Anime Sales in Japan - 2012

[something]

Originally Posted by BigOnAnime

Rinne no Lagrange is basically bombing, great...
I just can only hope the second cour causes a bump in sales.

It won't, unfortunately. As others are saying, seeing sales rise in a sequel is very rare, and usually only happens when multiple strong external factors are at play. Rinne is anime-original and has none of that. I expect this season/cour to average maybe 2.5k, at best, and season/cour two will be lucky to average 2k.

Well, at least Mouretsu is doing ok now. I love both of Satou's shows from Winter but if I had to pick only one to sell decently, it'd definitely be Mouretsu, currently my favorite show of 2012.

As for Squid Girl 2, why is it that it keeps selling basically half of what season 1 sold? That was like a 7k show, Squid Girl 2, that's just around a 3K show.

Same as above, this is unfortunately rather normal. Of the various reasons relentlessflame outlined in the link Draneor gave, my own opinion is that "it's not new anymore" is the biggest reason.

I tend to be pretty good about picking up sequels to shows I've imported (assuming I like the sequel, of course) but I do sometimes have to think long and hard about it. I love Ikamusume, and I am picking up !?, but that's with me ordering five series, whereas I assume most anime buyers (including Japanese, not just importers) pick only one or two each season.

And if you can only pick one or two, you're probably going to go for the shiny new show everyone is talking about. Certainly, if I only bought 2 shows in Fall, one would have been a sequel (Working'!!, better than the first) but the other would have been Haganai, leaving sequels like Shana III and Ikamusume!? out in the cold.

Still, I've been ordering regularly since the Summer 2009 season, and the only sequel I ever passed on was Kimi ni Todoke 2, and then only because I never finished importing the first season. I kinda soured on it after lovely Kurumi's arc was over, and I never wound up watching the sequel anyway.

Looking ahead, there's a possibility I skip KoreZom S2 this season (though it's great so far), but it's much too early to know which shows I want beyond Saki and Hyouka.

[Draneor]

Originally Posted by MelancholicMariya

I think my favourite example which is shown in that blog post is Nanoha. That went from 4k to 22k. I don't actually know how it built so much interest, but it did. Makes me wish I want into Nanoha at the time so I knew how this series built itself up as this huge thing.

I'm surprised Strikers sold 22k though, as I remember people really disliking it for whatever reason. I haven't seen Strikers I just stuck to the original, A's and the theatrical remakes so I have no idea what the problem might be.

Nanoha took a popular side character from a spinoff to an OK game and transformed her into something entirely different. By the time of StrikerS, it was pretty much dominating advertising for Megami, for example.

Different communities like different anime. Right now, Hyouka, for example, is not popular at A-S but is at FandomPost. Also, as you know, there is also often a gap between what takes Japan by storm and what overseas fans like. This can lead to hilarious statements, such downplaying the appeal of K-On! (ignoring the Disney channel picked up the re-runs, etc).

tldr, clusters of people like different things.

[Westlo]

Originally Posted by Draneor

Right now, Hyouka, for example, is not popular at A-S but is at FandomPost.

Don't let a group of pretentious morons circlejerking across A-S's forums perverse your view on what A-S thinks.

[something]

http://jbbs.livedoor.jp/bbs/read.cgi...1293278942/342

Full list is out, and the following was added. Original post has been updated accordingly.


2012 04/16~04/22 BD List
-- (21) -- *1,201 *1,201 *1 Shin Tennis no Ouji-sama v1
-- (22) -- *1,073 *1,073 *1 Sacred Seven Shirogane no Tsubasa
-- (27) -- **,841 **,841 *1 Ai no Kusabi ~retino~
-- (30) -- **,677 **,677 *1 Nurarihyon no Mago ~Sennen no Makyou~ v8
-- (50) (*,370)

-- (*4) -- *6,894 *6,894 *1 Tiger & Bunny Hero Awards 2011

Was kinda hoping Mouretsu could slip in again, with the threshold only being 370, but ah well. Vol. 1 is has been darting in and out of the top 100 lately, still, and Vol. 2 keeps spending time there, but it wasn't getting restocked until today so maybe we'll see something next week if the threshold isn't too terribly high. The timing just isn't working out for Mouretsu in terms of rankings.


Winter update:
Shin TeniPri starts at 1201/4770, total 5,971.


Fall update:
none


Past seasons:
Nurarihyon 2 v8, final volume, does 677/1299 for 1,976. Final average, 2,539.


OVAs, Movies, Boxsets etc:
none

[something]

http://jbbs.livedoor.jp/bbs/read.cgi...1293278942/343

This covers the weeks starting 3/05, 3/12, 3/19, 3/26, and 4/02. Slight overlap with the previous Newtype list which ended the week of 3/05.

Haganai v3 +222 BDs, total 10,619.

Natsume Shi v2 +533 BDs, total 9,096.

AoEx v10 +550 BDs, total 8,782.

Guilty Crown v3 +209 BDs, total 8,728.

Hanasaku v9 +572 BDs, total 7,389, final average 8,576.

A Channel +smile OVA +752 BDs, total 5,705.

Strike Witches 2 BD Box +239 BDs, total 5,618.
18) ¥*207.4m (*6,172 * ¥33,600) - s-CRY-ed
19) ¥*206.5m (*5,618 * ¥36,750) - Strike Witches 2
20) ¥*200.1m (*3,197 * ¥62,580) - Kanon

Tamayura v4 +248 BDs, total 4,739.

PingDrum v6 +293 BDs, total 4,397.

Rinne v1 +510 BDs, total 3,999.

[Megiddo]

Well, looks like the database error has been fixed.

So, this may seem really pessimistic or may be too early to be posing this question, but doesn't the Spring season seem like a total financial bust? The shows that currently projected for more than 5k stalker points are:
Fate Zero 2nd half (not currently but it's given)
Haiyore! Nyarlko-san (definitely the surprise hit of the season)
Eureka Seven Ao
Accel World (barely)

And... that's it. 4 shows. Maybe Hyouka can get an increase in sales and I'm pretty sure the AKB anime is going to sell a ton, so lets put the current maximum at 6.

Compare that with the 12 shows last spring that sold over 5k units for the first volume. But to be honest, that's not even the most troubling thing. What's really troubling is that a lot of shows are only projected for 1-2k stalker points. Zombie 2, Saki Achiga-hen, Tasogare Otome, Zetman, Sankarea, Medaka Box, Acchi Kocchi, Upotte!, Hiiro no Kakera, Mysterious Girlfriend X, Shining Hearts, Kuroko no Basket and Sengoku Collection are all currently projected to do quite poorly (under 3k). That's a pretty long list.

So what do y'all think? Is this worrisome? Or is it far too early to even get a rough idea for how a title will do? I think back at cases like Pirates where it didn't skyrocket till episode 5, but I can only think that kind of jump as a somewhat rare occurrence. I'm pretty disappointed with Achiga's initial numbers so far. Hopefully as we get more crazy mahjong superpowers then it will get more pre-orders.

[Draneor]

Originally Posted by Megiddo

So, this may seem really pessimistic or may be too early to be posing this question, but doesn't the Spring season seem like a total financial bust?

Yes, it's entirely too early and pessimistic to write the season off as a bust. Honestly, I think some of you put way too much faith into stalker points. It's only the third/fourth week. Anything can happen.

[something]

Originally Posted by Megiddo

So, this may seem really pessimistic or may be too early to be posing this question, but doesn't the Spring season seem like a total financial bust?

To be honest, it's at least a month too early to draw conclusions. Don't look at Stalker estimates as a good indicator of final sales until at most two weeks before release. Just remember how Mouretsu or Inu x Boku SS were doing at this point in the Winter season. Hell, Natsume Yuujin-chou Shi wasn't very high at this point either. The projections you get within the individual item page are also not meant to be used this early on, because there's not enough data to get an accurate trend for the algorithm.

All we know is that so far this season there is, with the obvious exception of Fate's continuation and possibly Nyaruko-san, there's no clear top tier smash hit yet. But even 10k shows often do not make themselves a consistent place in the top 100 this early on.

So far there are a couple shows with a pretty consistent presence in the top 300, which is usually a pretty good sign at this point: Nyaruko, Eureka 7, Hyouka, Accel World, Jormungand. Those are looking the best right now. Saki is on-again off-again, and hopefully it moves at least 5k.

[Megiddo]

My post wasn't about smash hits though. It's about the lack of hits. Which of the shows currently projected for less than 3k do you see being hits? There are plenty to choose from. Fair enough though. I'll save the comment for when there is less than a month to go before release dates on most of the titles.

Draneor: I haven't seen any reason to not put some 'faith' into the stalker points. They have proven time and time again to be an excellent estimate for Oricon sales.

[something]

Originally Posted by Megiddo

My post wasn't about smash hits though. It's about the lack of hits.

That's what I mean: this early on, the only way you get an obvious stand-out in the rankings is if it's a smash hit. A more common regular 6-12k hit is usually not going to be obvious at this stage, because you don't have to rank very highly or accumulate a lot of points early to get there. Haganai for example looks like it's on track to be a clear 10k hit. But it ranked ~150-250 pretty consistently until about 10 days before release. In that sense, something like Nyaruko-san is already way ahead of it.