Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[something]

Originally Posted by Hououin91

I wonder if ZnT F will do well :S

Current points/sales estimates are 1,173 BD and 588 DVDs with a release date of today (JST). I'd say 2k BDs at the most (being generous), and DVDs won't rank unless he threshold is fairly low. Below 3k combined seems almost guaranteed.

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by Hououin91

I wonder if ZnT F will do well :S

It's not like it matters, it's the final season after all and if you like the show who cares how it sells. Only worry about sales for things you want too see sequels for....

[something]

Originally Posted by Westlo

It's not like it matters, it's the final season after all and if you like the show who cares how it sells. Only worry about sales for things you want too see sequels for....

Sequels are the biggest thing, but in less direct ways it matters. Success makes it more likely that a given director/studio/author/genre/release format will be revisited, if it's considered profitable.

Not that I'd hold ZnT up as a shining example of any of those. But I think it does matter beyond sequels. It's half the reason I buy really... to support the show I like (often with the hope of sequels) but also to support the idea that Japan should make more like [insert show].

[MelancholicMariya]

For next week I'm curious as to how Guilty Crown vol. 2 will hold up in comparison to vol. 1. I'm going to assume there'll be a little drop, but not all that significant of a drop.

I'm curious as to how Guilty Crown will perform in the long run. By the time it's final volume is released will the series of dropped to like 5k BD or something like that? I think Ao no Exorcist did that. That dropped pretty hard from first to the most recent volume. Time will tell.

That said only four volumes of Guilty Crown have been solicited, each with 2 episodes per disc and the fifth volume has no information released so I'm curious if that's when they'll bump up the episode count to 3 episodes per disc and 2 episodes for the last disc.

We'll see. Maybe.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by MelancholicMariya

That said only four volumes of Guilty Crown have been solicited, each with 2 episodes per disc and the fifth volume has no information released so I'm curious if that's when they'll bump up the episode count to 3 episodes per disc and 2 episodes for the last disc.

Stores like Animate have placeholders for 11 volumes, so I think the expectation is that it will be 11 volumes at 2 episodes/disc (22 episodes in total). I generally wouldn't expect a show that's been doing 2 episodes per disc for the first four volumes to suddenly change the pattern half-way.

[MelancholicMariya]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

Stores like Animate have placeholders for 11 volumes, so I think the expectation is that it will be 11 volumes at 2 episodes/disc (22 episodes in total). I generally wouldn't expect a show that's been doing 2 episodes per disc for the first four volumes to suddenly change the pattern half-way.

I didn't actually know they were solicited on other stores. I was basing my logic on the fact no other stores which I went to (CDJapan, HMV, Amazon Japan and just looking on the official website) had beyond 4 up, but if there are 11 volumes solicited in other Japanese stores which specialize in this kinda thing then it's safe to assume it's 2 episodes per disc and 11 volumes.

The lack of information of volumes beyond 4 was a tad mysterious for a show so far into it's run for me.

[something]

Originally Posted by MelancholicMariya

For next week I'm curious as to how Guilty Crown vol. 2 will hold up in comparison to vol. 1. I'm going to assume there'll be a little drop, but not all that significant of a drop.

Vol. 1 wasn't discounted so I expect Vol. 2 won't drop much, although I don't know what extras Vol. 1 came with.

Currently Vol. 2 is at 4,798 BD and 1,676 DVD. Vol. 1 had 6,322 BD and 2,264 DVD. with a couple extra days counted. Stalker undercounted Vol. 1's first week sales by -21.3% on DVD and -11.8% on BD. If that held for Vol. 2, it'd be about 5,440 BD and 2,130 DVD for 7,570. I expect stalker will be undercounting Vol. 2 a little more than Vol. 1 though, and Vol. 2 has 7 more days before Stalker stops tallying points. So it could easily be 9k opening week.

As for the long haul, well, if it's indeed 11 discs it'll probably see fairly significant decline, but that's pretty natural.

By the time it's final volume is released will the series of dropped to like 5k BD or something like that? I think Ao no Exorcist did that. That dropped pretty hard from first to the most recent volume. Time will tell.

Not as much as AoEx, I don't think. AoEx is one of the more extreme examples. As of Vol. 8 it's off more than 60% from Vol. 1. It went 23,267 > 17,027 > 14,151 from Vol. 1 to Vol. 3 and is now doing 8-9k (total, not first week). Two volumes left.

[MelancholicMariya]

Originally Posted by something

Vol. 1 wasn't discounted so I expect Vol. 2 won't drop much, although I don't know what extras Vol. 1 came with.

Currently Vol. 2 is at 4,798 BD and 1,676 DVD. Vol. 1 had 6,322 BD and 2,264 DVD. with a couple extra days counted. Stalker undercounted Vol. 1's first week sales by -21.3% on DVD and -11.8% on BD. If that held for Vol. 2, it'd be about 5,440 BD and 2,130 DVD for 7,570. I expect stalker will be undercounting Vol. 2 a little more than Vol. 1 though, and Vol. 2 has 7 more days before Stalker stops tallying points. So it could easily be 9k opening week.

The first volume had a CD with four tracks in total, two songs remixed by Ryo/Supercell, and another two tracks which are just different versions of two tracks which were on the OST. The volume also included the storyboards for the entire first episode. The Supercell/Ryo stuff aside it's not much, but a little bit of Supercell can go a long way recently I've seen.

But, yeah it does sound like volume 2 will be fairly consistent with volume 1. A slow decline is what I'm expecting throughout the release.

By the time it's final volume is released will the series of dropped to like 5k BD or something like that? I think Ao no Exorcist did that. That dropped pretty hard from first to the most recent volume. Time will tell.

Not as much as AoEx, I don't think. AoEx is one of the more extreme examples. As of Vol. 8 it's off more than 60% from Vol. 1. It went 23,267 > 17,027 > 14,151 from Vol. 1 to Vol. 3 and is now doing 8-9k (total, not first week). Two volumes left.[/quote]

Sometimes I forget how bad Ao no Exorcist dropped. I mean I don't think a 60% drop is unheard of as far as I know, but that's pretty big of a drop. But whatever, for a shounen action series which is basically to sell more manga that's pretty fantastic.

[Hououin91]

It dropped when the fillers started... i guess. (AoE)

[Chipp12]

Originally Posted by MelancholicMariya

For next week I'm curious as to how Guilty Crown vol. 2 will hold up in comparison to vol. 1. I'm going to assume there'll be a little drop, but not all that significant of a drop.

I'm curious as to how Guilty Crown will perform in the long run. By the time it's final volume is released will the series of dropped to like 5k BD or something like that? I think Ao no Exorcist did that. That dropped pretty hard from first to the most recent volume. Time will tell.

That said only four volumes of Guilty Crown have been solicited, each with 2 episodes per disc and the fifth volume has no information released so I'm curious if that's when they'll bump up the episode count to 3 episodes per disc and 2 episodes for the last disc.

We'll see. Maybe.

I personally think that it dropped so hard because of it's dull fillerish ending.