Anime Sales in Japan - 2013 (Speculation, preorder rankings, etc)

[Nikopol]

",,492 Mondaiji vol.1"
not surprised to see poor Black Rabbit ranking so low (though i'm seriously starting to think about an import myself), but

",,531 Sasami vol.1"
Wow, how low the gods have fallen! Should "random crazy weirdness" not be enough to woo the Shaft fans?

[hpulley4]

Originally Posted by Nikopol

",,492 Mondaiji vol.1"
not surprised to see poor Black Rabbit ranking so low (though i'm seriously starting to think about an import myself), but

",,531 Sasami vol.1"
Wow, how low the gods have fallen! Should "random crazy weirdness" not be enough to woo the Shaft fans?

Are those predicted totals for volume ones? Ouch...

Must say the predictions are almost a problem. It creates self fulfilling prophecies of both failure and success, shows which might have done OK barely sell, could it be because of low predictions making people decide not to buy a "likely bomb"? Bandwagons create runaway successes, that's good I guess on the positive side.

The show's success seems firmly set in the predictions for the first volume sales. That's where and when you need to market your series, right when you solicit the first volume. Girls Und Panzer type surprises aside, it is pretty much over after that, fans will keep on buying it unless you do something really stupid but there doesn't seem to be much opportunity for more than a few stragglers to pick up the series later on. Sales can drop off after the first one but when was the last time a second volume went up without an event ticket being the difference?

I don't care if I am the only person who buys Sukitte ii na yo. I buy the shows I love no matter what the charts predict and the sales figures show for real. It is a bit disappointing when no one else feels the way but not much I can do about that. Me posting or tweeting that I have preordered a disc is not likely to create any bandwagons...

[meruruchan]

Meanwhile, Tamakoma comes back at full force at HMV:

001位 たまこまーけっと 2 【Blu-ray】
002位 魔法少女ﾘﾘｶﾙなのはTHE MOVIE 2ND A'S -超特装版(LTD)
003位 たまこまーけっと 1 【Blu-ray】
004位 中二病でも恋がしたい！ 3
005位 たまこまーけっと 6 【Blu-ray】
006位 たまこまーけっと 5 【Blu-ray】
007位 たまこまーけっと 4 【Blu-ray】
008位 たまこまーけっと 3 【Blu-ray】

I would really like to know how 'big' they are...
Maybe 10 people preordering a show are enough to get to the top and maybe it's way more. Dunno.

[Nikopol]

Originally Posted by hpulley4

Are those predicted totals for volume ones? Ouch...

[...]

They are only stalker points from volare's post before mine.

We're still very early in the pre-order phase, so actual sales might look very differently.

[something]

As for Sasami-san, well, it's a bit disappointing because I find it to be enjoyable (though probably not enough to import over all the other great shows) but it's hardly unusual for a Shinbou/Shaft show to sell poorly. Monogatari and Madoka have really skewed perceptions of what Shaft does on average.

Originally Posted by meruruchan

Meanwhile, Tamakoma comes back at full force at HMV

I'd love to believe this matters a lot, but Tamakoma does so poorly at Amazon that a once-a-week (if that) bump at HMV probably does not offset it to any significant degree. Compare to Chuunibyou, which pretty much always dominated, or even Yuru Yuri♪♪ which also outperformed stalker modestly on the strength of dominating HMV.

At this point, if Tamakoma does any better than 4-5k Vol. 1, we have to consider that a significant surprise, just looking objectively at the data. For Tamakoma to be a hit closer to 10k will require a profound change in how it's been perceived so far, or a level of Amazon non-representativeness on par with Dog Days or higher. All of which is possible but it'd be a real shot in the dark to rely on it.

(What it funny is the disconnect between Japanese and western fans, with some of the latter claiming this proves fans are tired of KyoAni's otaku-focus - apparently already forgetting Chuunibyou's success - while the Japanese fans who actually buy the stuff are turning away because it's "not otaku enough" and lacks their preferred forms of pandering. It's like two different worlds sometimes.)

Originally Posted by hpulley4

Are those predicted totals for volume ones? Ouch...

Just current point totals, though without DVD, which is an oversight. OreShura for example is actually doing much better than you'd think from looking at BD only, because it has such a high ratio of sales going to DVD compared to other male-targeted shows. Meanwhile Love Live is BD only so it needs to keep a modest lead over other titles to stay on top considering some of them will rank on DVD.

In any event the Stalker final predictions are still pretty meaningless right now which is why I don't like to post them, though current point totals are okay and I post them occasionally.

Must say the predictions are almost a problem. It creates self fulfilling prophecies of both failure and success, shows which might have done OK barely sell, could it be because of low predictions making people decide not to buy a "likely bomb"? Bandwagons create runaway successes, that's good I guess on the positive side.

To an extent, but fandom can be very hive-mind in general. Once a narrative takes hold about a show - of which stalker predictions are more symptom than cause - it becomes, as you say, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Sales can drop off after the first one but when was the last time a second volume went up without an event ticket being the difference?

It's very rare, yes. I've come across the phenomenon a little more often earlier in the 00s decade as I go adding historical data to my spreadsheet, but it's hard to know if that's just a case of inadequate distribution of earlier volumes (see T&B, Mouretsu, etc) or if sales really jumped from 2500 to 5000 in a month. Sales in general are a lot less even back then though, because making the ranking was so hard.

When it does happen nowadays it tends to be fairly small-scale. Hyouka for example, gradually rose until Vol. 4 had the best sales, while earlier volumes only caught up and surpassed it over the long haul, in the yearly list. But we're talking maybe a 10% increase from first to fourth volumes.

[Damius]

Originally Posted by hpulley4

I don't care if I am the only person who buys Sukitte ii na yo. I buy the shows I love no matter what the charts predict and the sales figures show for real. It is a bit disappointing when no one else feels the way but not much I can do about that. Me posting or tweeting that I have preordered a disc is not likely to create any bandwagons...

It sure would be better if something like Sukitte ii na yo. would have sell better... If I had a better job, it would have sell one more copy. You sure need to post or tweet about it even more since it doesn't sell.

[hpulley4]

Originally Posted by Damius

It sure would be better if something like Sukitte ii na yo. would have sell better... If I had a better job, it would have sell one more copy. You sure need to post or tweet about it even more since it doesn't sell.

I tweet when I unwrap them but obviously I need to tweet while it is airing and when I order stuff to be a bit more helpful. By the time volume one has arrived it is too late! I will try to be a more active tsubuyaku hito...

Of course I watch on Crunchyroll mostly so it can be a week late... I need to tweet while it is on, sight unseen but I guess generic superlatives can be sent anytime...

[HitokiriShadow]

Originally Posted by hpulley4

I tweet when I unwrap them but obviously I need to tweet while it is airing and when I order stuff to be a bit more helpful. By the time volume one has arrived it is too late! I will try to be a more active tsubuyaku hito...

Of course I watch on Crunchyroll mostly so it can be a week late... I need to tweet while it is on, sight unseen but I guess generic superlatives can be sent anytime...

Who are you on Twitter?

[niconico7272]

GaruPan v1 can now be ordered again on Amazon JP at ￥7,350. Amazon JP states that GaruPan v1 will be back in stock on February 11, 2013. It'll be interesting to see the ranking changes in the next few hours/days...

[hpulley4]

Originally Posted by HitokiriShadow

Who are you on Twitter?

This board software seems a bit old. It has space for an ICQ number, which I had 10-15 years ago, but not for twitter. I made my twitter account page my home page. I am HarryPulley there. Not as active lately since I rarely get responses, guess I am not interesting enough but as I said I need to remedy that...

http://www.twitter.com/HarryPulley