Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[symbv]

Originally Posted by Damius

Does it works the same for movies and tv series? I mean do they have to buy broadcast time? Does it cost around the same? I mean for let's say each minute for a TV series and each minute of a movie if both of them were airing at the same time?

I think we have to note two things:

First, K-On is unique in that the TV network TBS invested a lot in the franchise (production, merchandise etc) so it is always easy to see that it will give a favorable deal for any broadcast of K-On.

Second, airing a movie is a bit different from airing a midnight anime series. It is not common (in fact, rare) to see an anime movie being aired in a midnight time slot. So in order for an anime movie to air on TV, the TV network must be sure that it can attract enough sponsors to put up commercials in it. This is why anime movies aired on Japan TV are always the popular stuff, like Ghibli works, One Piece, Crayon Shin-chan, Doraemon, Evangelion, Summer Wars etc. (though once in a while it may broadcast some less popular works but they are usually the arthouse stuff and are treated as such in its marketing by the TV channel) In K-On's case, it may not have the same popularity as Ghibli or Evangelion or Doraemon, which is why it is not placed in a timeslot like 9pm, but it is still a festival time slot and unlike midnight anime TV series, the broadcast of the movie attracted quite a number of sponsors not from anime/manga/game/figure/merchandise areas, so it can be said that, like the broadcast of other anime movies, it was mainly supported by advertiser sponsoring.

By the way, it has to be noted that this broadcast reached only half of the country. In particular people in Kansai area (Osaka, Kyoto etc) were not able to see the movie on TV.

[symbv]

Originally Posted by Nico87

I'm in Norway and they always ship items as soon as they're in stock, whereas the guy I buy anime through (who lives in Japan) always receive whole orders.

I don't know about how Amazon JP ships orders overseas, but my years of buying from Amazon JP in Japan is that partial shipping is the norm, and it has been always like this since the beginning. From my many hundreds of purchase through Amazon JP I would say I got partial shipping more often than whole. If the size of the order is not big, it may be more likely that they ship the order whole but in the shopping option on the website the default is always to permit partial shipping, unless you specifically pick the option that allows shipping only when the full order is available.

[Chipp12]

Originally Posted by something

The 2ch sales thread has started making note of their sales expectations again, this time for Winter '13.

43 respondents so far, but not everyone guessed for every show.

So do these numbers bear any significance?
There are only 3 closest guesses for this season so far:
10,703/10,197 Gintama' Enchousen
3,291/2,494 Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun
1,100/1,759 Ixion Saga DT

So I'm not sure that these will be very close to the right ones too...

[symbv]

Just some quick comments about this week's sales figure before I go:

I kept watch of the 2ch Sales Thread closely before the Oricon sales data went out yesterday. The final estimates of GirlPan by fans there were generally quite close: Most looked at a number between 12k to 14k. And it also matches with the estimation that GirlPan is a title that leans heavily towards Amazon sales channel (which would warrant a discount factor of around 0.75 and 0.75 x 18206 = 13654 which is close to the actual figure 13550). There were a few who predicted 10k but they all factored too much of the serious lack of stock into their prediction.

On the other hand, it was the sales of Chunibyo that came as the biggest surprise for the Sales Thread as most of the predictions just before the data came out had GirlPan beating Chunibyo by 1k or so (so most estimates varied from 11k to 13k) but it turned out it was Chunibyo beating GirlPan by just a little below 1k. It is clear that most people (including myself) underestimated the extent of the undershooting of the Amazon Stalker points. Chunibyo turned out to have a heavily storefront sales model and the sales figure is at the high end of the range of estimation by fans in 2ch (10k-15k). While there has never been any doubt that Chunibyo will sell more than Hyouka and it will go above 10k, the >14k number is very good. Now the question is whether the number can sustain for the later, more serious, part of the series.

It is also good to see ToLoveRu Darkness to go over 10k in its first week. 2ch predictions were divided whether that would indeed happen but most seemed to bet on a figure of around 9k. It remains to be seen if the number will increase further in the coming weeks but it is certain now his series is even more popular than the first 2 seasons, something that is rare for TV anime series.

And the other estimates by 2ch turned out to be on the spot: 16k for Horizon, 8k(BD)+9k(DVD) for KuroBas.

Currently 2ch is filled with schadenfreude mocking at GirlPan failing to beat Chunibyo though I have a feeling that they mainly came from people who are just spectators who wanted to make noises and not real GirlPan haters or Chunibyo fans. The main question is how many the additional prints of GirlPan BD there are and how soon it will be shipped and counted towards Oricon sales figure. Amazon JP now says that the orders will only be sent in Feb instead of Jan, and for a few days in the past week it was not even possible to order Vol.1 in Amazon. We do know the first 10 episodes will be screened again before the last 2 episodes are broadcast, so we may even see one more boost in March for the BD. All these mean that while Chunibyo is this season's No.1 when we enter 2013, chances are still GirlPan will be the topseller for the Fall season when all dusts settle.

So far this season is not going too bad. We may not have super big sellers like SAO (reaching 40k) or Horizon (reaching 20k) like the Summer season, we still have 4 titles that go above the "big hit" 10k line and titles like Little Busters or Magi might just go above that line too. That said, it is a bit regrettable to see so many titles not having any sales figures (which is the common definition for "doing terrible"): Btooom, Shinsekai Yori and probably Code:Breaker, Hayate, and Initial D 5th stage too (I am hopeful about Jormungand 2nd season), and next week's Sukitte ii nayo and Zetsuen no Tempest may also suffer the same fate, as is Robotics;Notes, Hiiro no Kekara 2 and Medaka Box 2 in next month.

[symbv]

Originally Posted by Chipp12

So do these numbers bear any significance?
I'm not sure that these will be very close to the right ones too...

It is good to learn what active anime fans in Japan, who are the target and consumers of the midnight anime series and who do not any language or cultural barrier to what the anime is trying to sell or appeal (unlike foreign fans like us) and some may even have good understanding of the history of how well different anime titles in the past sold and the track record of the staff involved in the production of the current batch of anime, think of the prospect of the anime series that are going to be aired with just the information they have seen so far like PVs, key visuals, character designs, synopsis, staff list and the seiyuu cast etc. It may stray far from the actual performance, even the expectations when the anime begins airing, as fans will start to adjust the expectation once they see the actual anime with all the music, actions, talking and story development, but it is always a good starting point to study the sales prospect of anime titles that are about to reach the public.

[something]

Originally Posted by Chipp12

So do these numbers bear any significance?

Nope! They're (basically) pure guesses. But guesses tell us something about expectations, and expectations inform a lot about how people subsequently discuss shows. If Vividred is totally bombing from Day 1, we can expect a lot of surprise. If Senyuu. is bombing, nobody will bat an eye (except to make fun of Yamakan, anyway).

[Chipp12]

symbv
something
Well, maybe you're right, but speaking about "active anime fans in Japan" there are other Japanese rankings too like this
http://www.sankakucomplex.com/2012/1...-january-2013/
which have much more people who voted ^^;

But I guess there won't be any close numbers/expectations until we see the first episodes of the new shows which will show how good or bad performance in terms of production will be. (sorry for my engrish-y way of speaking)

[YoshiYoshi]

Originally Posted by Chipp12

symbv
something
Well, maybe you're right, but speaking about "active anime fans in Japan" there are other Japanese rankings too like this
http://www.sankakucomplex.com/2012/1...-january-2013/
which have much more people who voted ^^;

But I guess there won't be any close numbers/expectations until we see the first episodes of the new shows which will show how good or bad performance in terms of production will be. (sorry for my engrish-y way of speaking)

I say this everywhere I encounter these but never, ever take a Biglobe poll seriously. Ever. Their polls should always be taken with a huge grain of salt and purely for amusement and not serious discussion.

[something]

Originally Posted by Chipp12

symbv
something
Well, maybe you're right, but speaking about "active anime fans in Japan" there are other Japanese rankings too like this
http://www.sankakucomplex.com/2012/1...-january-2013/
which have much more people who voted ^^;

That's a list of what people say they want to watch. The sales guesses are how much people (who post in the 2ch sales thread and thus probably follow sales data quite closely) think shows will sell, regardless of what the individual guessing likes (though it may cause slight bias). They're trying to do two different things, and asking different people.

I mean, Chihayafuru 2 being first would already completely invalidate the poll as an accurate predictor of success, if that's what it were trying to be. I love the show but it's going to sell terribly just like season one.

[hpulley4]

Originally Posted by symbv

It is good to learn what active anime fans in Japan, who are the target and consumers of the midnight anime series and who do not any language or cultural barrier to what the anime is trying to sell or appeal (unlike foreign fans like us) and some may even have good understanding of the history of how well different anime titles in the past sold and the track record of the staff involved in the production of the current batch of anime, think of the prospect of the anime series that are going to be aired with just the information they have seen so far like PVs, key visuals, character designs, synopsis, staff list and the seiyuu cast etc. It may stray far from the actual performance, even the expectations when the anime begins airing, as fans will start to adjust the expectation once they see the actual anime with all the music, actions, talking and story development, but it is always a good starting point to study the sales prospect of anime titles that are about to reach the public.

I am amazed how little promotion they do for these shows. A web page, a few PVs... If not for fan discussion sites, would anyone know about them at all? If you haven't read the original material you have almost no idea which is why I don't have much of an idea if I will buy anything from the winter season. Vividred and Tamako Market are original so we have nothing but studio and PVs for them, but they are already supposed to be the top sellers. Clairvoyance...