Sequels

[Orochimaru]

I was wondering if the following series are likely to get sequels. I realize no one knows for sure and you can't give a definite answer, but I'd like to hear whether people think it's likely.

Kenichi

Kekkaishi

Umineko no Naku Koro ni- This thing really needs a sequel but it's been a while...

Deadman Wonderland- I think I know the answer here but just in case...

Haruhi- It seems like this one definitely would, but again it's been a while since the "second season" (which I still have yet to watch...) so who knows...

Spice and Wolf

[EmperorBrandon]

Originally Posted by Orochimaru

Haruhi- It seems like this one definitely would, but again it's been a while since the "second season" (which I still have yet to watch...) so who knows...

Well, it was three years between the first and "second" (technically a renewal of the first). I would think, as successful as the series continues to be, that it's only a matter of time.

[Fencedude]

Originally Posted by Orochimaru

Kenichi
Kekkaishi

Not sure what these are. So probably not.

Umineko no Naku Koro ni- This thing really needs a sequel but it's been a while...

No.

Deadman Wonderland- I think I know the answer here but just in case...

Haha. No.

Haruhi- It seems like this one definitely would, but again it's been a while since the "second season" (which I still have yet to watch...) so who knows...

Absolutely guaranteed. It only had essentially the most successful non-Ghibli anime movie...ever.

Spice and Wolf

Maybe.

[HitokiriShadow]

Originally Posted by Orochimaru

Umineko no Naku Koro ni- This thing really needs a sequel but it's been a while...

Not going to happen. I don't remember the sales numbers, but I believe they were rather bad.

Haruhi- It seems like this one definitely would, but again it's been a while since the "second season" (which I still have yet to watch...) so who knows...

It's just a matter of time. It sold very well. There were three years between the first season and the re-airing with the new episodes and its only been about two years since that.

Spice and Wolf

I don't remember the sales for the second season, but I would have thought we would have gotten a sequel by now if it was profitable to do so. But then I look at how long it went between seasons for shows like Shana, Haruhi, and Bakemonogatari. Sometimes it just takes a while.

[Orochimaru]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

Not sure what these are. So probably not.

They're both 4-cour shounen anime with ongoing manga and (as far as I can tell) no forced anime-only conclusion, so I thought they had a decent chance.

...Not that that helps you answer the question if you've never heard of them, just saying.

Absolutely guaranteed. It only had essentially the most successful non-Ghibli anime movie...ever.

Oh right, I totally forgot about the movie.

But this brings me to another question. Why is it that very popular series sometimes are only one cour, or wait a long time to have sequels? I think Haruhi is the best example of this... it's extremely successful and after all these years there must be plenty of source material to animate, but they've only given us 28 episodes, and from what I understand, eight of them were the same thing. Compare this to Toaru Majutsu no Index, or even K-on if Index is just a weird exception, and it makes me wonder why Haruhi (and Bakemonogatari, which I think is even more successful than K-on or Haruhi, right?) is so slow...

[Fencedude]

Originally Posted by Orochimaru

But this brings me to another question. Why is it that very popular series sometimes are only one cour, or wait a long time to have sequels? I think Haruhi is the best example of this... it's extremely successful and after all these years there must be plenty of source material to animate, but they've only given us 28 episodes, and from what I understand, eight of them were the same thing. Compare this to Toaru Majutsu no Index, or even K-on if Index is just a weird exception, and it makes me wonder why Haruhi (and Bakemonogatari, which I think is even more successful than K-on or Haruhi, right?) is so slow...

Part of the problem with Haruhi is the massive delays for the most recent volumes of the novels, which only just finally came out this year, the first new ones since the original anime aired.

And for all that, between the 28 TV episodes and the Shoushitsu movie, they've covered basically five volumes worth of material, just under half of what has been written.

[Orochimaru]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

Part of the problem with Haruhi is the massive delays for the most recent volumes of the novels, which only just finally came out this year, the first new ones since the original anime aired.

And for all that, between the 28 TV episodes and the Shoushitsu movie, they've covered basically five volumes worth of material, just under half of what has been written.

I just looked at the list of novels... well that certainly is a massive delay. I didn't realize that. Still, it seems like they would have enough left in 4 novels for another season, if 5 volumes yielded 28 eps + 1 movie.

[DiGiKerot]

Originally Posted by Orochimaru

But this brings me to another question. Why is it that very popular series sometimes are only one cour, or wait a long time to have sequels? I think Haruhi is the best example of this... it's extremely successful and after all these years there must be plenty of source material to animate, but they've only given us 28 episodes, and from what I understand, eight of them were the same thing. Compare this to Toaru Majutsu no Index, or even K-on if Index is just a weird exception, and it makes me wonder why Haruhi (and Bakemonogatari, which I think is even more successful than K-on or Haruhi, right?) is so slow...

Whilst it's the end product for most of us outside Japan, the release of an actual anime isn't always the aim of those investing in the show. One of the larger investors in anime production tends to be the company who releases the original works, and in their case, their primary motivator tends to be to increase the awareness of the original work as much as anything else. The money made through the boost in interest and sales of the original work is often more important than the sales of the anime itself.

Whilst things like Haruhi and Bakemonogatari certainly made plenty of money on their media sales (and the Haruhi anime is published by the same company as the novels anyway, if memory serves), if there aren't new novels to promote, then the motivation for making another anime series is significantly lessened.

Obviously there's studio throughput as well. Although they've been quiet these last couple of seasons, Shaft is always busy (though in this case, it is them making more *monogatari), and KyoAni don't tend to produce in parallel (well, they might, but it's rarely two TV shows).

[something]

Originally Posted by HitokiriShadow

Not going to happen. I don't remember the sales numbers, but I believe they were rather bad.

1,364 average ad that's a bit generous, as only 8 of the 26 releases (13 vols, BD and DVD) made Oricon and another 3 are only known through Anime Power Rankings and >100 DVD list estimates. Basically it sold nothing.

Haruhi is guaranteed, but they've got little incentive to rush. As the record-breaking sales of Surprise showed, fans will be there, almost no matter how long the wait.

Originally Posted by HitokiriShadow

I don't remember the sales for the second season, but I would have thought we would have gotten a sequel by now if it was profitable to do so. But then I look at how long it went between seasons for shows like Shana, Haruhi, and Bakemonogatari. Sometimes it just takes a while.

5,096 average. Season one was 8,728 with a respectable 3,322 for its BD box. And as far as I know, they've only covered, what, 4 of 17 novels? You'd think there would have been more by now, and god damn I would kill for it, but I've mostly given up hope. The novels ended as of this July, so there's probably minimal gain to be had by financing another [strike]commercial[/strike] anime adaptation since there aren't new volumes to increase sales for. A show that goes from 8.7k to 5.1k could be a 3-4k in a third season, and then you've probably not justified the cost and effort.

[something]

Originally Posted by Fencedude

Absolutely guaranteed. It only had essentially the most successful non-Ghibli anime movie...ever.

Well, one of the best selling for a late-night otaku franchise at 135k, with Kadokawa claiming lifetime sales of 200k, although in terms of fairness you kind of have to use the Oricon number. It's easily beaten by, (not counting Ghibli of course) Evangelion, Advent Children, One Piece Strong World or Summer Wars, is below some recent mech like Gundam 00 and presumably Macross even if the latter had no game bundle, and did slightly less than Gintama Benizakura-hen and the initial releases of GitS Innocence. All that said, it's definitely a "non-Ghibli Top 15" anime movie of the last 15 years.