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Shia LaBeouf in D.J Caruso's DISTURBIA(2007).
© Paramount/Dreamworks

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Disturbia wins but not by much

Did you think Disturbia winning 1^st place last week with only 13 mil in receipts was something hardly worth talking about? Well, it’s worse this week. The winner, Disturbia, doesn’t even in pull in 10 mil. Yep, you heard me. In a box office report which cements the idea that the average moviegoer is now saving their money for the summer season (or other things), the winning box office $ total this week is… 

Disturbia takes the 1^st place for the third weekend in a row with a 9.1 mil take over the last 3 days. Normally, it’s unimaginable for me to be discussing a film which averaged only 2,986 per screen this high up in the box office report but alas, this week, I am. The thriller’s total domestic take is at 52.1 mil in 3 weeks and its budget is listed at 20 mil so Spielberg, Shia and director Caruso obviously have themselves another success story here.  

Next up in 2^nd place is The Invisible. In its debut weekend, the Disney PG-13 Horror/Thriller pulled in 7.6 mil averaging around $3,700 per screen. Obviously, this film is under different circumstances then the last time a PG-13 Horror film hit the screens. The Messengers, the last teen targeted horror, did relatively well because it released on a weekend centering around that demographic when most adults 18-49 was setting up their Super Bowl activities. The Messengers did well. Unfortunately, this PG-13 horror film has a lot more going against it. Perhaps, it will stay in the top 4-5 spots for a few weeks and pick up speed but I doubt it.  

Nic Cage’s sci-fi thriller Next is landing in 3^rd place for its debut. The film which has garnered some decent advertising the past few weeks took in a paltry 7.2 mil in its first few days of release. Next had an average of $2,642.  

The Anthony Hopkins thriller Fracture (anyone catching onto the fact that the top 4 spots are all thrillers?) hits 4^th place this weekend in its second week of release. The New Line film pulled in another 7.0 mil bringing its total domestic take to 21.3 mil.  

As I said last week, Blades of Glory would be enjoying its final week of Gold, Silver, or Bronze. The sports comedy confirmed that and dropped from 3^rd place (last week) to 5^th place this week. While being pulled out of 403 screens over the last week, Will’s latest movie pulled in another measly 5.2 mil this weekend bringing its total domestic value to 108.0 mil. It’s taken in another 8 mil overseas as well. The budget for Ferrell & Heder’s comedy is listed at 61 mil. 

The Disney family film, Meet the Robinsons, follows behind Blades in 6^th place over the last 3 days pulling in just 4.8 mil. In its 5 weeks of release, it’s gathered up 88.3 mil domestically.  

Hot Fuzz lands in 7^th place with a 4.7 mil total. What really ticks me off about this is the fact that Rogue seems to be dropping the ball in managing this film. Look at all the other averages this week, reader. Now look at Hot Fuzz’s $3,757 per screen? Another issue coming into play here is the fact that we were made fools the last week. We were told it would be increasing into at least 1,000 more screens. I’m looking at the screen count right at this moment and it seems to me that it was only expanded into 447 more screens. Why is this being mishandled? Why does Rogue think it wise to expand a film which has garnered incredible reviews and anticipation into such a low amount of screens? Spider-Man 3 is coming out next week in 4,000 screens. It’s going to own the box office report for the next two weeks. The least Rogue and New Line could have done here is guarantee that Fuzz owned the box office report the last few weeks and got some of that financial pie before the competition flooded the market. We have 5 movies this week which averaged under $2,000 per screen. Hot Fuzz averaged nearly $4,000 per screen. Anyone with any miniscule amount of mathematical foresight would know Fuzz would have owned theater box office tracking if it was released in 2,500-3,500 screens as it should have been. As it stands now, it’s made only 12.4 mil in its two weeks of release. Shame on you, Rogue.  

8^th, 9^th, & 10^th places are hardly worth talking about. Vacancy lands in 8^th place with 4.2 mil in its second week of release. The Condemned shoot em’ up action film failed with a 4.0 mil take, getting 9^th place in its debut weekend. Are We Done Yet has done relatively well but it’s now ready to slide off the charts. The family comedy sequel by Ice Cube took in 3.4 mil in 10^th place bringing its total domestic take to 43.8 mil. The only other debut this weekend, Kennedy’s Kicking It Old Skool didn’t even rank this week, instead landing in 11^th place with a 2.8 mil receipt total. 
 
 

Last week, I posed this question your way: 

Which movie does better in box office receipts, Spider-Man 3 or Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End?  

It seems that a majority of people are of the mindset that Spider-Man 3 will be winning out of the two films and judging by all the exposure lately for the next Spidey film, I’d say your guesses are probably reasonably predicted. 

Personally, I’m going to choose the other choice though. When thinking about figures and chances of higher success, I’m thinking Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End has a better shot of getting more box office cash this summer season even with the 2 hr 50 minute running time. The reasoning behind it making more money is strictly circumstances around the date of release. 

Spider-Man 3 will be coming out next week on May 4, 2007. It’s pretty much guaranteed that will make a killing at the box office due to it getting released in so many screens and of course, it’s an event in the making. New York is having “Spider-Man Week” and the film will opening up in quite a bit of nations this next few days ahead of its release here. 4,000 screens in fact. That’s a whopper of a release slate for any movie. 4,000 screens and massive anticipation guarantees I’m talking about Spider-Man next week and most likely the week after next. As most know, usually films tend to be released here in the States first then they open overseas weeks (sometimes months) later. Not with Spider-Man though. Sony’s conquering the world market all in one spidey tangled web release.  

So why do I still believe Pirates will make more money? 

Date of release.  

Sure, Spider-Man has a head start on all the other summer releases but school is still in session in the first few weeks of May. This means a lot of the targeted teenage audience is still finishing up their years in class during the week. Pirates, on the other-hand, will be releasing in theaters everywhere when school is officially closing shop for the year in most parts of the country. Pirates will probably make a ton on that opening Memorial Day weekend but it’s the week after which will contribute to it beating our crime fighting Spidey hero. School will be out during the second week of Pirates release and these first few weeks of “official summer” are when movies start making the big money. They eat up those daily box office figures Monday-Friday as opposed to just relying on the 3-5 day weekend figures. Instead of making 1-2 million on the individual weekdays, they start nabbing 5-10 million per day in some cases. It’s this kind of release date timing which, in my eyes, makes Pirates the box office winner over Spider-Man 3. 

I noticed a decent discussion beginning on box office trends as to relating to that franchises previous film’s success. Since a lot of films this summer are sequels, I’ll put up the box office figures for their previous installments for you maniacs to read and judge for yourself. 

Franchise Numbers: 
 

All of the films above have sequels coming this summer. As you can see, some of these franchises are staggering in their box office totals. The Harry Potter franchise totals are amazing indeed.  Although previous box office numbers sometimes amount to nothing for predicting the future, you can see some trends of each perspective franchise. You can also see the limitations that Rated R franchises put on their box office totals. 

We shall see what this summer contributes to the above stats and as it wraps up, I’ll add those movies and their totals into the above chart so we can discuss what’s happened. 
 

Maniac Feedback:  Let’s Hear Your Thoughts on Who Wins: Spider-Man vs. Pirates 
 

Snallygaster: “As to the question of the week, Spidey 3 vs. Pirates 3 - that's a really tough call. Spidey has the advantage of being the first big event movie of the season while Pirates has the advantage of opening Memorial Day weekend. I'm rather surprised that neither one is opening on a Wednesday to take advantage of an extended opening weekend. I'm just going to go with a coin-toss type of guess and say Spidey will edge out Pirates - but it will be very close. I think their final gross domestic box office will be within 3% of each other. 

I think Transformers will do well, just not as spectacularly well as the fanboys think. I believe it will come in fifth place for the year, after Spidey, Pirates, Shrek, and Potter - which would still make it the top non-sequel of the year. It will also benefit greatly by opening on July 4th, which falls on a Wednesday, giving it a five-day opening weekend to rake in the dough.  
 
Fantastic Four should do well too. It's being released in mid-June which gives it enough space to avoid the May stampede, and before the July releases of Transformers and Potter. The direct competition for FF in June is a bit lighter than May or July. Plus, the marketing of the movie featuring the Silver Surfer is well-done - I think even viewers (like myself) who were underwhelmed by the first movie will turn out for the second. I expect it to place somewhere in the lower half of the top ten for the year.” 

SinisterPryde: “I saw Hot Fuzz (had to drive downtown and I hate downtown), it was worth the trip, however. I also saw Vacancy (funny, no one else is going, but this is the first weekend in like almost a year I had time to go see two movies). 
 
I think Harry Potter is going to be the strongest out of that that three mentioned above. Die Hards are good, but the last one was, what, 12 years ago? Transformers I kind of expect to be something of a disappointment for its studio. There's a lot of fan boy support and there is the nostalgia factor, but Harry Potter is going to have the bigger audience I think. 
 
As to the last question, I think Spider-Man 3 is going to have the bigger showing. Its going to have more a family friendly tone and I think Pirates 2 may have turned some people off. Still, you never know.” 

Kempmike: “Spiderman 3 will make more money I think as Spiderman 2 was better than Pirates 2 and I think that will encourage more people to go see that. I think Fantastic 4 and Transformers will perform poorly. Transformers' base is now gorwn up and a good proportion of them won't go. The first Fantastic 4 film only really did well because there wasn't much competition and I think it will struggle due to the increased competition this year.” 

Wessmith1966: “Great column as always. I think Pirates will pull in more money than Spidey when all is said and done, because I think the Pirates franchise plays to a bit wider audience. I think SM3 will pull in about $395 million and PotC3 will rake in in the neighbrhood of $445 million when the final tallying is done. 
 
I think it's idiotic to bunch up all of the "big" summer movies, but it won't affect me seeing any of them. I may have to see one during the week or on the second weekend of its release instead of opening weekend, but I'll still see them all. I think what we'll see is movies staying in the theaters longer this summer because they'll have steady, sustaining numbers instead of a huge bow followed by big drops. And, if Al Gore's right about how hot this summer's going to be, people will be flocking to movie theaters not only to escape reality for two hours, but to cool off. That would make for a good marketing push for local theaters. lol 
 
Halloween should be released in late October, but I can understand the studio wanting to get a share of the summer box office dollars (just like when studios release big budget Christmas-themed movies in the summer). Maybe the Halloween DVD will be released in time for Halloween.” 
 
I didn't get to the theater this weekend at all, because there wasn't anything new I wanted to see. Could we all stay away from "Kickin' It Old School" this weekend so we don't have to see any more Jamie Kennedy movies or commercials for those movies?” 

Jppintar326: “Spiderman 3 has the advantage of going first in this box office race. I am not a Pirates of the Caribbean fan because I think the films are long and Johnny Depp's character is more silly than funny. I think At World's End will be a disappointment because I think the series peaked with the last one. I'm not sure if Shrek the Third will be as big as the others. I thought Shrek was one of the best animated films ever but Shrek 2 was just more of the same.  
 
It's easy to tell what will be the biggest hits of the summer. The difficult part is what will the biggest flops. Will it be Live Free or Die Hard? Rush Hour 3? Who knows? One of these movies is bound to be a disappointment.” 

Captmathman: “SM3 will edge out PotC, because SM3 will draw to more families. The supporting cast is slightly better, methinks. But I agree that this could go either way.” 

Merin: “I want Spider-Man 3 to do better. 
 
I think Pirates 3 will do better. 
 
Spider-Man 2, despite being better received (typically) than Spider-Man 1, made less. 
 
Pirates 2, while being worse received (typically) than Pirates 2, made more. 
 
But Pirates is a two-parter. Worked well for LotR, making each sequel draw in more money. 
 
It could go either way, it really could. Spider-Man getting arguably better, Pirates getting arguably worse. 
 
I think it'll depend on the movies themselves, as obvious as that may sound. If most people fine Spider-Man 3 an improvement on Spider-Man 2 and also find Pirates 3, at best, only as good as Pirates 1, the Spider-Man will be the big winner. 
 
Almost any other combination (SM3 and P3 better than their predecessors; both worse than their predecessors; SM3 worse but P3 better) would make me think Pirates will win. 
 
Transformers is a crap-shoot. I'd guess it'll do alright, but not the bank they want. End run - $100-150 million, unless they marketing blitz the thing AND it turns out to be very good. 
 
FF2? I think as long as it is at least a little better received than the first movie that it will do about $150 - $200 million. If it is poorly received and/or has a poor opening weekend (like, say, $30 million) then it'll tank at about $80-100 million. 
 
Oh, and YAY! to Hot Fuzz expanding. I was afraid I'd have to wait for video (I am not driving 2 hours one way to see ANY film.)” 

Bjjdenver: “Spiderman 3 will be huge, shrek and POC will do well. I see Transformers being big...the trailers are good and there is alot of buzz around it. My prediction is that FF2 does less than 100 mil. 
 
Spiderman appeals to such a broad audience, it is hard for me to see it not being top.” 
 
 
 

Next Box Office Question: 

Over the next week, think about the summer season and its movies. Try to guess the top 10 Box Office Winners from 1-10. As time goes onward, we can see whom’s top 10 is looking to be the closest to accuracy. 

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
2. Spider-Man 3
3. Harry Potter: Order of the Phoenix
4. Shrek 3
5. Fantastic Four
6. Transformers
7. etc etc etc etc

Give us your top 10 from Box Office Champion to second to third to 10^th. 
 

Friday May 04, 2007 Releases: 

Wide Releases

Spider-Man 3 (4,000 screens)

Lucky You (2,500+ screens) 

Limited Releases

Away From Her

Civic Duty

The Flying Scotsman

Paris, je t’aime

Waitress 

That’s going to do it for this week’s Box Office Report. See you next time, Maniacs!