Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[something]

Did this for Summer, so here's the Fall version so far. Very much incomplete until everything gets solicited obviously.

Event Ticket only
• BTOOOM!
• Girls und Panzer
• Hidamari Sketch x Honeycomb
• Magi
• To LOVE-ru Darkness


Discounted Price only (min ¥1,000)
• Code:Breaker (-¥2,100)
• K (-¥3,150)
• Kami-sama Hajimemashita (-¥2,835)
• Shinsekai Yori (-¥3,675)
• Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun (-¥2,520)


Both Ticket & Discount
• n/a


Neither/Unconfirmed
• Busou Shinki
• Chuunibyou Demo Koi ga Shitai!
• Hayate no Gotoku! Can't Take My Eyes Off You
• Hiiro no Kakera S2
• Ixion Saga DT
• Jojo no Kimyou na Bouken
• Jormungand Perfect Order
• Little Busters!
• Medaka Box Abnormal
• Onii-chan Dakedo Ai Sae Areba Kankeinai yo ne
• Psycho Pass
• Robotics;Notes
• Sakurasou no Pet na Kanojo
• Seitokai no Ichizon Lv.2
• Sukitte Ii na yo.
• Zetsuen no Tempest


If anyone sees more solicitations with discounted Vol. 1s or event tickets (ticket applications really), let me know and I'll add. Thanks to WTK for the usual solicitation threads and catclan for ticket app info.

[catclan]

Originally Posted by something

Discounted Price only (min ¥1,000)
• Code:Breaker (-¥2,100)
• K (-¥3,150)
• Kami-sama Hajimemashita (-¥2,835)
• Shin Sekai Yori (-¥3,675)
• Tonari no Kaibutsu-kun (2+ not yet solicited, but v1 is only ¥4200)

Do you take in consideration that most of these volumes also have a lower episode number than normal? It's not like they are trying to appeal the consumers with a better price, just trying to adjust because of the low episode number it has.

Originally Posted by something

Thanks to WTK for the usual solicitation threads and catclan for ticket app info.

Glad I can help.

[something]

Originally Posted by catclan

Do you take in consideration that most of these volumes also have a lower episode number than normal? It's not like they are trying to appeal the consumers with a better price, just trying to adjust because of the low episode number it has.

I've found that this tends not to have any effect. Or worded another way, that the price still has an effect on sales, even if the reason (less episodes) is obvious and so in theory it shouldn't.

Discounts are usually coupled with an extra or two (like a CD or something else), which drives the sales up. Those same extras bundled into a full price volume would generally not increase sales as much. I think what the discounts really do is make the rest of the extras more accessible.

That and consumers rarely tend to think in terms of ¥/ep when making buying decisions. If we did, 11-14 volume two-cour shows would not be considered shocking, because after all, we don't complain (much) about buying a one-cour shows on 6-7 discs for very similar ¥/ep. I'm quite aware, mathematically, that I paid more per episode for Tamayura (¥3796) than for Hyouka (¥3675). But if you asked me which release format bothered me more, I would immediately say Hyouka, Kadokawa Marathon, arghblarghhate, etc.

Whatever the actual reason, I'm only interested in the effect on sales, regardless of the "why". My intention with these posts is to compile a list of titles for which we should take Vol. 1 sales with a grain of salt, understanding that based on event tickets or discounts, historically we can generally expect a more significant decline to the second volume than for releases without either of these incentives. There are of course exceptions.

[ultimatemegax]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuutsu BD-Box:
34,000 - Oricon
50,000 - Claimed Shipped (source date:2010/11/29)
Oricon coverage: 68%

Suzumiya Haruhi no Shoushitsu:
101,704 - LE BD
**2,030 - RE BD
*29,893 - LE DVD
**1,283 - RE DVD
134,910 - Total (Oricon)
200,000 - Claimed (Official Fanbook - Suzumiya Haruhi no Kansoku date:2011/05)
Oricon coverage: 67%

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuutsu/Gekisou (2006 DVDs+event)
321,165 - LE DVDs
*15,238 - RE DVDs (I put 1,600 for the ones not listed on DVD Wiki and added 100 extra for v7 due to the dance video extra)
*28,584 - Gekisou DVD
364,987 - Claimed
800,000 LE/RE DVDs (Source: Chou Gekkan Haruhi Newtype magazine date:2009/05)
Oricon coverage: 46%

Tiding up (excluding 2009+Gensou DVDs). You can include this if you want something, I just wanted to finish with what we know from the Haruhi franchise.

(1/2) Haruhi franchise totals (2006, Gekisou, BD-Box, Shoushitsu):
*533,897 - Oricon
1,050,000 - Claimed (Sourced above)
Oricon coverage: 50.8%

And this is why any comparison of Haruhi sales tends to underestimate the franchise compared to shows like -monogatari (80% Oricon coverage). In reality, from what we have (excluding movie, but adding BD-Boxes), both are around the same sales potential (83,333-85,000 per item), but since we use Oricon numbers, there's a huge gap.

Edit: Sorry for taking over the thread with Haruhi numbers. I've seen many sources use the Oricon numbers to say it/KyoAni's not as good as Shaft, but now there's a good source to refute that claim.

[something]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

Tiding up (excluding 2009+Gensou DVDs). You can include this if you want something, I just wanted to finish with what we know from the Haruhi franchise.

(1/2) Haruhi franchise totals (2006, Gekisou, BD-Box, Shoushitsu):
*533,897 - Oricon
1,050,000 - Claimed (Sourced above)
Oricon coverage: 50.8%

Thanks, added that and changed the formatting a bit to group things with multiple claims on separate parts of the franchise.

[Damius]

Originally Posted by something

Dog Days' v1 sells 6666/2530 for 9,196. Yessssssssssssssssssssssssss! Goddamn this is awesome, DD' and YRYR♪♪ both did well. Though DD' much moreso. This is a better number than the totals for DD v2-6, and only 4.5% less than DD v1wk1. Season three! Yuusha Nanami!

That is good enough numbers for a third season, that for sure! I really hope we will see an announcement at some point.

[Damius]

Originally Posted by MelancholicMariya

There's no way this isn't getting a third season at this rate. Its BDs and books are doing so well. Wouldn't be surprised if a third season is airing or announced by this time next year.

And a third season would increase the chances for a boxsets for the first two seasons. And buying the first two boxsets would let me buy the singles for the third.

[something]

Quick sanity check, I think I have the answer but wanted to run this by others. Pretty sure I've been using the wrong formula to calculate Stalker's over- and under-estimation of real sales all along.

Assume the following:
Column A: real first week sales reported by Oricon
Column B: final Stalker estimate

A simplified version of my old formula (without the various checks for errors and stuff)
=(A1/B1)-1

Oricon number divided by Stalker estimate, minus one to give underestimations a negative number, because it's formatted as percentage. But logging the Stalker estimates today made me realize this seems to be wrong.

Arcana Famiglia v1 DVD
Oricon: 2228
Stalker: 757

My old formula gives -66% which is kind of irrelevant, because that just means the difference between the two numbers is 66% of the Oricon total. who cares?

I'm pretty sure what I really want is:
=((A1-B1)/A1)

Which returns -194% for Arcana Famiglia, And that makes more sense to me. I think. Stalker undershot by 1,471 which is 194% of the Oricon number. When I look at the numbers I think "Oricon was almost three times Stalker" and so ~200% increase (aka 200% underestimation) makes sense.

Or is there some third way to do it that comes up with the most intuitive number? Given how much time as I spend with sales statistics, it probably sounds strange for me to say I never liked math, but it was always my least favorite subject by far.

[ultimatemegax]

Originally Posted by something

Assume the following:
Column A: real first week sales reported by Oricon
Column B: final Stalker estimate

Arcana Famiglia v1 DVD
Oricon: 2228
Stalker: 757

I'm pretty sure what I really want is:
=((A1-B1)/A1)

Which returns -194% for Arcana Famiglia, And that makes more sense to me. I think. Stalker undershot by 1,471 which is 194% of the Oricon number. When I look at the numbers I think "Oricon was almost three times Stalker" and so ~200% increase (aka 200% underestimation) makes sense.

Or is there some third way to do it that comes up with the most intuitive number? Given how much time as I spend with sales statistics, it probably sounds strange for me to say I never liked math, but it was always my least favorite subject by far.

Bold is your formula that you're using to get 194%. This is percent error. Another way to do what you want is to calculate (A1/B1)*100 which gives you the difference (294% for your example, meaning sales were 294% of Stalker estimates). If it were reversed and Stalker vastly overestimated by that amount, you'd say that sales were 34% of Stalker estimates. I think that would work better for you.

[something]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

Bold is your formula that you're using to get 194%. This is percent error. Another way to do what you want is to calculate (A1/B1)*100 which gives you the difference (294% for your example, meaning sales were 294% of Stalker estimates). If it were reversed and Stalker vastly overestimated by that amount, you'd say that sales were 34% of Stalker estimates. I think that would work better for you.

Hmm, guess there are multiple ways to do it really. I like the idea of having "exact match" be 0% and underestimations be negative numbers, but 294% does clearly indicate "sold three times more". Might do both, though gah my spreadsheet is so bloated as is.