Anime Sales in Japan - 2011

[something]

http://jbbs.livedoor.jp/bbs/read.cgi...1293278942/159

Preliminary list. 480 DVD, ~378 BD threshold.


2011 08/08~08/14 DVD List
*1 (**9) **2 4,756 *,*16,891 **2 Hakuouki Sekkaroku v1 Okita Souji
*2 (*13) *18 3,915 *,244,164 **9 Karigurashi no Arrietty
*3 (*29) *45 1,984 1,089,823 503 Tonari no Totoro
*4 (*54) *62 *,994 *,**8,499 **4 ONE PIECE Mugiwara Chase
*5 (*57) --- *,933 *,***,933 **1 Redline LE
*6 (*59) --- *,909 *,733,102 457 Tenkuu no Shiro Laputa
*7 (*63) --- *,865 *,***,865 **1 Katte ni Kaizou v2
*8 (*71) *16 *,815 *,**4,804 **2 Manga Nihon Mukashibanashi DVD Box v3
*9 (*72) --- *,812 *,463,487 451 Majo no Takkyuubin
10 (*75) *47 *,802 *,*26,760 **4 ONE PIECE Log Collection "GOD"
11 (*92) *66 *,736 *,*10,967 **4 Precure All Stars DX3 Mirai ni Todoke! Sekai wo Taunagaru ☆ Nijiiro no Hana LE
12 (---) *48 *,625 *,*16,519 **3 Gintama' v1
13 (---) --- *,566 *,642,761 338 Kaze no Tani no Nausicaä
14 (---) --- *,530 *,333,200 293 Mononoke-hime
15 (---) --- *,502 *,***,502 **1 Redline RE
16 (---) --- *,494 *,**3,813 **4 Nintama Rantarou Ninjutsu Gakuen Zenin Shutsudou! RE
17 (---) --- *,480 2,362,464 359 Sen to Chihiro no Kamikakushi

-- (*25) --- 2,085 *,**2,085 **1 Suzumura Ken'ichi Live Tour 2011 "Chronicle to the future"
-- (*40) *12 1,232 *,**6,870 **2 K-ON!! Live Event ~Come With Me!!~
-- (*98) *81 *,715 *,**8,256 **4 Hatsune Miku Vision

2011 08/08~08/14 BD List
*2 (*4) -- 2,851 *2,851 *1 Katte ni Kaizou v2 Limited Edition
*3 (*7) -- 1,988 *1,988 *1 Redline LE
*5 (16) -- *,846 **,846 *1 Appleseed XIII v2
*7 (21) 10 *,668 54,621 *3 Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica v4
*8 (23) -- *,644 **,644 *1 Redline RE
*9 (25) 16 *,598 26,309 *3 Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai v2
-- (33) 47 *,479 56,400 *9 Karigurashi no Arietty
-- (37) 21 *,442 14,935 *3 Steins;Gate v2
-- (46) 23 *,378 23,902 *3 Infinite Stratos v4

-- (*6) *1 2,489 34,294 *2 K-ON!! Live Event ~Come With Me!!~


These off weeks that are just full of movies are so boring. And slow week for anime BDs. Only 9 of the top 50, and threshold is still too high for Madoka apparently. I guess there will never again be days of BD thresholds in the 200s. Unless Oricon decides to increase BDs to 100...


Spring update:
Gintama' v1 adds 625 for 64,215.

AnoHana v2 adds 598 taking it to 31,628.

Steins;Gate v2 adds 442 to total 14,935.


Winter update:
Madoka v4 adds 668, totaling 63,547.

Infinite Stratos v4 adds 378 for 32,571.


Past seasons:
Nothing.


Mahou Shoujo Madoka Magica:
Vol 1: 78,237 (12 wk)
Vol 2: 72,507 (*8 wk)
Vol 3: 65,838 (*4 wk)
Vol 4: 63,547 -> 64,215 (*3 wk) - Adds 668 BDs.
Vol 5: **,*** (** wk)
Vol 6: **,*** (** wk)
Current average: 70,199

Ano Hi Mita Hana no Namae wo Bokutachi wa Mada Shiranai:
Vol 1: 44,711 (*4 wk)
Vol 2: 31,030 -> 31,628 (*3 wk) - Adds 598 BDs
Vol 3: **,*** (** wk)
Vol 4: **,*** (** wk)
Vol 5: **,*** (** wk)
Vol 6: **,*** (** wk)
Current average: 38,170


OVAs, Movies, Boxsets etc:
K-ON!! ~Come With Me!! adds 2489/1232 bringing its total over 40k to 41,164. Which is amazing, because Let's Go! "only" did 40,360 after seven weeks.


By the way, Idolmaster OP "READY!!" sold 26,446 first week. Anyone know how that compares to other major Idolmaster music releases? Expecting it's gotta be pretty up there since it's an anime OP.

TV Vol. 1 next week is C, then an empty week, then Hen Semi.


Link to TV anime top-sellers list
Link to Vol. 1 Sales by Season

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by Aanon

The difference between the lowest and highest value here is 3,194, approx 5% difference. Compare that to Bake's difference of 27,322 (72,207 - 44,885) and we're talking about really two different animals in first week sales. Interestingly though, if you look at the average first week sales value across all four Madoka volumes compared to all six Bake volumes, there's a very small difference of 437 (Bake 61,885 - Madoka 61,448) between the two.

Why are you including Bake Vol 1's first week? It was sold out and under-shipped, I have no idea why you're including it apart from trying to skew figures to make your argument look better. Bake Vol 2 to Vol 6 first week avg is 65,285 copies and this is a series that achieved growth in first sales (3 outsold 2, 4 outsold 3, 6 outsold 4) most of the time unlike Madoka which is going in the other direction. (only reason 2 outsold 1 was the recall issue, 1 outsold 2 in every other comparable week for the first 5 weeks)

So again, I think for Madoka what will be the determining factor is not the first week, but the sales after that week of which it'll take time to see the outcome.

I agree, which is why the downward trend that has lasted for 3 volumes is quite telling.

2nd-4th Weeks on BD

Vol 1 - 4823, 1485, 835 (7143)
Vol 2 - 3607, 941, 668 (5216)
Vol 3 - 3166, 797, 545 (4508)
Vol 4 - 2699, 668, N/A (3911 if Week 4 is 544 copies)

[something]

Originally Posted by Westlo

[Madoka/Bake sales talk]

This sure ought to have an impact on Vol. 6 sales. I still don't think Madoka has any chance of beating a 78k average but I can't wait to see what kind of bump this creates for the last volume. Though by the time we get to Vol. 6 we'll be so far down below Vol. 1 (in absolute numbers, not necessarily percentage) that I don't know how much difference it will make.

Should have been a director's cut of episode 10, though. I'm not sure the ending needs any improvement at all. I thought it was perfect and worry that the only way to go is down... but I'll keep faith in their ability to pleasantly surprise me.

[Aanon]

I don't even know what to say when including all the sales numbers is considered "skewing" the data. Did you even look at the link I showed?

Here's the data:

Bake Avg Sales
1st week 61,885 78.66%
FO Sales 16,786 21.34%
Total: 78,671

K-ON Avg Sales (2009)
1st week 34,355 78.38%
FO Sales 9,475 21.62%
Total: 43,830

Haruhi Avg Sales
1st week 33,017 79.00%
FO Sales 8,779 21.00%
Total: 41,796

It shows that despite Bake having a poor first week showing for volume 1, the proportion of sales of first week vs. total sales is about the same as other contemporary anime successes like K-ON and Haruhi. Each of those had a different pattern in sales, but in the end it showed around a 79/21% distribution. There is no reason to believe Madoka would do worse than these three in sales distribution when it's not showing any signs of underperforming. In fact, for the last reported numbers of all but volume 4, it was actually surpassing equivalent Bake volumes during the same sales time period. We also see while it's not making the weekly Oricon reporting threshold, we do see all volumes are still showing sales on amaran. Too bad we won't know until January what the outcome is to this.

Edited to add: Furthermore, we haven't even seen the numbers for Madoka volume 5 and 6 that many consider will have stronger sales numbers than we've seen in recent volumes, e.g. 3 and 4.

Also since we're on the topic of predictions, here are mine based on some sales number crunching and knowledge of the volumes:

- Madoka BD/DVD Volume 5 and 6 will have first week sales that are higher than what we've seen for Volumes 3 and 4, resulting in a first week volume average slightly higher than Bake's.

- Madoka BD/DVD Volume 1 sales will be higher than Bake Volume 1 and an 80% of being higher than Bake Volume 4.

- The outcome won't be known until the end of the year, but I predict Madoka has a 55/45% chance of slightly outdoing Bake. It will be close either way.

[something]

Originally Posted by Aanon

Each of those had a different pattern in sales, but in the end it showed around a 79/21% distribution.

Huh, that's pretty cool actually, for them to all be so close. I was curious so I checked a few more that averaged high:

K-ON!!
Total: 39,385
1st week: 31,069 (78.8%)
FO sales: 8,315 (21.1%)

- K-ON!! is exactly dead on, almost frighteningly so.

Railgun
Total: 24,495
1st week: 20,054 (81.8%)
FO sales: 4,440 (18.1%)

- Close. Likely lower FO sales because we're getting into lower total sales territory and thus more quickly volumes fall below the thresholds and thus the long tail isn't quite as long.

Infinite Stratos
Total: 34,666 [ongoing, 4/6 vols]
1st week: 29,881 (86.2%)
FO sales: 4,784 (13.8%)

OreImo
Total: 23,808
1st week: 21,059 (88.8%)
FO sales: 2,749 (11.5%)

- IS and OreImo are notably lower now, but it'll be interesting to see how much the gap to 21% closes with year end numbers (and the rest of IS' run)

Hetalia Axis Powers
Total: 23,287
1st week: 14,111 (60.6%)
FO sales: 9,176 (34.4%)

- Hetalia season one on the other hand is probably one of the more extreme examples of minimal first week domination, and major increase in sales over time. not really relevant to our discussion here, just included for the hell of it.

Too bad about the small sample size. And a shame we can't do many other 30k+ BD/DVD series, particularly Gundam 00, Code Geass or Macross Frontier (well you can, but it's not apples to apples). We don't have good 1st week sales for them, because most or all of the BD numbers are only available in year-end totals. Actual weekly BD numbers did not start getting disclosed until August 2009, when those shows were over or nearly so.

But even with just Bake, K-ON!, K-ON!!, AB! and Haruhi, you've got a population of buyers that is going to be very similar to those buying Madoka.

...Still, I think the gap is going to prove a little too much for Madoka to make up. But we'll see.

[hissatsu]

Originally Posted by something

*5 (***) --- *,933 *,***,933 **1 Redline LE (DVD)
15 (***) --- *,502 *,***,502 **1 Redline RE (DVD)
*3 (*7) -- 1,988 *1,988 *1 Redline LE (BD)
*8 (**) -- *,644 **,644 *1 Redline RE (BD)

Oh, REDLINE. After bombing in theatres, even if you add another 1000-1500 on top of that in upcoming weeks, and throw in whatever crumbs they get from overseas licensing, I really doubt this is going to be anything but a big loss for MADHOUSE after 7 years in production. *sniff*

[MelancholicMariya]

Originally Posted by something

*2 (*4) -- 2,851 *2,851 *1 Katte ni Kaizou v2 Limited Edition

As decent as this is for a SHAFT show, I don't think this'll get a TV series. A real shame.

[something]

http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-3429.html

Aaaand I think we have to give up ever knowing Idolmaster's real sales. If I'm reading right, Vol.2+ will also have Gravure For You game/bd/cd packages available, all of which will undoubtedly be counted as games.

Bye bye sales numbers for what could have been one of the biggest titles of the year.

[Suzuku]

Originally Posted by something

http://yaraon.blog109.fc2.com/blog-entry-3429.html

Aaaand I think we have to give up ever knowing Idolmaster's real sales. If I'm reading right, Vol.2+ will also have Gravure For You game/bd/cd packages available, all of which will undoubtedly be counted as games.

Bye bye sales numbers for what could have been one of the biggest titles of the year.

Thing is I don't think those gavure packs will that much effect on what the original sales would have been. Vol 1 is still the only one that would be really skewed by this.

[something]

Originally Posted by Suzuku

Thing is I don't think those gavure packs will that much effect on what the original sales would have been. Vol 1 is still the only one that would be really skewed by this.

Also comes with a CD single too. If that's not available in the BD-only release then it'll definitely have an impact. We'll know better when we see the sales difference between v1 and v2 though.