Anime Sales in Japan - 2013 (Released volumes)

[hpulley4]

Originally Posted by Westlo

It's what she deserves for not knowing Jojos!

The Jojo's references were quite funny, having Jojo's Bizarre Adventure be a good source of information for rock music was great. It has its moments, that is for sure. Not enough to make me buy yet... But there is still time for the show to turn me.

Not many for sure pickups for me this season. Just two so far, Vividred and Kotoura-san and even there I am not 100% sure yet. I was thinking Mayou too initially but... It could still change my mind too.

Tamako Market is a no,.surprisingly.

[symbv]

Final entry of Oricon Daily Ranking before the Weekly Result is out tomorrow. GirlPan has disappeared, obviously because all the re-stock has been sent out by yesterday. K and Tari Tari are still going fairly strong, as is Initial-D DVD.

BD
*7 *8 *9 10 11 12 13　 週
** *9 *5 *9 *5 *8 *9 | -- | K 4
** *4 *6 11 *8 10 18 | -- | TARI TARI 5
** *6 *9 17 15 14 ** | -- | 信奈 Nobuna 5
** ** ** *4 *2 15 ** | -- | ガルパン GirlPan 1
** *8 13 ** 17 ** ** | -- | みなみけ Minami-ke BD-BOX
** 12 16 ** 20 ** ** | -- | イクシオンサーガDT IxionSagaDT 2
** 14 ** ** ** ** ** | -- | ミルキィホームズ Milky Holmes Alternative ONE & TWO
** 15 ** ** ** ** ** | -- | もやしもんリターンズ Moyashimon Returns 5
17 ** ** ** ** ** ** | -- | サイコパス Psycho-Pass 1
19 ** ** ** ** ** ** | -- | SAO 3

DVD
*7 *8 *9 10 11 12 13　 週
** ** ** *2 *3 *4 *5 | -- | 頭文字D Initial-D Fifth Stage 1
** ** ** ** ** 23 ** | -- | コクリコ坂から Kokuriko-saka Kara
** 19 *9 24 18 29 ** | -- | K 4
** 13 13 ** 20 ** ** | -- | イクシオンサーガDT IxionSagaDT 2
** 10 17 ** 29 ** ** | -- | ワンピース One Piece 15thシーズン 魚人島編 2
** 17 ** ** ** ** ** | -- | ナルト疾風伝 Naruto Shippuden 九尾掌握と因果なる邂逅の章 4
** 18 ** ** ** ** ** | -- | 秘密結社 鷹の爪 Taka no Tsume NEO 3
** 24 ** ** ** ** ** | -- | 信奈 Nobuna 5
** 26 ** ** ** ** ** | -- | もやしもんリターンズ Moyashimon Returns 5

[something]

All the 2ch sales thread seems to be able to talk about right now is Kotoura-san. Granted most of it is predicting it won't sell well, but at least it's got people talking. I guess with an opening episode like that, it would. Hasn't translated to much in the way of preorders though, since it peaked at 387 and is currently around 500. But even that might be a good deal better than most people expected (2ch predicted around 1k before the season started).

Maoyuu continues to dominate, which makes me very happy. It's starting to catch up to Love Live in raw points, and is the third Winter anime to hit 1k points.

Haganai Next is out of the top 100 already but considering it hit 10k first week (with DVDs) without being in the top 100 very much during season one, I doubt it matters. Should still be a lock for 10k again, especially since the modified art seems to be more well-received.

Tamakoma is hard to read right now. The good ranking performance after solicitation and ep 1 was surely due to fans who preorder every KyoAni show sight-unseen, though it's lagging (avg 135, median 119) there, behind Chuunibyou (avg 56, median 60) and Hyouka (avg 54, median 43) after the same 112 hours each.
Episode two or three will hopefully clarify whether it grasps broader appeal. Chuunibyou didn't leave the top 100 ever after episode two aired. Hyouka never did worse than 160 after episode two aired, and never left the top 100 after episode three aired. Assuming Tamakoma is being bought by similar people at similar times from similar stores in similar proportions (which is probably true), we should be able to get a decent read on expectations in the coming weeks. But you can never discount a sudden shift (in either direction) with later episodes.
It's just that I don't necessarily expect one, based on the very consistent performance of the two prior works. Sure Tamakoma is original, but I frankly don't think that will matter much at all.
In any event, no guesses from me yet, just some thoughts on what we might be able to glean from numbers in the coming weeks based on recent shows. Good news is that in the past few hours it's jumped from a low of ~220 to about 110 just based on the episode two preview going up. [Edit: oh and it seems to have aired on another station recently too]

Love Live almost dropped out of the top 100, but is back around 50-60 after episode two. It's dropped in most of the B&M rankings but that's primarily because Haganai is taking up a lot of spots and some stores only report a Top 10, which doesn't leave much room.

OreShura might be getting some momentum. It hasn't cracked the top 100 yet but it peaked at 138, which is a lot better than it was doing before.

Sasami-san didn't make much impact after episode one. It peaked at 210 and isn't even in the top 500 right now. I hope it picks up, since episode one was pretty amazing.

Still waiting on that Vivipan solicitation. Everyone will have the first episode under their belts when it hits Amazon, so if it's as anticipated as 2ch thinks, it should start quite high.

[symbv]

I have been checking Sales Thread but I do not think there is that much of talk about Kotoura-san. ViviPan, Tomakoma and Love Live are still talked more often (in fact GirlPan too) but mentions of Kotoura-san has indeed picked up, not least because some have posted links to sites like MAL or Youtube where overseas fans reviewed the anime (Japanese fans find this amusing). One thing that is clear is that among the 2ch threads dedicated to individual titles, Kotoura-san is ranked no.1 in terms of "momentum" (i.e. frequency of new comments) for this season's anime, though it is still behind GirlPan (!). The following is the 2ch Momentum Ranking data with the "momentum score":

FIVE DAYS AGO

1572　ViviPan
（1376　GirlPan）
434　Haganai
423　Tamakoma
375　MaoYuu
364　Love Live
260　Minamike
・
・
40　Kotoura-san

TODAY

（2763　GirlPan）
2058　Kotoura-san
1185　ViviPan
1040　MaoYuu
931　Love Live
880　Tamakoma
696　Sasami-san
443　D.C.III
317　Minamike
276　Kagura
231　OreShura
230　Mondaiji
217　Haganai

One thing that long-time sales watchers know is that 2ch momentum or even 2ch thread counts does not always convert to sales. Being the talk of the town is one thing, whether it can get people to buy the BD/DVD is quite another. And of course much also depends on how the show evolves over the series -- at the end the source material is very much entirely comedic, though quite often with a certain bittersweet flavor. How the adaptation works with the mood and handles the source material (will it come up with more original stuff like the serious drama in ep.1?) in later episodes and how well the audience like it after what they saw in ep.1 may be the main thing that decides whether the star will rise or fall for this show.

[something]

Originally Posted by symbv

I have been checking Sales Thread but I do not think there is that much of talk about Kotoura-san.

It was earlier today, for a few threads around 11238, when skimming through it was just loads of Kotoura-san talk and ASCII art. It's died off in the past few hours. (By "right now" I literally meant right then as I was posting, not that it's been going on for a solid week or anything.)

[hpulley4]

Kotoura - san is the first preorder of the winter season for me though I fully expect to have to destroy and recreate that April 3rd order before it ships as there isn't much in it right now but I like to order early.

Still can't quite bring myself to preorder Mayou or Oreshura. Second episodes were off putting for me.

Will preorder Vividred on Thursday.

[symbv]

I was browsing from 11228 to 11236 (as well as a couple of threads in each of the 3 previous days) and there was not that much Kotoura-san in them. So I guess the "momentum" in the Sales Thread was quite high at the hours of thread number 11238, probably because it was aired somewhere at the time of that particular thread. And as I checked thread no.11238 took place at around 11:30pm Monday in Japan and it was when Kotoura-san was aired in Tokyo, where the largest concentration of anime fans reside. Given what they have heard about the show earlier on when it was aired in Nagoya (where somehow it gets aired first) on Saturday, many people are keen on checking and commenting it. It is not really different from what happened when the first episode of ViviPan or Tamakoma was aired when many in 2ch checked the show because of the hype they heard. It is just that in Kotoura's case the hype came from broadcast outside Tokyo instead of trailers or staff list before the start of season.


As for prediction of sales, there is an increasing feeling in 2ch Sales Thread that the current season (2013 Winter) might, just might, be a "barren season" where few titles pass the "big hit mark" of 10k. Almost two weeks into the season, the ranking performance of all the titles is not looking that impressive so far. While no one is expecting a huge hit title selling >20k this season (not even ViviPan), but it is getting increasingly likely that perhaps we may even see some of the TOP FOUR bestselling of this season selling less than 10k for its vol.1 (Granted, MaoYuu's performance can be viewed as impressive, but it is still not viewed as a >10k selling title so far.)

As more and more shows get a Final Point Prediction from Amazon Stalker, the picture emerged does not look too good:

MaoYuu 8k+0.6k (BD+DVD)
Minamike4 4.4k+0.6k (BD+DVD)
Kagura 4k+1.2k (BD+DVD)
PuchiMasu 2k+0.6k (BD+DVD)
D.C.III 2k
OreShura 1.5k+1k (BD+DVD)
Amnesia 0.8k+1.2k (BD+DVD)
Hakkenden 1.2k+1k (BD+DVD)
Cuticle Tantei 0.4k+0.8k (BD+DVD)
Mondaiji 0.6k
GJ-bu 0.5k

Admittedly these prediction points may well shift as the season progresses, and some series may get sudden push with their later episodes. However, this also indicates that there is not that much enthusiasm for early preordering and the early episode(s) has failed to catch buyer's imagination thus far. The fact that so many titles showing such a mediocre prediction is a bit worrying.

Of the titles widely thought to be the TOP FOUR of the season, only Love Live has a prediction out yet in Amazon Stalker. At least for this one it is showing good prospect, with 10.4k as the prediction (and even that needs to be taken in perspective - predicted final points for vol.2 is just 4k). On the other hand, the performance of Tamakoma and Haganai2 does not look too encouraging. Some in 2ch Sales Thread now start to temper down the prediction for ViviPan as well. For that I guess what comes up for ep.2 may be a key factor in deciding how it ranks when it is solicited.

[Yvese]

It's still far too early to make any predictions.

Most shows this season havn't even aired the 2nd ep.

[symbv]

Originally Posted by Yvese

It's still far too early to make any predictions.
Most shows this season havn't even aired the 2nd ep.

Maybe, but don't forget I said that " However, this also indicates that there is not that much enthusiasm for early preordering and the early episode(s) has failed to catch buyer's imagination thus far." If we look at past seasons, there were titles that ranked higher at this early stage. Yet what we see now is that there is not much momentum so far for most titles (MaoYuu may be the only exception). The picture we see seems to indicate a season where sales boost has come to rely on much more on impact from later episodes than initial hype at the beginning of the season. Granted, Tamakoma and ViviPan are original so it may take time for momentum to build up, but still we are not seeing particularly impressive performance for titles with source material, and this is not encouraging.

[symbv]

I am sure Something will post the details soon, but the Weekly Result from Oricon has been just out.

Key findings:

- GirlPan is finally confirmed of its TOPSELLER "hegemon" position for 2012 Fall season by overtaking Chuunibyou with this week's result as the first wave of re-stock is finally delivered. Some are disappointed that the total does not pass 20k this week (partly because Sound Scan, an alternative sales pollster, earlier put the total to 21k this week) but it is clear that it will surpass 20k "Big Hit" mark once the subsequent wave of re-stock delivery happens at the end of this month. The discussion now shifts from whether it will break 20k (it will) to whether it can overthrow KuroBas in its sales.

- K is doing much better for its vol.4 compared to its previous volume, selling >1k more in the first week of release. Some attribute this to its bundle Drama CD being more popular but I am not 100% certain. Anyway, very impressive.

- Initial-D is doing much much better than Amazon Stalker's prediction. This shows a lot of purchases were done in storefronts. It is clearly one of the most unsung heroes for this season, breaking 6k. However, compared to the >30k sales for the 4th stage back in 2004, the franchise has lost a lot of its allure it seems. Nonetheless we can tell the remaining core fans are still sizable in number.

- KamiHaji is still moving up gradually in sales and now breaks 6k line. It is easily one of the best selling shoujo shows in recent time.

- The gap between better selling titles and bad selling titles is wide for this season. We don't even see one title that is between 3k-6k !!

BD
*1　TariTari　v5 7,101
*2　K　v4 3,905
*3　Nobuna v5　3,590
*4　Minamike BD Box　2,855
*5　GirlPan v1　2,358 18,713
*6　DT v2 1,332
*8　Milky Holmes Alternative　896
*9　SAO v3　881 28,442
10　Moyashimon2 v5　862
DVD
１　Initial-D5th v1　6,534
2 One Piece 2,164
３　DT v2　1,814
４　K　v4 1,712
６　Totoro　1,021 1,176,535
９　Nobuna v5 　791
１２　Moyashimon2 v5　716
２０　BROOK　514 21,085
２２　OHZ　508 21,145
２４　KamiHaji v1　462 4,335




2012 Fall Vol 1 Rankings
Key: Total - # Weeks Charted - Title - Format - Release Date
Updated as of 2013/01/15 list
18,713 *3 Girls und Panzer [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/21
16,782 *3 Chuunibyou Demo Koi ga Shitai! [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/19
12,409 *2 To LOVE-Ru Darkness [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/21
11,723 *2 Gintama' Enchousen [DVD]: 2012/12/19
11,036 *2 Little Busters! [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/26
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 10,000 Line - - - - - - - - - - - - -
*9,690 *2 Hidamari Sketch x Honeycomb [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/26
*7,659 *3 Psycho-Pass [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/21
*7,503 *4 K [DVD+BD]: 2012/11/07
*6,534 *1 Initial D 5th Stage [DVD+BD]: 2013/01/11
*6,249 *3 Kami-sama Hajimemashita [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/28
- - - - - - - - - - - Manabi Line (2,899) - - - - - - - - - - -
*2,497 *1 Onii-chan Dakedo Ai Sae Areba Kankenai yo ne [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/26
*2,494 *1 Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun [DVD+BD]: 2012/11/21
*2,392 *1 Jormungand Perfect Order [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/21
*2,184 *1 Busou Shinki [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/26
*1,759 *1 Ixion Saga DT [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/05
**,*** ** BTOOOM! [DVD+BD]: 2012/11/21
**,*** ** Shinsekai Yori [DVD+BD]: 2012/11/30 (vol.2 sold **,594)
**,*** ** Code:Breaker [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/21
**,*** ** Hayate no Gotoku! Can't Take My Eyes Off You [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/21
**,*** ** Sukitte Ii na yo [DVD+BD]: 2012/12/26