Anime Sales in Japan - 2013 (Released volumes)

[Draneor]

Originally Posted by something

I can't say I buy the argument. It's not significantly more or less mainstream-friendly to me than K-ON! (which we know gained acceptance well beyond 20-something male late-night anime viewership), or Hyouka for a more recent example. And to say "lack of sexual fanservice" and "KyoAni show" is to be rather redundant. Not to mention it is still very likely to sell better than the majority of other (much more otaku-centric) shows this season, so there are quite a few other variables in play obviously.

If anything, I think it may have taken a hit from being an anime original show with very little pre-airing marketing. The production team had, what, two months to market it?

[ultimatemegax]

With this week's novel sales data coming out from Oricon, Mondaiji-tachi got a pretty good boost in sales after the first anime episode. How does it compare to some earlier LN adaptations? Someone on 2ch compiled a list of sales after only the first episode aired of recent LN adaptations and I calculated the percent increase we can attribute to the first episode. This list is sorted in ascending sales post episode 1.

First week sales   Total sales after week 1    Title        Percent increase
*6292                   *23788                 Durarara!!       35.96250572
*7324                   *35222                 Mondaiji         26.25277798
*5430                   *49169                 Horizon          12.41454994
*9031                   *62167                 Nyaruko          16.99601024
11378                   *63609                 IS               21.78399801
*7402                   *74245                 Korezom          11.07371004
*6396                   *76362                 Gosick           *9.14158306
*8210                   *77604                 Hyouka           11.83099403
*6018                   *79153                 Papakoto         *8.22861831
17224                   *85794                 BakaTest         25.11885664
*6562                   *98192                 Aria             *7.16141002
*5205                   112234                 DenpaOnna        *4.86316793
*4962                   122571                 Accel World      *4.21906487
*7201                   172982                 OreImo           *4.34368233
*7957                   215363                 SAO              *3.83643675
*8067                   250086                 Haganai          *3.33320938

Durarara!! definitely takes the cake for increased sales (and rode it to over 100,000 for the first volume, but surprisingly Mondaiji-tachi is second, even besting the amazing increases for BakaTest and Hyouka. Given that it's a Kadokawa title, meaning high prices and likely to get a quick BD-Box release in the minds of fans, BD/DVD sales might not be high. This could be the way fans support the series. LN v8 will also come with an OVA this July so that'll also be interesting to track.

[ultimatemegax]

Originally Posted by Draneor

If anything, I think it may have taken a hit from being an anime original show with very little pre-airing marketing. The production team had, what, two months to market it?

They had 6 weeks from initial CM (which had a sketch of Tamako and the name) to airdate to market the show. Compared to the other big original series this season, which had ~7 months or so and a full page ad in a newspaper, it's very rushed in terms of marketing.

[symbv]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

I have been asked to point out to you that the Final Point Prediction on Stalker is calculated based on performance over the past week, not the entire life of the volume. So it will fluctuate rather wildly and is not considered a particularly useful measurement.

Oh, absolutely! I have been aware of it for years. I think you may have misunderstood the purpose of my analysis. The key point of my post is that the current Final Point Prediction data are useful because they give you a picture of how the sales performance is trending given the support it has received from consumers. It is precisely what you said, that it is based on its recent performance, that makes it useful, contrary to what you said that it is "not considered a particularly useful measurement". This is why Amazon Stalker keeps publishing Final Point Prediction over the solicitation period even though it comes close to reflect the actual sales only in the week or so before its release. Comparison of Final Point Prediction at various stages of a season, like what I did, provides insight as to the swings and momentum of popularity of the title. In fact if you want to talk about "wild fluctuation" this is even smoother than following the hourly position in Amazon Ranking. The idea is never one about predicting the actual final sales of the title, but shift in how well it is taken by BD/DVD buying anime fans.

By the way, I wonder who asked you to point that out? (as you said "I have been asked to point out to you")

[symbv]

Originally Posted by something

No, I doubt Tamako Market is intended to be mainstream. It seems very unlikely that its anything like Chihayafuru (targeted to a broad audience but stuck with a late night slot against its will), and late night anime viewers were intended as the audience from the start. I think what symbv is trying to say is that even given that, it's the sort of show that doesn't contain any "overly-otaku-ish" elements that would be likely to turn off a non-otaku viewer. There's no fanservice, there's no heavy otaku in-jokes, there's no violence, there's just a pretty straightforward, heartwarming story about life in a shopping district, with a bit of a fantastical twist. As he notes, this premise could probably be be passed off as a live action drama. So a more mainstream audience might enjoy it if they watched it, but it'd be more a bonus than the core expectation.

I think Something has given an explanation better than I could have written. @Yvese, as you suspected correctly, midnight anime is not considered mainstream. Its market may be sizable but even within anime industry (itself a niche, though big, market in Japan) it is dwarfed by family fares and other mainstream anime. As I said, I could entirely imagine Tamako Market to be filmed in live-action with real life actors and it could pass as a TV show aired in evening time slots watched by mainstream audience. I do not believe such thing is possible for SAO or K-On, and by this measure I won't call SAO or K-On a show for mainstream audience. For "show for mainstream audience" I mean it is so close to what the broad mainstream TV view audience, not just the anime viewing audience, expects from a show broadcast in golden hours like evening time slots: Mainstream refers to the broad population, most of them do not watch anime. Please notice this is a bit different from "a mainstream anime show" (which would include shows like One Piece or Crayon Shin-chan which may not render itself well as a live-action show for evening TV).

Where things get more speculative is in debating whether its middling sales performance (relative to expectations that it would be #2 of the season I mean, it's still unlikely to sell poorly in an objective sense) is a result of reducing "overly-otaku-ish" elements, thus turning off otaku who only care about fanservice and otaku humor and ::whatever::.
I can't say I buy the argument. It's not significantly more or less mainstream-friendly to me than K-ON! (which we know gained acceptance well beyond 20-something male late-night anime viewership),

The comparison with K-On is most telling, given both Tamakoma and it are made by mostly the same staff. In K-On there is eyebrow raising as to why there is almost no male character and adults are seldom seen (besides the one teacher). There is a strong whiff of idealization here. Of course it does not stop many people who are not hardcore anime fans from watching it and loving it (hence its huge popularity) but it would stand out quite oddly from the usual slice-of-life live-action comedy shows you see on Japan TV aired at the most popular time slots. The case for Tamakoma is very different: we have lots of male characters; we see hints of romantic love; we see many adults in the neighborhood interacting with each other; and family love as well as neighborhood spirit are given highlights. The moe-level is also given a bit of tempering - compared to Yui (or Mio or Azusa), the clumsiness of Tamako only comes up a little bit once in a while.

Actually I have a feeling that the staff had "mainstream" in mind when they created this show even though "mainstream" is not the main audience targeted (realistically they should not expect "mainstream audience" to be the main target as they know it will be broadcast in midnight time slot). KyoAni has strove to break out of its (fair or not) reputation for being the moe studio of choice. In every recent show it tried to strike a balance between the moe elements and something else: Drama in Chuunibyou; Coming of Age though detective mystery in Hyouka; Absurdist humor in Nichijou (I am sure NHK education TV did not pick Nichijou for airing because of its moe cuteness). And here I see an attempt to create a story and a setting that can come from just a show that is broadcast in golden hours but spices it with a competent display of a blend of great animation, cute characters and sincere storytelling that KyoAni has been so (rightly) famous for. To me it is something new that KyoAni is trying, and my point is that the usual midnight anime watching audience may not see that as something special, perhaps because those people just think the usual evening TV shows as boring anyway, even though I'd say the fact that KyoAni is trying this, and making an original anime show at that, is a laudable risk that they are taking. Unlike Chihayafuru, another anime I would say is fit for mainstream audience, which is an adaptation and seems to be fully prepared to see modest BD sales in return for boosting manga sales, Tamako Market is an original anime and I think it is a way for KyoAni to challenge the midnight anime watchers and show that it can produce an original work that caters not only for them but can also be enjoyed by their parents, their non-anime-watching friends and their little cousins without any need to adjust to the anime otaku culture (which is not really the case for K-On). Maybe it is not showing much success so far, but I hope history will prove this show's significance and worthiness among midnight anime.

[hpulley4]

Vividred Operation 3, loved it again! Don't know what people are complaining about with regards to the Vivid Green suit, the Wakaba character or Yuka's seiyuu performance. Vividred Operation Import locked in... My preorder is not going anywhere!

[something]

Just a general comment: this isn't the right thread for talking plot details (which I did a little of with Tamako too, yes). The discussion threads in General Anime are meant for that. It's mostly minor stuff so far but I wouldn't want anyone reading spoilers in a sales thread of all things.

But on another note: GTirlPan v1 ranked #3 in BDs two days in a row, lol. We'll be hitting 20k this week quite possibly.

[Hououin91]

Any reason for the sudden rise of all JOJO volumes?

[something]

Originally Posted by Hououin91

Any reason for the sudden rise of all JOJO volumes?

Maybe something big happened in a recent episode, but it could just be a late rush since the first volume comes out in less than 24 hours (Magi rose a lot as well, if not as high). The special extra figure also requires a purchase of all volumes, and can be done through Amazon unlike many other extras.

Jojo is looking pretty huge whatever the reason. It could easily match Chuunibyou's opening week if Stalker's numbers (~13.5k) are spot on, and will be higher if there's any degree of under-estimation going on.

Of course it could also be getting overestimated (it has been accumulating points for a month longer than most of the December releases after all) but I don't think the effect will be too big if so, because it's been a frequent presence in a number of the B&M rankings as well.

Should be a clear lock to average 10k.

[RyanSaotome]

The last episode was just a training episode in JoJo, nothing special. So I wouldn't attribute it to that. Maybe its just getting some more advertisement right now so people are rushing to put their preorders in.