Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[something]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

Stalker assigns points based on Amazon rankings alone. This does not take into account other retail stores both online and physical stores.

Yep, and from this comes the discussion of the "storefront" effect. Or, storefront + HMV rather.

This can have a big impact, but it's uncommon. The most extreme example lately is Arcana Famiglia, which did fully 3-4 times more sales than Stalker predicted. Dog Days' is another good example.

Dog Days Vol. 1 Week 1
Stalker: 3543/2109 = 5,652
Oricon: 6401/3226 = 9,627

Dog Days' Vol. 1 Week 1
Stalker: 3852/1379 = 5,231
Oricon: 6666/2530 = 9,196

Really big difference. There are some other things that can cause inaccurate estimates (unusually short pre-order period, highly uneven distribution of sales over time, etc) but the storefront effect is considered the main reason for underestimations.

Stalker does record the daily/weekly/monthly rankings from Gamers, Softmap, HMV, Rakuten, and Animate. Check out the links under 他通販サイト情報カテゴリ in the top menu. But it doesn't factor them into the points because data is just too scarce and inexact to measure appropriately, compared to the hourly updates available for literally every single DVD and BD on Amazon.

[Yvese]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

Stalker assigns points based on Amazon rankings alone. This does not take into account other retail stores both online and physical stores.

HMV is offering a bromide with each volume, a portrait with purchases of v1-3 and 4-6, and a collection box for all 6 Chuunibyou volumes with a 21% discount on each volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of people purchase from there due to all the goods and the discount compared to the 26% Amazon gives. Those purchases are not totaled into the points Stalker assigns though, so we won't know the effect until official numbers come out.

Good to know, thanks!

Those extras from HMV definitely look enticing.

Originally Posted by something

Yep, and from this comes the discussion of the "storefront" effect. Or, storefront + HMV rather.

This can have a big impact, but it's uncommon. The most extreme example lately is Arcana Famiglia, which did fully 3-4 times more sales than Stalker predicted. Dog Days' is another good example.

Dog Days Vol. 1 Week 1
Stalker: 3543/2109 = 5,652
Oricon: 6401/3226 = 9,627

Dog Days' Vol. 1 Week 1
Stalker: 3852/1379 = 5,231
Oricon: 6666/2530 = 9,196

Really big difference. There are some other things that can cause inaccurate estimates (unusually short pre-order period, highly uneven distribution of sales over time, etc) but the storefront effect is considered the main reason for underestimations.

Stalker does record the daily/weekly/monthly rankings from Gamers, Softmap, HMV, Rakuten, and Animate. Check out the links under 他通販サイト情報カテゴリ in the top menu. But it doesn't factor them into the points because data is just too scarce and inexact to measure appropriately, compared to the hourly updates available for literally every single DVD and BD on Amazon.

Thanks for the info.

I'm curious though, on stalker Chuunibyou is averaging 40-60 like you said. However, on the actual amazon rankings I'm seeing it at rank 20-30?

This is the page I'm looking at on amazon: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestselle...1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

Clearly I'm looking at the wrong page. I can't find what ranking stalker is using since I can't read Japanese and google translate doesn't help much ;p

[something]

Originally Posted by Yvese

I'm curious though, on stalker Chuunibyou is averaging 40-60 like you said. However, on the actual amazon rankings I'm seeing it at rank 20-30?
This is the page I'm looking at on amazon: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestselle...1?ie=UTF8&pg=1

The link above is Blu-Ray only. Stalker uses the bigger list of all Blu-Ray and DVD. Just go up one category on the left-hand side: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/dvd

A few of the DVDs are anime, but most are live concert DVDs from big mainstream bands. Seems to be the same ones all the time... Kat-Tun, Arashi, AKB, Exile, Mr. Children. Those plus anime tend to utterly dominate the Amazon rankings.

[Yvese]

Originally Posted by something

The link above is Blu-Ray only. Stalker uses the bigger list of all Blu-Ray and DVD. Just go up one category on the left-hand side: http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/dvd

A few of the DVDs are anime, but most are live concert DVDs from big mainstream bands. Those plus anime tend to utterly dominate the Amazon rankings.

Ah! Thanks! Bookmarked

Another question: I know now that stalker assigns points based on ranking, yet why is it that every time the points update on stalker, LB and Chuunibyou go up by nearly the same amount despite Chuunibyou being more than half of LB's rank? Same with Jojo.

[something]

Originally Posted by Yvese

Another question: I know now that stalker assigns points based on ranking, yet why is it that every time the points update on stalker, LB and Chuunibyou go up by nearly the same amount despite Chuunibyou being more than half of LB's rank? Same with Jojo.

Points are awarded daily based on the average rank the item held during the previous 24 hours. Once you get out of the top 20 or so, the difference in points per rank gets smaller and smaller.

The latest daily update added the following for the three you mention:
115 pts - Chuunibyou
*74 pts - Jojo
*70 pts - Little Busters

So Chuunibyou did get more, it just doesn't look like a huge amount because it's not - but it can add up over time.

What I've always wanted to see is a specific listing (say for all ranks from 1-500) of how many points each daily ranking is worth.

I do know that #1 is currently worth 2,400 points per day (the values have changed from time to time). It drops off rapidly from there - I think #2 is worth less than 2,000 and so on. Chuunibyou averaged probably in the mid-low 40s in the most recent daily period and got 115. For all I know the daily ranking average might be measured to a few decimal points, meaning the points might be more granular as well.

Edit: Also, high priced sets like BD boxes only accrue about 1/3rd or less the number of points per rank. I take this to imply that Stalker thinks that price has an impact on Amazon rankings, i.e. a ¥1,000 item that sells 1,000 units will rank lower than a ¥7,000 item that sells 1,000 units. I have no idea if this is true, but I assume it must be, otherwise all high priced items would be getting severely underestimated.

[Yvese]

Originally Posted by something

Points are awarded daily based on the average rank the item held during the previous 24 hours. Once you get out of the top 20 or so, the difference in points per rank gets smaller and smaller.

The latest daily update added the following for the three you mention:
115 pts - Chuunibyou
*74 pts - Jojo
*70 pts - Little Busters

So Chuunibyou did get more, it just doesn't look like a huge amount because it's not - but it can add up over time.

What I've always wanted to see is a specific listing (say for all ranks from 1-500) of how many points each daily ranking is worth.

I do know that #1 is currently worth 2,400 points per day (the values have changed from time to time). It drops off rapidly from there - I think #2 is worth less than 2,000 and so on. Chuunibyou averaged probably in the mid-low 40s in the most recent daily period and got 115. For all I know the daily ranking average might be measured to a few decimal points, meaning the points might be more granular as well.

Edit: Also, high priced sets like BD boxes only accrue about 1/3rd or less the number of points per rank. I take this to imply that Stalker thinks that price has an impact on Amazon rankings, i.e. a ¥1,000 item that sells 1,000 units will rank lower than a ¥7,000 item that sells 1,000 units. I have no idea if this is true, but I assume it must be, otherwise all high priced items would be getting severely underestimated.

Ah, I see. I didn't expect points to be that close even if there's a disparity in ranking between titles. I guess I shouldn't worry too much about it unless it's consistently in the top 20

Thanks again!

[meruruchan]

Ok, I have a question too:

What do Nico points exactly mean?
I'm asking it because you can see, say, Ixion Saga DT and To Love Ru Darkness having almost the same of these, while To Love Ru is 72nd with 3,771 points and Ixion is only 1,092nd with 135 points.

Do they matter at all?

[something]

Originally Posted by meruruchan

What do Nico points exactly mean?

The number of people who preordered the title at Amazon through the Niconico Douga marketplace.

And no, they have no significant correlation to actual sales. Generally, titles that are being broadcast on Niconico do disproportionately well, because people will click on the marketplace links after watching an episode.

[meruruchan]

Originally Posted by something

The number of people who preordered the title at Amazon through the Niconico Douga marketplace.

And no, they have no significant correlation to actual sales. Generally, titles that are being broadcast on Niconico do disproportionately well, because people will click on the marketplace links after watching an episode.

OK, I learned something. Thanks.

[Damius]

Originally Posted by something

Yuru Yuri♪♪ v2 sells 6018/1143, total 7,161, only 7.3% down on v1. The first three volumes have event ticket applications so we might see a bigger drop by v4. Perhaps most importantly, 7,161 is only 102 copies below v2wk1 of the first season. That's a very very good sign.

It's some good sales numbers. But still, I would like to be able to help... Fall season sure makes me regret to not have start importing around 2 series a season in 2011 instead of 2012...