Anime Sales in Japan - 2013 (Speculation, preorder rankings, etc)

[meruruchan]

I expected at least Vividred to make a decent comeback in the top 100, but nothing really happened.

Hetalia and GJ-Bu raised their heads a bit, Maoyuu looks so much weaker than ten days ago, and that's pretty much it.
We just have a bunch of series hanging in the 100-200s (300s before new episodes) and that's it.

Really hoping that at least Tamako and Vividred can recover.

[something]

Originally Posted by meruruchan

I expected at least Vividred to make a decent comeback in the top 100, but nothing really happened.

For Vividred, sine the fourth episode aired:
【2013年 02月 02日 02時(土)】 ***,120位
【2013年 02月 02日 03時(土)】 ***,125位
【2013年 02月 02日 04時(土)】 ***,129位
【2013年 02月 02日 05時(土)】 ***,110位
【2013年 02月 02日 06時(土)】 ***,101位

It's not a massive turnaround but it should get back into the top 100 soon. It'd be the first title to make it there other than Love Live in a few days. Not counting Yama no Susume since it was only just solicited.

[Yvese]

Originally Posted by something

Yeah, nothing is really happening at the moment. One thing I wish we could do easily with Stalker is compare all Vol. 1s from last season at around this time to shows at an equivalent point this season.

Fall preorders got solicited mostly in October, while Winter got solicited in January. Right now in early February for Winter is equivalent to early November for Fall.

End of October is when GirlPan started being dominant. Chuunibyou was strong pretty much from the beginning, but that became consistent from late October as well.

Jojo slowed down a little at the time equivalent to now, so that's one point of similarity. It picked up again later in November (equivalent to late February). Darkness followed the same pattern as Jojo. Little Busters! as well.

So I think there are similarities to this season, but the lull among the likely hits is deeper this time (more 200+ than 100+), and the exceptions that stay consistently strong are fewer (just LL! compared to both GirlPan and Chuu2) and not as strong overall (the latter ranked higher and more consistently so).

Fall '12 is an unusually strong season though, or at least unusually well spread out. There were 6 v1s over 6k in Fall '11, but 10 v1s over 6k in Fall '12, going up to 12 after Magi and Jojo rank, meaning twice as many 6k+ sellers.

Winter '11 only had 4 over 6k (granted Madoka was 80k and IS was 39k), while Winter '12 had 8. I think Winter '13 might be somewhere in between - spread out to more shows than the in '11, but without the two gargantuan hits.

I'm hoping Tamako is one of those titles where sales are primarily on release day rather than pre-orders.

I just don't see Tamako selling less than 5k. Heck, even Haganai is ranking similarly to Tamako and I don't see it selling < 5k either.

Maybe buyers are just burned out atm from christmas shopping and would rather wait a few months before dropping a few G's on another season of anime

[something]

Originally Posted by Yvese

I just don't see Tamako selling less than 5k. Heck, even Haganai is ranking similarly to Tamako and I don't see it selling < 5k either.

Haganai currently has a much better median and average rank (98/111 respectively) than Tamako (158/158), because it doesn't sink as far and as fast as Tamako does every week (and increasingly so each episode). It also has more than twice as many DVD points accumulated. Partly this is the effect of Haganai being a sequel and getting better early sales, but it's definitely doing measurably better than Tamako overall so far. Tamako actually has about the same median rank as Kotoura-san at the moment, despite having 2.5x as many points.

Best median rank of the season right now is Vivipan at 41 but that's because its been solicited for only a bit more than half as long or two thirds as other series so it's heavily influenced by its initial rush of sales.

[Megiddo]

So, I'm curious. For the past week or so Garupan vol. 1 has been #1 or #2 on HMV's list. Did it ever appear in any of the Oricon daily rankings in that time?

[something]

Originally Posted by Megiddo

So, I'm curious. For the past week or so Garupan vol. 1 has been #1 or #2 on HMV's list. Did it ever appear in any of the Oricon daily rankings in that time?

http://www3.atchs.jp/test/read.cgi/u.../1358138212/23
**9 *** *19 *15 *** *20 *** | -- | ガールズ&パンツァー 1

Yep, four times this week. It's guaranteed to rank again

In general lots of interesting stuff in the rankings, but it's hard to draw any good predictions from it. Jojo looks like it could easily sell 10k BDs for the first volume, plus a few thousand more DVDs. Magi could be 10k combined. Sakurasou is looking better than Campione and OniAi on BD but that's not saying a lot.

[RyanSaotome]

Um... does anyone know why Amnesia randomly jumped into the top #100 after being in the #5000 range a few hours earlier?

[meruruchan]

Originally Posted by RyanSaotome

Um... does anyone know why Amnesia randomly jumped into the top #100 after being in the #5000 range a few hours earlier?

Event announcement.

[AnimePhoenix]

【お知らせ/「ＡＭＮＥＳＩＡ」ファンイベント開催決定！】開催日　8月11日（日）開催場所　日比谷公会 堂/TVアニメ「AMNESIA　第1巻」もしくは「第2巻」のBＤ・DVD（初回限定版）をご購入頂いた方を 対象に、本イベントチケットの先行優先販売を行います。

Got this from Amnesia's(otoge anime) twitter.
I think it's something to do with the first and second DVD/BDs? Because the rankings for the first and second BD and DVD jumped all of a sudden.

[hpulley4]

Originally Posted by AnimePhoenix

Got this from Amnesia's(otoge anime) twitter.
I think it's something to do with the first and second DVD/BDs? Because the rankings for the first and second BD and DVD jumped all of a sudden.

Fan event ticket inclusion announcement.