Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[something]

Upcoming releases for: September 10-16 2012
...

No really, no anime is coming out next week at all. Ought to be some low thresholds... unless a lot of non-anime stuff is being released.

[something]

Originally Posted by something

Yep, just noticed. Hooray! I'll have the update up a bit later, I really need to get to work now. Also I guess this means this thread is moving from Tues/Thurs to Tues/Fri.

Oh, better news, someone posted it on 2chan after all:
http://read2ch.com/r/poverty/1347623161/#t559

I'll fill in the missing rankings now. I hope whoever has this does it every week as this is a hell of a lot easier to work with than the DVD/BD Wiki.

[ultimatemegax]

Originally Posted by something

Oh, better news, someone posted it on 2chan after all:
http://read2ch.com/r/poverty/1347623161/#t559

I'll fill in the missing rankings now. I hope whoever has this does it every week as this is a hell of a lot easier to work with than the DVD/BD Wiki.

I can't imagine it not being posted every week. 2ch is tougher to stop than livedoor. The full bunko/manga/general book listings (anime/LN related) were posted this week per normal. As tough as it may be to keep an eye on that thread due to how fast it moves, that's probably your best resource (I looked at previous versions of it yesterday but saw nothing).

[something]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

The full bunko/manga/general book listings (anime/LN related) were posted this week per normal.

The Livedoor light novel thread is still posting those too. Dunno if they've just flown under the radar or what.

As tough as it may be to keep an eye on that thread due to how fast it moves, that's probably your best resource (I looked at previous versions of it yesterday but saw nothing).

I wouldn't be able to do it if it were 2ch itself, because they get archived and removed within a few hours sometimes, and the board they're on has a bajillion threads on other topics too so things get *buried*. But it's not so bad if I use read2ch. Still a lot of crud to scroll through either way, though. I've just trained my eyes to look for posts that include a bunch of numbers and asterisks, or more than 2-3 lines. still takes about 2 minutes to scroll through a 1,000 post thread though.

[catclan]

Originally Posted by something

I wouldn't be able to do it if it were 2ch itself, because they get archived and removed within a few hours sometimes, and the board they're on has a bajillion threads on other topics too so things get *buried*. But it's not so bad if I use read2ch. Still a lot of crud to scroll through either way, though. I've just trained my eyes to look for posts that include a bunch of numbers and asterisks, or more than 2-3 lines. still takes about 2 minutes to scroll through a 1,000 post thread though.

As always thank you for your hard work. I have a deep respect for all the effort you do.

The 803 units for the Moribito Blu-Ray Box sets doesn't sounds like a lot, but each one was 29400 yens. So I have to wonder if this list was ordered by cost * units, instead of just units how different would it be. In comparison Achi Kochi 4 almost sold the double of units than this box set, but in the cost * units variable Moribito sold almost 2.5 times more. Using this variable this box set would rank just below the Oda Nobuna vol. 1 entry, making it into the top 10.

[something]

Originally Posted by catclan

The 803 units for the Moribito Blu-Ray Box sets doesn't sounds like a lot, but each one was 29400 yens. So I have to wonder if this list was ordered by cost * units, instead of just units how different would it be. In comparison Achi Kochi 4 almost sold the double of units than this box set, but in the cost * units variable Moribito sold almost 2.5 times more. Using this variable this box set would rank just below the Oda Nobuna vol. 1 entry, making it into the top 10.

True, but I think that's an uneven comparison. After all, the combined production cost of the material contained within the Moribito BD Box is far, far higher than the production cost of the 2 episodes on Acchi Kocchi v4, so you'd want to make a lot more money.

Put another way, Acchi Kocchi v4 BD is being sold at ¥3,360/ep while the Moribito BD Box is being sold at ¥1,130/ep. You need to sell 3x as many Moribito boxes as Acchi Kocchi volumes to get the same return on investment per episode.

Of course it's more complicated than that, since different shows have different budgets and Moribito was already released before so the BD Box isn't intended to sell as much as the original release, just to add on to the sales of the original (and the DVD boxes). They're rather different products.

I try only to compare like to like, i.e. boxsets to boxsets, singles to singles. Even within boxsets, I'd make distinctions between BD boxset as first ever release (Fate/Zero), BD boxset as re-release with a previous BD singles release (Bakemonogatari, Strike Witches 2), and BD boxset as re-release with no previous BD singles (most BD boxes, including Moribito). Then DVD boxsets have their own slightly different dynamic and expectations. Plus of course length is another important consideration.

In the end, 803 isn't good for a BD box. You can compare it to some of the more successful BD boxsets in this list. It only include re-releases though doesn't distinguish between "had BDs before" and "first time on BD". 33 different boxsets have sold ¥100,000,000 with many far higher. Moribito is only ¥23,608,200 or about $300,000 USD. Compare to Haruhi at about $17,000,000 USD.

[Hououin91]

@something

How will you handle saki? The next Br re-release will be a lot cheaper so probably you will add it to the old one but multiplying the new sales with the new cost amount. ((OldS*Old€)+(NewS*New€)) this?

It's a stupid question but I'm curious, cause I really like Saki

BTW I'm really happy with the news (not losing data ftw). Keep up with the great work you've been doing.

[something]

Originally Posted by Hououin91

How will you handle saki? The next Br re-release will be a lot cheaper so probably you will add it to the old one but multiplying the new sales with the new cost amount. ((OldS*Old€)+(NewS*New€)) this?

I'd been thinking about how to handle it too, and yes I'll be doing what you note. If something has multiple boxes with different prices, it'll just be like (1,000 * ¥1,000) + (1,000 * ¥2,000) = ¥3,000,000.

It'll mess up the formatting for one line, but oh well.

[something]

In recent days, the 2ch sales thread has been recording sales estimates from posters for the upcoming Fall season. Someone compiled the answers and put it in a spreadsheet online. While this really means nothing of consequence (they're just blind guesses), I'm noting it down so I can compare later to see how close people were.

116 respondents total, but not everyone guessed for every show.

Key: average (median) - Title

19,786 (20,000) - Little Busters!
16,624 (15,000) - Magi
12,315 (10,000) - K
11,740 (10,000) - Chuunibyou Demo Koi ga Shitai!
10,703 (10,000) - Gintama (2012) [reruns plus some new episodes]
10,668 (*7,000) - Psycho-Pass

*7,986 (*6,000) - Initial D Fifth Stage
*7,640 (*8,000) - Hidamari Sketch x Honeycomb
*6,847 (*6,500) - To LOVE-Ru Darkness
*6,379 (*6,000) - Robotics;Notes
*5,816 (*5,000) - Busou Shinki
*5,419 (*5,000) - Zetsuen no Tempest
*4,921 (*5,000) - Sakura-sou no Pet na Kanojo
*4,608 (*3,500) - Shin Sekai Yori
*3,770 (*3,500) - Girls und Panzer
*3,645 (*3,000) - Code:Breaker
*3,463 (*2,500) - Jojo no Kimyou na Bouken
*3,291 (*3,000) - Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun
*2,968 (*3,000) - Hayate no Gotoku: can't Take My Eyes Off you

*2,740 (*2,650) - Oniichan Dakedo Ai sae Areba Kankeinai yo ne!
*2,686 (*2,000) - BTOOOM!
*2,647 (*2,500) - Jormungand Perfect Order
*2,254 (*2,000) - Seitokai no Ichizon (2012)
*1,974 (*1,500) - Sukitte Ii na yo
*1,767 (*1,500) - Hiiro no Kakera 2
*1,685 (*1,650) - Kami-sama Hajimemashita
*1,200 (*1,000) - Bakuman. 3
*1,100 (*1,000) - Ixion Saga DT
*1,028 (*1,000) - Aoi Sekai no Chuushin de
**,785 (**,500) - Teekyuu
**,523 (**,500) - Medaka Box Abnormal
**,465 (**,500) - Ebiten: Kouritsu Ebisugawa Koukou Tenmonbu
**,357 (**,250) - Litchi Hikari Club

Ebiten releases like a Fall show so I guess that's why it's included.

Median is probably more interesting than average here, actually, because someone could say something ridiculous like "Ebiten, 40,000!" and screw the average. That said, most of the averages are pretty close to the median, which implies a modest degree of consensus and not much in the way of extreme outliers. Psycho Pass had a fair degree of spread in guesses though. Would also be interesting to see the mode (most frequent single number) rounded to the nearest 1k but I'm guessing it's similar.

Most of these predictions seem pretty reasonable to me, though I hope Hidamari can hit closer to 9k this time. I'm also not sold on Psycho Pass being a 10k hit yet - neither are a lot of people apparently, with the big variation in replies.

Slightly surprised to see Busou Shinki so high, and I would have been surprised at Magi before I found out it's a Nichigo (think FMA's and Geass' time slot) show. So I guess that's possible.

The Chuu2koi predictions are about where my expectations are, and it's not surprising Little Busters! is safely on top.

K is clearly the thread's prediction for fujoshi show of the season.

Initial D is the dark horse, I think. Posters were pretty consistent with their guesses on that one, but the last Initial D TV outing averaged 28,537. It all comes down to how much of its fandom is left, since it has been quite a long time since the last season.

[something]

http://read2ch.com/r/poverty/1347955535/#t44
http://myanimelist.net/forum/?topicid=492991

Full list? 282 DVD threshold, 253 BD.

Nobody posted a Thursday update anywhere and DVDBD Wiki did this week's updates without anything more than the Tuesday data, so given the low thresholds I guess I can believe nothing got added.


2012 09/10~09/16 DVD List
*4 (***) *** 1,012 1,159,578 560 Tonari no Totoro
*9 (***) *** *,658 *,*12,737 **3 Kuroko no Basuke v2
12 (***) *** *,567 *,*22,771 **4 ONE PIECE Log Collection "FRANKY"
13 (***) *** *,499 *,*21,404 **4 ONE PIECE Log Collection "THRILLER BARK"
14 (***) *** *,491 *,*19,900 *10 Summer Wars (7/2012 rel.)
15 (***) *** *,475 *,*57,054 *13 Kokurikozaka Kara
19 (***) --- *,400 *,488,661 *** Majo no Takkyuubin
20 (***) *** *,369 *,906,796 109 Gake no Ue no Ponyo
** (***) --- *,308 2,376,541 *** Sen to Chihiro no Kamikakushi
** (***) *16 *,291 *,**3,423 **2 Inazuma Eleven DVD Box v2
** (***) --- *,282 *,*12,854 *** Kuroko no Basuke v1
** (***) --- *,282 *,756,109 *** Tenkuu no Shiro Laputa


2012 09/10~09/16 BD List
** (**) *4 1,002 *8,760 *2 Tari Tari v1
** (**) *6 *,574 *4,053 *2 Oda Nobuna no Yabou v1
** (**) 21 *,409 10,481 *3 Kuroko no Basuke v2
** (**) 30 *,399 51,341 *4 Nisemonogatari v5
** (**) *5 *,359 *7,132 *2 Mouretsu Pirates v7
** (**) 19 *,335 *8,673 *3 Hyouka v3
** (**) *8 *,333 *3,275 *2 AKB0048 v3
** (**) 42 *,329 28,719 *4 Persona 4 v10
** (**) 39 *,282 *7,826 *2 Accel World v2
** (**) -- *,253 10,073 ** Toki wo Kakeru Shoujo (7/2012 rel.)

-- (**) ** *,737 20,203 *3 Hatsune Miku "Miku no Hi Daikanshasai", 2 Days Complete Box


No new releases means extremely low thresholds. This is one of those weeks where there's no excuse for not getting a second week for any half-decently selling show.
And big deal here is Kuroko v1 DVD coming back for some or all of weeks 5 through 8, adding 1,473 DVDs.
A bit disappointed K-ON! movie didn't rank again with such low thresholds. If it's already below 250 BDs a week, I don't think we'll see it again until the yearly.


Summer update:
Tari Tari v1 adds 1002 BDs, total 8,760.

Oda Nobuna v1 adds 574 BDs, total 4,852.


Spring update:
KuroBas v2 adds 409/658 for 23,218.
v1 also ranks, adding 282 DVDs in wk8. By looking at the cumulative total, that means it added anther 1,191 in wks5-7, and the total is 21,997.

Hyouka v3 adds 335 BDs in wk3, total 9,785. Damnit so close. 10k depends on the monthly reporting period being favorable. It would have to include all four first weeks, maybe five.

Accel World v2 adds 282 BDs, total 9,478.

AKB0048 v3 adds 333 for 4,269.


Winter update:
Nisemonogatari v5, final volume, adds 399 BDs, total 59,371. Final average, currently 59,816.

Mouretsu v7, final volume, adds 359 BDs, total 7,132. Hooray it got over 7k again. Final average: 7,337.


Past seasons:
Persona 4 v10, final volume, adds 329 BDs for 39,138. Current final average: 30,864.


OVAs, Movies, Boxsets etc:
n/a


Next week, Fate/Zero, Jintai, Yuru Yuri♪♪, Lupin Mine Fujiko, Horizon II, LagRin 2, and Binbougami.


Link to TV anime top-sellers list
Link to Vol. 1 Sales by Season