Anime Sales in Japan - 2013 (Released volumes)

[hpulley4]

2nd song on the earthmind Vividred Operation OP maxi single for ENERGY is called Naked; wonder if it has anything to do with the show or just coincidence with all the Naked Impact and Rang weapons. Don't see it or COMPASS listed as insert songs or anything.

Edit: not the best OP around actually. Not a likely buy. Preferred what earthmind did for Fate/stay night.

[symbv]

Originally Posted by Hououin91

Any reason for the sudden rise of all JOJO volumes?

Nothing except JoJo vol.1 is going on sale later this week. There is always a pulling effect for other volumes when the release date of a vol.1 comes close, but in the case of a popular series the effect can be very prominent. I think we are seeing this for JoJo (and the any special deal of "extra" for buying all volumes helps too) In fact, the other volumes of JoJo have been on the rise even before this week. It is just that it is more noticeable this week or so.

Granted, the latest episode, with the debut of RisaRisa, has indeed received widespread praise, but the hype is not substantially more or stronger than other earlier episodes.

+++++

On the sales performance front for this season's anime, the situation is turning from bad to worse as it seems my worry of a "barren season" is turning more into reality: Now we do not have any title with Final Prediction Point above 10k. The loss of momentum for the two best performing titles at the beginning of the season is astounding. ViviPan's position has been breaking new low and now hovers at around #90. Its Final Prediction Point also reduces from 11k to 8.3k now. MaoYuu's lackluster ep.4 means the title is now stuck in a much lower position compared with season start (at around #210) - its Final Prediction Point turns to 4.8k, below 5k. For other titles, they are mostly weakening (Minamike also got below 4k to 3.8k, Kagura is now 2.3k, OreShura drops to 1.1k) or barely holding its own (Tamakoma at 3.7k, Haganai barely above 5k). Of course as the season reaches turning point (like ep.5 in ViviPan) we may see change of momentum for the better, but the current situation is pretty discouraging.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by symbv

On the sales performance front for this season's anime, the situation is turning from bad to worse as it seems my worry of a "barren season" is turning more into reality: Now we do not have any title with Final Prediction Point above 10k. The loss of momentum for the two best performing titles at the beginning of the season is astounding.

Honestly, I've said this before, but I think there's really limited value in playing armchair commentators based on limited selected pre-order trends months before release. How many people are really pre-ordering anime at this point anyway? (And *why* would you pre-order right now? If you haven't already decided, you might as well wait until closer to release.) While rankings are interesting, we don't know the sample size. If the sample size is sufficiently small, rankings could fluctuate wildly and have little-to-no statistical significance.

I think Stalker Points are somewhat interesting, but prognosticating based on this limited data so far in advance is just... silly, sorry. There can be any number of factors that we have no clue about, and this is all loose extrapolation in the first place that doesn't really make sense until we get closer to the deadline (and even then can be fairly wildly off for so many reasons).

I would like to petition again for sales speculation to be separated from sales results, as I think actual data (and discussion of said data) is being drowned out by this sort of prognosticating.

[something]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

I would like to petition again for sales speculation to be separated from sales results, as I think actual data (and discussion of said data) is being drowned out by this sort of prognosticating.

I have the same answer I had last time: I tried rather hard to organize all the pure-data posts in this thread (also, this is where threaded mode shines) so you could get just that without ever having to read the speculation posts that frustrate you. Regarding weekly data: http://www.mania.com/aodvb/showthrea...49#post2010449

It'll be behind sometimes, because I don't remember to update with the new link right away each week, but the most recent week or two should be easy to find by skimming. (Plus you can basically ignore most posts not made on a Tuesday morning EST or a Thursday afternoon.)

I could reproduce all that stuff in a separate thread but it's challenging enough to ensure sure all the posts in one thread are up to date (when I have to go back and edit the Summer Vol. 1 list for the 25th time because SAO ranked yet again or update a weekly post from two months ago because I noticed a 101+ DVD list got posted on 2ch and I'm OCD about logging every single reported sale humanly possible or whatever), let alone remembering to do everything twice. I'm open for ways to surface the data posts better but this seems pretty clean even if you haven't stylish-ed the box out of its size constraints like I have, minus a couple limited replies that snuck into the table of contents there. A solution that doesn't require posting all the data in two places would be ideal.

Maybe we can split for 2014 but I feel like having to go to one thread to read a post and another to reply to it is really annoying and will really hamper participation in discussion (which I know not everyone would view as a negative), when the "useless speculation" is pretty much 85% of the fun. And if "discussions of the data" can occur alongside the data itself, you have to decide where the line gets drawn on what's adequately about the data and what is getting off course and where to cut off the conversations and... this kinda fails its cost-benefit analysis for me. If we were to split at all, the other thread would be data only, no discussion at all, otherwise it's just hard to manage. I think an internet forum is a less than ideal medium for this, but for various reasons (technical and otherwise) I don't see myself trying to move it elsewhere.

(With some basic Japanese, another option is stalking the jp threads I link in the sources, particularly this and this which will have the data, if sometimes a few hours later than I post it, at worst. They're data-only, not the 10,000-posts-a-day 2ch threads. You can even do RSS feeds.)

tl;dr I'm not yet convinced a change is needed, but I am open to discussion on ways to improve the sales threads so don't take this as a "NO CHANGES NEVER EVER" reply or anything.

[catclan]

Just a quick note, if I'm not mistaken volumes 1 & 2 of Maoyuu are coming with an application for an event ticket. At least according to: http://www.saiani.net/article/316743214.html

This season is going slow and most of the shows do seem to be on the lower end comparing it with Anime from other seasons. But I'm really grateful to see Love Live!, Kotoura-san and Chihayafuru (specially this one). I just wish these ones sold more. On the Vividred topic, I think I can understand why it's selling "so much" but unfortunately I don't think is a good series, not terrible or anything, just not good enough for me to secure an import. The pacing is weird and mostly I don't like how the Mahou Shoujo theme is being developed. On the positive side it has really nice visual to look and I like the character designs. Specially when they do their docking.

Somehow I think most of the producers knew next season was going to be brutal on the sales side, so they went with lower profile titles for this season. I was pretty surprised by how many short Anime where airing this season, either short on airing time or airing episodes. Most of this current season is in the range of 12-13 episodes. So far besides the mainstream Anime, it seems only Chihayafuru will still be airing after this season. We haven't got any episode run confirmation for Gijin-den Roman, MANGIRL!, Yama no Susume, VIVIDRED OPERATION or Hakkenden. But I'm pretty sure they won't go over 1 cour.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by something

Maybe we can split for 2014 but I feel like having to go to one thread to read a post and another to reply to it is really annoying, when the "useless speculation" is pretty much 85% of the fun. And if "discussions of the data" can occur alongside the data itself, you have to decide where the line gets drawn on what's about the data and is getting off course and where to cut off the conversations and... this fails its cost-benefit analysis for me.

I'm not too sure that I see the complication as much as you do. There is (a lot of) discussion in this thread that is based on actual sales figures, and some speculation that results from that. And then there is (also a lot of) discussion that is based on Stalker Points, trying to predict what sales will result based on selected pre-order trends. I'm not advocating a strict "data-only" thread, as I enjoy the discussions about the data (and of course I could just go get the data directly if that's all I cared about, which I don't). My preference would just be that anything related to Sales Data goes into one thread, and anything related to Stalker Points goes into another thread, because Stalker Points are not "Anime Sales in Japan". In some cases, there may be some overlap (as people who make Stalker Point-based predictions may want to compare with the actual sales results), but the almost-daily updates on the latest pre-orders and speculation on what that might mean for the seasonal final totals can just get so far into the weeds of speculation that it ceases to have significant meaning. It's divining rods trying to search for gold.

One of my reasons for preferring a split is because I perceive there is still a lot of confusion about what Stalker Points are, how they work, how they do or don't align with sales, and so on. Separating the two topics allows this distinction to be made more clear. If people want to see how things actually performed, there could be one thread to discuss that. If people want to see how things are trending and speculate about what might happen in the future (particularly about how shows in the current season will sell when they're finally released, which is usually the context), there could be another thread to discuss that. I won't deny that there is self-interest here (as I obviously find the increased emphasis on Stalker Points too "pseudoscience" for my tastes), but I also think it cleans up the discussion significantly.

Anyway, my two cents. Obviously, you have to decide if it makes sense to you (but given that you participate equally in both aspects, perhaps it's all the same to you). I'll leave it at that so as to not further pollute the thread.

[ultimatemegax]

Originally Posted by something

I could reproduce all that stuff in a separate thread but it's challenging enough to ensure sure all the posts in one thread are up to date (when I have to go back and edit the Summer Vol. 1 list for the 25th time because SAO ranked yet again or update a weekly post from two months ago because I noticed a 101+ DVD list got posted on 2ch and I'm OCD about logging every single reported sale humanly possible or whatever), let alone remembering to do everything twice. I'm open for ways to surface the data posts better but this seems pretty clean even if you haven't stylish-ed the box out of its size constraints like I have, minus a couple limited replies that snuck into the table of contents there. A solution that doesn't require posting all the data in two places would be ideal.

Maybe we can split for 2014 but I feel like having to go to one thread to read a post and another to reply to it is really annoying, when the "useless speculation" is pretty much 85% of the fun. And if "discussions of the data" can occur alongside the data itself, you have to decide where the line gets drawn on what's about the data and is getting off course and where to cut off the conversations and... this fails its cost-benefit analysis for me.

It wouldn't be hard to allow rules like "this show's first week's data is out, we can now talk about its sales in the data thread" or "this is how the light novel sales were boosted after the first episode" in a thread about Oricon/distributor numbers and allow "this show's BD/DVDs aren't out, but based on how it's ranking..." in the speculation thread. As soon as we get Oricon's data for a show that released in a certain week, discussion about it moves to the sales thread as we'll have actual numbers for it. You don't have to double-post anything as it could be a hard rule to move any discussion to the "data" thread.

I can go on and on about why I dislike the effect Stalker has had in the international community, but that's not a solution. I think relentless's idea of putting discussion of released shows in one thread (perhaps called "Anime sales") and discussion about speculation in another thread (perhaps "Sales speculation") is the best solution to prevent any overlap and allow those who want to speculate room to do so without any issues with people misinterpreting that as actual data (though Oricon does call it an estimate). It's fine to speculate (I do that with my labmates over experiments), but I strongly feel it should be separate from discussion on actual data.

[something]

Originally Posted by ultimatemegax

I can go on and on about why I dislike the effect Stalker has had in the international community, but that's not a solution.

There are a lot of people who don't really understand how it works for sure. But then plenty of people don't even know how to read a simple two-column sales chart ("*,946 3,456 Title v1 - omg why two numbers me confused!") or understand basic differences in business models from show to show, making Stalker misinterpretation one of the more minor problems. Still it's not just the international community - I follow the main 2ch sales thread when I can, and even I can tell with my inadequate Japanese knowledge that that a lot of the posts there are seriously clueless/jump to wild conclusions on minimal evidence. And trolling. Definitely trolling too. But I think it's ample servings of both (thankfully we don't get the trolling here). For the record, some leaps do happen here occasionally but I don't find anything that's been posted to be outrageously unreasonable either. I think symbv's latest take on the Winter season is a bit too alarmist, but I also know he's also someone who knows full well how the sales data works.

I think relentless's idea of putting discussion of released shows in one thread (perhaps called "Anime sales") and discussion about speculation in another thread (perhaps "Sales speculation") is the best solution to prevent any overlap and allow those who want to speculate room to do so without any issues with people misinterpreting that as actual data (though Oricon does call it an estimate). It's fine to speculate (I do that with my labmates over experiments), but I strongly feel it should be separate from discussion on actual data.

I think the requested distinction is a clearer for me now than it was the last time this issue was brought up, when it felt like what was wanted was nearly data-only, with minimal discussion. It seems like for this year the simplest solution is for the separate thread to be created now for speculation on preorders, and this one will just be left as-is so there's no post moving to do. As for comparisons between Stalker predictions and actual released sales, I guess that would go in the sales thread. I think there will still be a gray area but that can't really be helped.

[something]

Separate thread is now up here. An explanation is in the top post. I think that's what you were asking for, but let me know if not.

[symbv]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

Honestly, I've said this before, but I think there's really limited value in playing armchair commentators based on limited selected pre-order trends months before release. How many people are really pre-ordering anime at this point anyway? (And *why* would you pre-order right now? If you haven't already decided, you might as well wait until closer to release.)

If you look at the history of Amazon Stalker, it indeed provides some insight for the sales momentum. Otherwise, why would Amazon ranking jumps (or not jumps) after an episode airs?? Limited value, perhaps, but not totally worthless. And if you do not want to discuss the sales performance and popularity of a title, shall we only come to this forum once a week just to discuss the actual sales? I find it pretty senseless given the original purpose of Amazon Stalker is to monitor the ongoing performance of titles not released yet.

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

While rankings are interesting, we don't know the sample size. If the sample size is sufficiently small, rankings could fluctuate wildly and have little-to-no statistical significance.
I think Stalker Points are somewhat interesting, but prognosticating based on this limited data so far in advance is just... silly, sorry.

If the Amazon Stalker has not done such a good job in reflecting the final sales of a title, perhaps your argument may be more convincing. Perhaps you are right in the past, but now given the sophistication of the Stalker, I would say that NOT talking about the Stalker in a sales thread is not reasonable (and silly, sorry). The Sales Thread in 2ch is centered around the Stalker and despite a lot of noises (mainly discussion or hype/rant about titles being shown or anime news) it serves the anime community well by discussing sales performance of currently airing titles. I believe a Sales forum in an English speaking media can serve similar purpose.

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

I would like to petition again for sales speculation to be separated from sales results, as I think actual data (and discussion of said data) is being drowned out by this sort of prognosticating.

I don't know this forum is only for Sales RESULTS. It is just "Anime Sales in Japan -2013". In 2ch Sales Thread the results and sales prediction talks are mixed together, and in my opinion for the better. If you just need the results, perhaps you are looking for a newsletter not a forum where interactions are the main thing.

Personally I see no reason why Sales discussion has to be limited to titles that are already out. A strong fondness of discussion of actual sales but strong dislike of discussion of forthcoming sales? If I am a person dealing with anime sales, be it production, marketing, retailers, or just interested consumers, I would like to talk about both titles released and not released, and very likely to be in a single sitting. And this is what people in 2ch Sales Thread, or people here like Something and I do here and in MAL - talk about sales for all anime titles, released or not. On the other hand, what I see is just a purist view of what kind of sales discussion is meaningful: Cannot stand reading about sales discussion of titles not yet released, so try to bar people from talking such in the thread he reads. Leave the burden to others, so that you can have an easy and happier time reading your favorite thread, as unreasonable (and not practiced in any other forum) as it may be.