http://www3.atchs.jp/test/read.cgi/u.../1358040837/22

Full list. 760 DVD threshold, 1061 BD.


2012 11/19~11/25 DVD List
*1 (**4) --- 9,232 *,**9,232 **1 Kuroko no Basuke v5
*2 (**5) --- 8,146 *,**8,146 **1 Uchuu Senkan Yamato 2199 v3
*3 (**6) --- 7,918 *,**7,918 **1 Meitantei Conan Movie 11-ninme no Striker LE
*4 (**8) --- 5,859 *,**5,859 **1 Sword Art Online v2
*5 (*11) --- 4,636 *,**4,636 **1 Meitantei Conan Movie 11-ninme no Striker RE
*7 (*24) --- 2,822 *,**2,822 **1 Saint Seiya DVD Box v1
13 (*39) --- 2,053 *,**2,053 **1 Crayon Shin-chan Movie 20: Arashi wo Yobu! Ora to Uchuu no Princess
15 (*44) --- 1,785 *,**1,785 **1 BLEACH Shinigami Daikou Shoushitsu-hen v4
16 (*47) --- 1,704 *,**1,704 **1 Dog Days' v3
18 (*59) --- 1,275 *,**1,275 **1 Yuru Yuri♪♪ v3
19 (*63) --- 1,243 *,**1,243 **1 Tsuritama v6
20 (*65) --- 1,237 *,**1,237 **1 Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun v1
22 (*67) --- 1,196 *,**1,196 **1 Guilty Crown v11
25 (*78) --- 1,012 *,**1,012 **1 Niji-iro Hotaru: Eien no Natsuyasumi
26 (*82) --- *,966 *,***,966 **1 Hiiro no Kakera v6
28 (*87) *67 *,864 1,166,522 570 Tonari no Totoro
30 (105) --- *,760 *,***,760 **1 Chouyaku Hyakunin Isshu Utakoi. v3
-- (108) *,750
-- (118) Poyopoyo Kansatsu Nikki v3
-- (123) Jinrui wa Suitaishimashita v3
-- (128) Kimi to Boku. v6
-- (131) Nintama Rantarou 19th Series v7
-- (156) Natsu-iro Kiseki v5
-- (163) Cardfight!! Vanguard Asia Circuit-hen v4
-- (175) Nazo no Kanojo X v6
-- (178) Kidou Senshi Gundam AGE v10
-- (213) Ginga e Kickoff!! v5
-- (218) To Love-Ru DVD Box v1
-- (276) Saint Seiya v4
-- (227) Saki Achiga-hen episode of side-A v6
-- (228) Koi to Senkyo to Chocolate v3
-- (229) To Love-Ru DVD Box v2
-- (230) Eureka Seven AO v6
-- (232) Natsuyuki Rendezvous v2
-- (279) Gukkoku! Touei Manga Matsuri Summer 1984
-- (280) Shining Hearts ~Shiawase no Pan~ v5
-- (294) Metantei Conan Soccer Selection

-- (*38) --- 2,060 *,**2,060 **1 Tiger & Bunny The Live


2012 11/19~11/25 BD List
*1 (*1) -- 24,786 *24,786 *1 Sword Art Online v2
*2 (*2) -- 19,851 *19,851 *1 Uchuu Senkan Yamato 2199 v3
*3 (*3) -- 18,082 *18,082 *1 Kyoukai Senjou no Horizon II v3
*6 (*6) -- *8,302 **8,302 *1 Kuroko no Basuke v5
*9 (*9) -- *5,923 **5,923 *1 Yuru Yuri♪♪ v3
12 (12) -- *4,950 **4,950 *1 Dog Days' v3
13 (13) -- *4,809 **4,809 *1 Future GPX Cyber Formula OVA BD Box
14 (14) -- *4,619 **4,619 *1 Meitantei Conan Movie 11-ninme no Striker LE
15 (15) -- *4,499 **4,499 *1 Saki Achiga-hen episode of side-A v6
17 (17) -- *4,106 **4,106 *1 Guilty Crown v11
18 (18) -- *4,016 **4,016 *1 Jinrui wa Suitaishimashita v3
20 (20) -- *3,160 **3,160 *1 GA Geijutsuka Art Design Class BD Box
-- (21) -- *3,118 **3,118 *1 Eureka Seven AO v6
-- (25) -- *2,477 **2,477 *1 Cardcaptor Sakura BD Box v2
-- (27) -- *2,274 **2,274 *1 Nazo no Kanojo X v6
-- (30) -- *2,053 **2,053 *1 Kokoro Connect v2
-- (31) -- *2,031 **2,031 *1 Soukyuu no Fafner BD Box
-- (33) -- *1,873 **1,873 *1 Rinne no Lagrange season 2 v3
-- (35) -- *1,652 **1,652 *1 Natsu-iro no Kiseki v5
-- (36) -- *1,646 **1,646 *1 Tsuritama v6
-- (37) -- *1,607 **1,607 *1 To LOVE-ru BD Box
-- (40) -- *1,427 **1,427 *1 Kidou Senshi Gundam AGE v10
-- (41) 15 *1,401 172,319 91 Evangelion Shin Gekijouban: Jo (Evangelion 1.11)
-- (43) -- *1,257 **1,257 *1 Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun v1
-- (44) -- *1,246 **1,246 *1 Koi to Senkyo to Chocolate v3
-- (45) -- *1,213 **1,213 *1 Dakara Boku wa, H ga Dekinai v3
-- (48) 20 *1,157 457,674 46 Evangelion Shin Gekijouban: Ha Evangelion 2.22)
-- (50) -- *1,061 **1,061 *1 Binbougami ga! v3

11 (11) -- *5,046 **5,046 *1 Tiger & Bunny The Live
-- (--) *7 **,451 **2,670 *2 Chihara Minori Live 2012 ULTRA -Formation Live Blu-ray
-- (--) *6 **,450 **2,679 *2 Chihara Minori Live 2012 PARTY -Formation Live Blu-ray


Pretty cool how DD' and YRYR♪♪ are sticking so close to their first seasons. Horizon II too, to (...2?) a lesser extent.
And a busy full week list, including over 1k for the Eva movies.


Fall update:
Kaibutsu-kun v1 sells 1,257/1,237, total 2,494. Not good for a discounted first volume, but better than Stalker predicted at least.

Btooom! did not rank in either format.


Summer update:
Sword Art Online v2 sells 24786/5859, total 30,645. Down 10.3% from v1wk1.

Horizon II v3 sells 18,082. Slightly more than v2wk1 and only a couple hundred behind s1v2wk1.

Yuru Yuri♪♪ v3 sells 1275/5923, total 7,198. Wow, not bad, and it's back ahead of Dog Days'. On track to easily pass s1v3 next week. We shouldn't need to wait for a monthly list this time because its wk2 isn't in this huge release week.

Dog Days' v3 sells 4950/1704, total 6,654. Ever so slightly more drop than I expected, but still only about 150 behind s1v3wk1. s1v3 did 7,565 after two weeks so this volume might end up a couple hundred behind at most. Still on track to match s1 as long as it doesn't drop more after this.

Jintai v3 sells 4,016 BDs, DVDs do not rank. A shame, becausethey probably missed by less than 50 units. I guess this is the end of this show doing 5k, then. Can't get there without DVD data. This is a case where it would have been much better served coming out last week, even if we would have had to wait for the monthly list for wk2 data.

Kokoroko v2 sells 2,053 BDs, DVDs do not rank. Already down 20% from v1.

LagRin S2 v3 sells 1,873 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

KoiChoco v3 sells 1,246 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

Dakara Boku wa H v3 sells 1,213 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

Binbougami v3 sells 1,061 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

Utakoi v3 sells 760 DVDs, BDs do not rank.


Past seasons:
KuroBas v5 sells 8302/9232, total 17,534. Down from the 20k+ wk1 of v4, but still higher than v1-3 wk1.

Guilty Crown v11, final volume, sells 4106/1196, total 5,302. Final average: 7,594. (Closest Vol: v5)

Saki Achiga v6 sells 4,499 BDs. Slight bump up, better than v3-5 wk1. I am planning on counting this as a 9 volume series for the remaining episodes, since they air on TV (if only AT-X) and directly continue the story, so I consider them bonus episodes rather than totally separate OVAs. Similar to webcasts like Bake or OreImo. But at present, average is 5,611.

Tsuritama v6, final volume, sells 1646/1243, total 2,889. Final average: 3,510.

Eureka AO v6 sells 3,118 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

Nazo no Kanojo v6, final volume, sells 2,274 BDs, DVDs do not rank. Final average: 3,048.

NatsuKise v5 sells 1,652 BDs, DVDs do not rank.

Gundam AGE v10 sells 1,427 BDs.

Hiiro no Kakera v6 sells 966 DVDs, BDs do not rank.



OVAs, Movies, Boxsets etc:
GA Art Design Class BD Box sells 3,160. Hey, quite respectable for a show that only averaged 4.6k to begin with.

Cardcaptor Sakura BD Box v2 sells 2,477.

Fafner BD Box sells 2,031.

To LOVE-Ru BD Box sells 1,607.


Next week, Shinsekai Yori and Ebiten.


Link to TV anime top-sellers list
Link to Vol. 1 Sales by Season

[Hououin91]

Kaibutsu-kun and Btooom! are not summer shows, or are you doing it on purpose?

[something]

Originally Posted by Hououin91

Kaibutsu-kun and Btooom! are not summer shows, or are you doing it on purpose?

Oh, no, just forgot to add a Fall section. Thanks for pointing that out, need to fix that and the previous two weeks for K as well.

[MelancholicMariya]

Well, now that Guilty Crown as finished its run I don't think it dropped as much as Ao no Exorcist did, which was how I thought it'd behave, but still it dropped quite a bit. I remember vol. 1 of Guilty Crown being something like 10/11k and now it's down to 5k.

I feel like if Aniplex let Guilty Crown be something like 8 volumes long aside from 11 volumes Guilty Crown would've been some kind of success.

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by MelancholicMariya

Well, now that Guilty Crown as finished its run I don't think it dropped as much as Ao no Exorcist did, which was how I thought it'd behave, but still it dropped quite a bit. I remember vol. 1 of Guilty Crown being something like 10/11k and now it's down to 5k.

I feel like if Aniplex let Guilty Crown be something like 8 volumes long aside from 11 volumes Guilty Crown would've been some kind of success.

It was still successful and probably made more money than it would have with only 8.

[something]

【2012年 11月 27日 21時(火)】 ***,**9位
【2012年 11月 27日 22時(火)】 ***,**7位
【2012年 11月 27日 23時(火)】 ***,**7位
【2012年 11月 28日 00時(水)】 ***,**7位
【2012年 11月 28日 01時(水)】 ***,**6位
【2012年 11月 28日 02時(水)】 ***,**6位

**6位/**6位 ★ (**8,611 pt) ガールズ&パンツァー (初回限定生産) 1 [Blu-ray]
*19位/*19位 ★ (**4,696 pt) ガールズ & パンツァー 2 (初回限定版) [Blu-ray]
*21位/*21位 ★ (**4,195 pt) ガールズ&パンツァー 3 (初回限定版) [Blu-ray]
*23位/*23位 ★ (**3,948 pt) ガールズ&パンツァー (初回限定生産) 4 [Blu-ray]
*24位/*24位 ★ (**3,766 pt) ガールズ&パンツァー (初回限定生産) 5 [Blu-ray]
*25位/*25位 ★ (**3,707 pt) ガールズ&パンツァー (初回限定生産) 6 [Blu-ray]

Every volume in the top 25. Neither UC nor Tiger & Bunny nor Steins Gate BD box nor SAO can stand up to the GirlPan blitzkrieg lately! All that can stop it now is a Tari Tari-level estimation failure... because if Stalker is accurate it's still on track for about 15k and there's little reason to believe later volumes will drop off given how they're charting.

Oh, and Vol. 1 BD now has more points than any other release, including Gintama, and including DVD+BD totals for Darkness and Chuu2. There really is a chance GirlPan is the season winner at this rate.

(PS: It annoys me more than it should that some of the volume numbers are before the 初回限定版 and some are after and v2 has spaces around the &. >_> Standardize you damn item names, distributors. This stuff happens all the time.)

Chuunibyou however has seen all its subsequent volumes out of the top 100 ever since episode 7, and v1 has been stuck around 48-60 since then. I was really hoping it would recover and get back to its all-volume high rankings by now. Just going to have to cross my fingers that the artbox design reveal means heavy storefront purchases, and not just people who already bought it on Amazon canceling and shifting their orders, with no significant net gain in sales.

The natural pessimist in me is reawakening though! Stalker's estimate is down to 8.2k BDs now with only a month to go, when it starts being more reliable. But I set me initial Chuu2 expectations around Hyouka level, which is about where I'd put lower end estimates for Chuu2 now. Significant storefront bias and DVD ranking could put it over 12k, but I'd rather not get my hopes up.

Those two are still spanking everything else from Fall, as they've been doing all month. Jojo was ahead of Chuu2 for a couple hours at most, but has more generally been 10-50 places behind. Darkness has been averaging something like 120th the past month, and LB! more like 140th.

[something]

Originally Posted by MelancholicMariya

Well, now that Guilty Crown as finished its run I don't think it dropped as much as Ao no Exorcist did, which was how I thought it'd behave, but still it dropped quite a bit. I remember vol. 1 of Guilty Crown being something like 10/11k and now it's down to 5k.
I feel like if Aniplex let Guilty Crown be something like 8 volumes long aside from 11 volumes Guilty Crown would've been some kind of success.

Vol. 11 BD will probably get a small second week, but here's the numbers so far:

Key: Vol#: Sales - Drop from previous vol - Drop from vol1
Vol. 01: 12,137
Vol. 02: *9,300 -23.37% -23.37%
Vol. 03: *8,728 -*6.15% -28.09%
Vol. 04: *7,758 -11.11% -36.08%
Vol. 05: *7,543 -*2.77% -37.85%
Vol. 06: *7,240 -*4.02% -40.35%
Vol. 07: *6,599 -*8.85% -45.63%
Vol. 08: *6,438 -*2.44% -46.96%
Vol. 09: *6,334 -*1.62% -47.81%
Vol. 10: *6,160 -*2.75% -49.25%
Vol. 11: *5,302 -13.93% -56.32% (1 week)
Average: 7,594

If v11 gets ~550 BDs next week, the final drop from v1 is 51-52%

AoEx did drop more, 62-63% off v1 for the last two volumes.

As for total sales in yen, GC took in ¥577,170,000 on 77.99% BD, 22.01% DVD. Three realistic ways to get to that number are:

- 11 vol. release at ¥7140/¥6090 needs to sell 5923/1671, total 7,594
average (the actual release).

- 8 vol. release at ¥8190/¥7140 needs to sell 6870/2224, total 9,094 average.

- 8 vol. release at ¥7140/¥6090 needs to sell 7880/2607, total 10,487 average.

The second one seems more plausible than the third. The question, then, is whether they could have scored more than 9.1k at those MSRPs.

It's always a balancing act. Hyouka for example has pulled in ¥353,250,000 on 9,787 average (87.51% BD) after 10 episodes. That's the equivalent of a 13k+ seller at normal two-cour prices. Would it have sold that much if it were cheaper? Maybe. Maybe not.

[Yvese]

Hoping that Chuunibyou is being underestimated.

I honestly expect it to do better than Hyouka. I mean, I loved Hyouka, but Chuunibyou just seems like the kind of show that would sell more. I hope a good chunk of sales are at stores rather than amazon.

[something]

Originally Posted by Yvese

Hoping that Chuunibyou is being underestimated.
I honestly expect it to do better than Hyouka. I mean, I loved Hyouka, but Chuunibyou just seems like the kind of show that would sell more. I hope a good chunk of sales are at stores rather than amazon.

Even given my pessimism, the Amazon statistics are firmly implying it'll do better, yes. What's nice about these two shows is that they can be compared very fairly, as far as Amazon goes, since they were both solicited around the time of the first episode, both were solicited all at once, both are adaptations of obscure (for otaku) novels by the same studio, and both are on sale for almost exactly the same number of days.

At equivalent points - 1309 hrs on DVD, 1319 hrs on BD, 56 days of accumulated points:

Hyouka v1 BD:
- 5,152 pts
- #78 avg ranking
- 77% of updates in top 100
- 22% of updates in top 50
- 6% of updates in top 25

Chuuni v1 BD:
- 6,313 pts (+18.4%)
- #46 avg ranking (+32)
- 99% of updates in top 100 (+22)
- 66% of updates in top 50 (+44)
- 14% of updates in top 25 (+8)

Hyouka v1 DVD:
- 721 pts
- #2419 avg ranking
- 10% of updates in top 1000
- 0% of updates in top 500

Chuuni v1 DVD:
- 969 pts (+25.6%)
- #1609 avg ranking (+814)
- 40% of updates in top 1000 (+30)
- 1% of updates in top 500 (+1)

Obviously better numbers all around, though not as huge a difference as it might seem. The DVD numbers are especially misleading, as we're likely talking a difference of a couple hundred discs.

The real wild card is whether stalker is over or under-estimating. Hyouka first week sales were consistently overestimated 20-30% by Stalker every volume in both formats. So if Chuuni has the point/estimate lead it does and is being underestimated, then it could sell quite a lot more than Hyouka. If it's also being overestimated, the difference may not be much greater than what we're seeing.

One thing worth noting is that Stalker stopped, as far as I can tell, adding points after release date. Titles used to get points for up to 7 days after release date, which could add upwards of a few thousand for a hot title. This could suppress Chuuni's point total vis a vis Hyouka, and help keep Chuuni from being overestimated as much (if at all).

And the last thing worth noting is that Hyouka gets a comparatively high percentage of its reported sales after the first week, compared to shows with similar average sales:
19% - Hyouka
14% - InuBoku
12% - Haganai
12% - Working'!!
10% - Accel World
*9% - Natsume Shi
*9% - Natsume San
*9% - Yuru Yuri (s1)
*8% - High School DxD
*5% - Azazel-san

Hyouka usually comes out in busy weeks like most of these, so I don't think I can attribute it to luck of the release date draw either.

So we should see what kind of sales Chuuni gets after the first week... might not know how they really compare until 1-2 weeks after. If it jumps into 10k wk1, adds 500 BDs the next, then drops off the charts, it won't be all that much ahead.