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Box Office Report: Hogs rolls in the money.

Disney’s Wild Hogs overtook the other biker this weekend and continued down that open road to box office success. The comedy shot into first with a very nice 38.0 mil opening debut. Wild Hogs (starring John Travolta, William H. Macy, Tim Allen & Martin Lawrence) is a comedy about four friends getting together and re-imagining their “freedom”. They get together on their bikes and explore the open highways of the good ole USA and find a little bit about themselves in the process. Along that journey… These friends of course run into real biker gangs, get into embarrassing situations & a pesky highway patrolman (portrayed by the hilarious John C. McGinley from Scrubs). 

I’ll give you the reasons why Wild Hogs beat out Ghost Rider and every other movie this weekend.  

1. It’s a comedy, i.e. a film for all ages (all demographics).
2. It’s 1 hour and 39 minutes long. (more showings per day)
3. It’s on 3,287 screens. (options everywhere for audiences)
4. Ghost Rider has been out for 3 weekends( its going to fade now)

Those four reasons alone point out why Wild Hogs was a sure bet this weekend and the person placing the bets is now cashing in. There you have it, Maniacs.  

Coming in 2^nd place this weekend is Paramount’s Zodiac pulling in 13.1 mil. The thriller about the San Francisco killer (starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Robert Downey Jr) opened right behind Wild Hogs because of good critical praise and favorable audience reactions. Not to mention it’s also Rated-R so it appeals to those serious movie goers who opted out of seeing the comedy above. Zodiac opened up in 2,362 screens across the nation.  

Stalling back in 3^rd place for the weekend is Ghost Rider with 11.5 mil. It was inevitable that the drop would be happening soon and it looks like its third weekend is where we see the downward spiral. As normal if you include Daredevil into the equation, his latest film about the soul cursed biker has made its money back from production value and will probably end up around 200 mil worldwide when it’s all said and done. In other words, it’s more than enough money to not be considered a failure but it’s also not enough to automatically start sequel discussions. Right now, Ghost Rider (production value of 110 mil) is at 94.7 mil domestically and 40.1 mil foreign. That brings the worldwide total to 134.9 mil.  

Right behind the fading biker in 4^th place is the other Disney fantasy Bridge to Terabithia with an 8.5 mil draw. There’s no reason to question why it’s here. It appeals to the widest audience, has the lowest running time & is a fantasy so we know why it would be high up the chart. It’s also still in 3,159 screens even if it has been out for 17 days. It’s at 61.2 mil worldwide if you include the 3.3 mil it’s made overseas thus far. 

Jim Carrey’s thriller Number 23 dropped 51% in its second weekend out in 5^th place. While pulling in 7.0 mil in 2,759 screens, its fadeout from the top 5 goes into the fact that it’s a Rated R film against so much wider released comedies, fantasies and new releases this weekend and next. It’s probably going to be in the top 10 chart for another two weeks but it won’t pull in more then 7 mil for the next two weekends. Still, that’s going to get it over its budget production cost of 30 mil. It’s pulled in 24.6 mil domestically so far. 

Norbit is etching closer to the 100 mil mark this weekend, landing in 6^th place. The Eddie Murphy comedy pulled in another 6.4 mil on 2,827 screens. Like Number 23, it’s going to be in the chart for another week or so but don’t expect it to rake in the money from this point forward. It’s already over its production value of 60 mil at any rate.  

The Warner Bros feature Music and Lyrics has 7^th place this weekend. It only dropped one spot in the weekend chart so it’s staying steady right now and that’s because it’s the only romantic comedy out there right now. It appeals to a certain demographic when there are no alternatives. It made another 4.8 mil this weekend even with the very lousy $1,851 per screen average. Its total domestic take is at 38.6 mil.  

Okay. Last week, we had The Astronaut Farmer open in 8^th place with one of the lowest and most dismal debut weekends this year. Farmer isn’t even ranked this weekend. Its average per screen was horrifying even if it was on 2,155 screens. This week, our 8^th place spot goes to another debut Black Snake Moan. It pulled in a measly 4.0 mil in its first weekend numbers but it has more of an excuse than Farmer does. It was only in 1,252 screens. Plus, there is no doubt that Black Snake Moan’s budget is smaller then Farmers was. This was definitely a bad two weeks for Warner Bros. Farmer & Paramount Vantage’s Black Snake Moan. 

Reno 911!: Miami & Breach finish this weekend’s box office chart in our 9^th and 10^th spots this weekend with numbers nothing worth shouting for. Reno had one of the lowest averages per screen (even worse then Farmer’s debut weekend numbers) at $1,387 per screen but it has still made its 10 mil production value back with a total domestic pull of 16.4 mil in two weeks. Breach finishes last with a 3.4 mil pull while still in only 1,498 screens.  
 

This week’s talking points:   300 
 

I’ve had a poll up the past few weeks at our General Movie Forum. 

Poll: How Successful will 300 become? 

Poll Options: 

• Break 100 million & higher
• Won’t break 100 million
• Highly praised by critics & audiences
• Negative reviews by critics
• Other prediction. List it.

Apparently, the question as to what it does in box office receipts is damn well split up in two groups. 

10 people have said it will break 100 mil and higher. 

9 people have said it won’t break 100 mil.

9 people agree it will be highly praised by critics and audiences.

3 people think it will get negative reviews from critics. 

When talking about Frank Miller’s 300, the first thought that comes to most Maniacs’ minds is of course Miller’s Sin City. The reason this compels people to remember the Rodriguez film is because of the similarities.  

Sin City opened in 3,230 screens and was highly anticipated from the excitement gained on the internet. Net Fan-boys were literally salivating for this film from all the online chatter. It had an ensemble cast with a bunch of A-List talent, an R rating (think lots of gore and sexual exploitation), and the artistic style of adapting Miller’s comic book to the big screen was something considered new and invigorating.  

One small detail. It comes out on April 1, 2005.  

Another middle-sized detail. It’s targeted towards a certain core demographic.  

Another large detail. It’s Rated R.  

You may ask: “What does this have to do with the price of beans in Peru?” 

The simple answer is these factors all come into play with the success of box office receipts. The reason studios target a lot of their films towards the PG-13 audience is because it gives them the highest rate of scoring profit success. It scores the kid demographic, the 18-49 demographic and it doesn’t scare away the “Golden Years” demographic.  

With the extreme violence and sex in Miller’s earlier film, audiences found themselves split down the middle as to whether they liked it or it wasn’t for them. A lot of movie goers found the film too violent. A lot of women didn’t like the sexual exploitation. I’m not saying that’s right or wrong here, folks. I’m just saying there was criticism from the audiences whom never opened up Miller’s comic book. They didn’t know what to expect in this highly advertised film and when they did see it, there wasn’t what you call an overwhelming rating from everyone one way or other, positive or negative. 

Sin City ended up opening in 3,230 screens bringing in 29.1 mil on its debut weekend. Domestically, it grossed 74.1 mil while also grossing another 84.6 mil overseas. Basically, its worldwide total was 158.7 mil with a production budget of only 40.0 mil. Yes, it made its money back and more but it never did break that 100.0 mil mark here in USA.  

There was a disconnect between demographics based on age gaps of the audience and between the average Joe Movie Schmoe and the Internet Movie Schmoe.  

All of these factors spring to the analytical mind when discussing next week’s 300.  
 

Here’s my view of the 300 situation.  

Miller’s latest film will most likely break 100 million watermark in box office receipts but it will it will get there by just a hair on Kevin Smith’s chin. I’ve been holding back on my decision based on the fact that we don’t know how many theater screens it’s going to debut on. 

Apparently, that question is answered….vaguely. 

2,900+ screens. 

The reason the screens is an important factor is because with more screens, there are less options for Joe Moviegoer. The film with a large screen debut will have the most options of showings per day. 

There’s a reason movies like Ghost Rider debut open up on 3,600 screens. It pretty much guarantees success for the studio, even with competition. The film’s made 94.7 mil domestically and another 40.1 mil overseas. This translates to it already surpassed its budget of 110 mil. This means it’s going to make some profit for Sony in the next weeks when it starts to be pushed gradually out of its screens. Most movies make money slow sporadic amounts of change after the first 2 or 3 weeks and end their theater run after 30-45 days. By the end of its theater release, Rider will have that 100 mil mark domestically. Barely. This is all due to Sony being smart with its tracking and competition analysis and pushing just the right amount of screens on it. 

300 comes into the same situation for Warner Bros, albeit with handicaps. It’s a periodic piece with a Rated R rating. The audience will have to be 18-49 demographic and beyond so it’s automatically on a first handicap in comparisons to Rider. It’s also on fewer screens unless the current total of prints is inaccurate and Warner gives theaters more prints in the next few days. So that’s two handicaps. 

So why do I think it will barely reach 100 mil by the end of its theater run? 

Competition.  

The last few box office winners have had its debut weekend shared with 3-4 other new openers. In fact, there have been 3-4 new films each week for a good month now and each time this happens, the films debuting takes money off of each other in box office success. 

300 is opening next week with only one other film in competition. 

The Ultimate Gift is opening in 800 screens alongside Miller’s adaptation. That’s barely considered a wide release. There’s no doubt that 300 will beat this film and win next week’s Box Office Report. 

So Maniacs, this gives 300 a weekend to itself.  

What comes out the week after (the film’s second weekend)? 

• Dead Silence
• I Think I Love My Wife
• Premonition

It’s pretty clear that 300 has these films beat as far as advertising, marketing, and general knowledge from the movie going public. Dead Silence is probably the most advertised of these three films but that’s on the internet and on genre TV show ad spots. It’s also about killer dolls. When comparing that with a periodic piece set in 480 B.C. at the Battle of Thermopylae, it’s clear where the demographic audiences are going to watch first. 

This is my leading beliefs to Miller’s film reaching that 100 mil mark. The fact that it has little to nothing going against it for a good 14-16 days in release contributes to it barely touching the 9 figure mark here domestically by the end of its theater release. It’s most likely going to be in theaters by the end of April before those screens get dedicated to early summer releases. It has a budget of 60 mil so I think we can all agree it’s going to hit that spot on. Warner Bros would have made the box office analysis easier by putting it in 3,500+ screens but of course, that would have been too easy. 

Enough of my thoughts on the future of this film, let’s hear your predictions! 
 
 

                                                                   Mania Feedback on 300: 
 

Deacon: “Don't see it breaking $100 million - unless word of mouth really catches on. More likely it'll end up like "Sin City" and "Constantine" - $20 to $30 mil opening weekend, $70 to $80 million total. Good reviews'll help, but this doesn't have any major names in the cast, so I don't know that the concept (and admittedly cool trailer) will be enough to fire up the grosses.” 

Ponyboy76: “I think it will do around 85 to 100 million. Most of the criticism I have read was that its visually stunning but has no character depth. Frankly, I'm not going to see this for any deep characterization. Anyone who has read and Sin City book or 300 knows that these books tell more of a story visually, especially 300. I'm totally looking forward to seeing some really awesome visual effects, fights scenes and straight talking but non compromising dialogue. 300 will make big bank.” 

Trazalca: “This movie started making noise several months ago, with development 
that seemed almost totally outside the general moviemaking rumor-mill radar. 
It's style and force continue to compel. So far, I've seen two completely different 
trailers for 300, and after the second one, I was convinced enough that I absolutely 
HAD to see it. If it doesn't break the 100 Mil. barrier, it won't hurt my feelings.  
But for me, it just looks too good to pass up.” 

Captain Insano: “sadly I think 300 will be as well accepted by the mainstream fans as Sin City...which was not good. Sure the hard core "nerds" like me enjoyed it, but Joe and Sue Smith did not give it a chance.”  

Greendragon: “I'm completely stoked for this movie. I've already purchased my tickets! However, I'm afraid Captain Insano may be right about this flick indulging more to fans of Sin City.” 

Sweetpea: “I don't think it'll break $100 million, at least not domestically, but I think it should do pretty well. I think it'll at least win the box office the weekend it comes out, and maybe the following one. I plan to see it, and so do a fair amount of my friends.” 

Gentlemen Death: “This is going to be a movie i will go see the day it comes out. Since i dont have a fancy HD DVD or TV or anything cool like that, i will go see it in theatres. I enjoy going to see a action flick or horror movie in theatre. I love kicking back on those seats and watching the upcoming previews.  
 
To me if i had a HD DVD or TV i would probably wait to watch this and alot of other movies untill they come out on DVD. It just wouldnt feel right if i didnt see this in theater. KInda like Sin City or even Titanic, to me those were movies you HAD to see in theaters to appreciate. 
 
As for it being a succes, i dont think it would gross over $100mil but hey u never know.” 

Kaeos: “I think it will do "well" but I doubt it will break 100 million. 
 
Personally, based soley on the previews I've seen, I'll likely Netflix it.” 

Rappites: “I agree it won't break 100 mil. I will also netflix it or buy it on dvd when it comes out.” 

Strider: “I think it will break $100 million, but only by a small amount. Perhaps it will make somewhere around $120 million.” 

DaForce: “Okay, saw a 5 minute clip for this (the infamous cliff scene) and I've gotta say, this movie is going to effing ROCK!  
 
Zack, Gerald and Lena were all at WonderCon, and it was by far the best panel of the day. Gerald was cracking jokes the entire time (the best one being how the beard makes him look like he's blowing a squirrel), Lena got hit on by a woman asking a question, and Zack had to explain to some nimrod that this wasn't an allegory to the Iraq invasion.  
 
I get to see this on Tues. (yes, a few days before opening) and I'll post my review up afterwards. 
 
From what little I've seen, I have to agree with Gerald, it's as much an art piece as it is a movie. Very effiing cool. 
 
 
Oh yeah, and it's bloody too. ;)” 
 
 

                             That does it for this weekend’s Box Office Report Maniac Feedback.  

Next weekend’s releases:

March 9, 2007: 

Wide Releases 

• 300 (2,900+ screens)
• The Ultimate Gift (800 screens)

Limited Releases  

• Believe in Me
• Beyond the Gates
• Exterminating Angels
• The Host
• Maxed Out
• The Namesake