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ENCHANTED Continues Victory Dance

By: Jarrod Sarafin, News Editor
Date: Sunday, December 02, 2007

It was a weekend where half the movies didn’t budge. Five of the 10 movies landed in the same exact spot as they did last weekend while Awake’s debut pushed Hitman down one slot. It was also a weekend, judging from the numbers, where audiences chose to do other things then attend the theaters. The only film to hit the double-digit million mark was the #1 film, with Disney’s Enchanted continuing its successful run.
 
The live-action take on the fairy tale pulled in 17.0 million in 3,730 theaters. With that kind of box office take on that amount of theater distribution, it points to an average per showing rate of $4,563. In fact, no movie pulled over $5,000 per showing for this weekend. In two weekends, the Disney flick has pulled in 70.6 million.
 
Landing in second place once again is the Screen Gems-holiday themed release of This Christmas, pulling in another 8.4 mil in 1,858 theaters. This film is clearly a success for the Sony distributor, taking in 36.8 million over two weekends with a budget of only 13 mil.
 
Paramount’s release of Beowulf also stayed status quo, once again landing in 3rd place for the second consecutive weekend. The adventure, based on the heroic poem, grabbed 7.8 million in its third weekend. As I said last weekend, the question still remains on how much of a success this film will be. The studio has its budget listed at 150 million and over the course of the last 17 days; it has a domestic total of 68.6 million. The good thing for the studio is that it’s clearing some respectable cash in its early foreign releases, accumulating an international tally of 48.4 million so far. So, at this moment, it has a worldwide gross of 117.0 million. It has another week or two before it hits the 150 mil mark for the studio.
 
Time to discuss the only new wide release for the weekend. MGM released the horror film Awake on 2,002 theaters this week and ended up landing in 4th place with a 6.0 mil box office take. This point to an average per showing rate of $3,002. There’s no budget listed for this film but it’s most likely not very high. Still, the question remains whether this film will have legs at the box office. Will it stand steady or will it drop out of the top 10? We’ll see very soon.
 
Fox’s Hitman moved down one slot to 5th place, pulling in another 5.8 million in its second weekend of release. The film is showing on 2,468 theaters so this take points to an average per showing rate of only $2,350. Again, no budget listed for the film. Thus far, it has 30.2 million in domestic receipts.
 
The Warner Bros-holiday themed film of Fred Claus lands once again in 6th place for this weekend, pulling in another 5.5 million in its fourth week of release. This film hasn’t done badly at all, accumulating a domestic tally of 59.7 million. I’m not sure how well it will do well in overseas sales when its get released over the next month but its domestic total has it in good shape even with no budget listed.
 
August Rush landed again in 7th place by taking 5.1 million in its 2,310 theaters across the country. It had an average per showing rate of $2,229 and has totaled a domestic take of 20.3 million over the last 10 days of release.
 
The only film that has less than 1,000 theaters landed in 8th place this weekend. No Country for Old Men moved up 3 slots this weekend, taking in 4.5 million on 995 theaters across the nation. The film had a respectable average of $4,523 per showing and has taken in 23.0 million in a limited run of four weeks.
 
The Dreamworks animation Bee Movie dropped from 5th place to 9th place this weekend by taking in 4.4 million. This film is still showing in 3,150 theaters in its fifth week of release so it points a low average of only $1,419 per showing. Like Beowulf, the jury is still out on how much of a success this film will end up being here. It has a budget listed at 150 million and yet it only has 117.6 million in domestic receipts. It’s fared no better in its foreign release so far, pulling in only 12.4 million, which has its worldwide gross at 130.0 million.
 
Landing in 10th place this weekend is Universal’s release of American Gangster. There is no jury on this one in terms of box office success. The film has made its money back on domestic totals alone and stands to gain more profits from its later foreign release. The film pulled in another 4.2 million this weekend on 2,699 theaters across the nation with an average per showing rate of $1,585. In five weeks of release, the 100-mil budgeted film has 121.7 mil in domestic receipts. The Ridley Scott film also has another 30.4 mil in foreign sales, which has its worldwide gross sitting comfortably at 152.1 mil.
 
Note: If you’re wondering where The Mist is and why it’s already out of the top 10 after only one weekend, I’ll add the following note. The Mist is indeed in 11th place this weekend but not by much. In fact, when the actual numbers come in on Monday night, it could end up in 10th place and American Gangster could end up in 11th place. The two films are that close. American Gangster has a weekend total of $4,278,000. The Mist has a weekend total of $4,245,000. With only 30 thousand separating the two films, it’s a close race for the final 10th place for the weekend.
 
It should also be noted that MGM has chosen to release the budget of the film. Frank Darabont’s adaptation of the Stephen King novel is only 18 million. In two weeks of release, it has a domestic total of 19.2 million.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rank
Movie
Weekend $
Theaters
Average
Total $
Week #
1
Enchanted
17.0 mil
3,730
$4,563
70.6 mil
2
2
This Christmas
8.4 mil
1,858
$4,520
36.8 mil
2
3
Beowulf
7.8 mil
3,249
$2,425
68.6 mil
3
4
Awake
6.0 mil
2,002
$3,002
6.0 mil
1
5
Hitman
5.8 mil
2,468
$2,350
30.2 mil
2
6
Fred Claus
5.5 mil
3,420
$1,608
59.7 mil
4
7
August Rush
5.1 mil
2,310
$2,229
20.3 mil
2
8
No Country for Old Men
4.5 mil
995
$4,523
23.0 mil
4
9
Bee Movie
4.4 mil
3,150
$1,419
117.6 mil
5
10
American Gangster
4.2 mil
2,699
$1,585
121.7 mil
5
 
 
The next week is a very important event for New Line Cinema. For two years now, analysts have wondered if New Line’s Bob Shaye can break out another big time franchise with the same success of Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings trilogy. New Line has stated publicly in the past their hopes for The Golden Compass in terms of reliving that fantasy experience/success.
 
New Line has a lot riding on the line here. The question becomes…
 
Will this film be a major success? Will it perform in the same light as the success the studio had for the Lotr trilogy?
 
I don’t see that happening…
 
It’s not so much the source material that has me in doubt here. I understand that there has been controversy surrounding Philip Pullman’s His Dark Material series, which The Golden Compass is based on, but that’s not why I’m in doubt on the film’s success surpassing the Lotr trilogy. After all, there is a large following which loves the HDM series by Pullman. The book’s fans will be in theaters next week so that should offset some of the controversy.
 
No, the two concerns that have me in doubt are competition & recent fantasy failures.
 
It’s more the success rate (or lack there of ) of recent fantasies which have me in doubt. Especially fantasy series based on novels. The last two fantasies, based on books from popular series, fell short of the box office mark in their domestic launches here in the states.
 
The Seeker: The Dark is Rising, based on the series by Susan Cooper, was an absolute failure for 20th Century Fox. The studio opened it up in 3,141 theaters on October 5, 2007 and yet it only debuted with 3.7 million in cash. It fared no better as time moved forward for the studio. In the end, the film only grossed 8.7 mil domestically and 20.6 mil in foreign sales. Of course, horrible reviews didn’t help their cause. The film has a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 3.9 out of 10. It’s ranked 48th on the Live Action-Fantasy list.
 
Stardust, based on the novel by Neil Gaiman, fared a little better for Paramount but still ended up a disappointment at the box office. The film opened up in 2,540 theaters on August 10, 2007 and only brought in 9.1 million in its debut. It would go on to gross 38.3 million domestically. The good thing for Paramount is that it has taken in three times that amount in foreign box office sales, bringing in 92.5 million in receipts. So, the film which has a budget listed listed at 70 mil, has grabbed a worldwide total of 130.9 million. It’s not a total failure for Paramount with the studio taking 50+ mil over the budget line but it still fell short in expectations from those executives. It just couldn’t stand toe-to-toe with The Bourne Ultimatum, a major success for Universal in August. Stardust has a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 6.7 out of 10. The film is ranked 22nd on the Live Action-Fantasy list.
 
 
So, how will The Golden Compass do in its upcoming release? I see it performing much better than Stardust and The Seeker by being released in December but do I see it coming anywhere near New Line’s Lord of the Rings films?
 
No.
 
Part of it may be the above films’ recent failures pointing to a cynicism towards fantasy novel adaptations of late. Part of it knows just how spread out the month of December will be in the upcoming weeks. The Golden Compass only has one week to make some serious box office cash before Warner Bros releases I Am Legend, another fantasy-horror based on another best selling novel. A third part is the obvious point that His Dark Materials doesn’t have the fan base to the same degree that Lord of the Rings has, due in large part to how long the respective series have been in the market.
 
Perhaps, I’m wrong here. Perhaps, I’m way off the mark and The Golden Compass ends up being an international smash hit for New Line. The film could end up grossing as much as Fellowship of the Ring and the studio could end up having another box office successful fantasy franchise.
 
For my part, I see the film performing very well and making its money back. I see it as a success but not in the same terms as the studio hopes, especially not in terms of their last fantasy trilogy.
 
The December corridor is stacked in the same context of the previous summer. Studios have lined up too many films to compete against each other in too short a period of time and this strategy will likely cause some films to fail at the box office.
 
Here’s the Wide release schedule for December:
 
December 7, 2007:
 
The Golden Compass (3,000+ theaters)
 
December 14, 2007:
 
I Am Legend
Alvin in the Chipmunks
The Perfect Holiday (formerly This Christmas)
 
December 21, 2007:
 
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Charlie Wilson’s War
Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
P.S I Love You
 
December 25, 2007:
 
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
The Water Horse: Legend of the Deep
The Great Debaters
 
 
I understand that studios need to fit some of these films in before the Oscar nomination ballots are mailed but fitting so many films together in such a short period of time will spell trouble for their box office success rates.
 
There’s only four days separating the release of 8 major films in the Dec 21-25 corridor. Two of those films are rated-R tent poles (AvP2 & Sweeney Todd) going up against a major comedy, two family films and three other wide releases.
 
Someone is going to take a major hit here in the box office.
 
The question is….who?
 
That’s enough of my take on this subject. Let’s hear your thoughts.
 
Who do you see running away with the Christmas victory here? Who do you see failing? Do you see The Golden Compass being a major success for New Line or do you see I Am Legend cutting into that film’s second weekend totals?
 
Here’s the top 10 Fantasy-Live Action Films of All Time. As you will see, Warner Bros. and New Line pretty much control the top 10. This list is comprised of live-action fantasies based on fantasy novels published before the films.
 
 
Rank
Movie
Opening $
Theaters
Domestic $
Release
1
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
72.6 mil
3,703
377.0 mil
12/17/03
2
Lord of the Rings: The TwoTowers
62.0 mil
3,622
341.7 mil
12/18/02
3
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone
90.2 mil
3,672
317.5 mil
11/16/01
4
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
47.2 mil
3,359
314.7 mil
12/19/01
5
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
77.1 mil
4,285
291.9 mil
07/11/07
6
Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
65.5 mil
3,616
291.7 mil
12/09/05
7
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
102.6 mil
3,858
290.0 mil
11/18/05
8
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
88.3 mil
3,682
261.9 mil
11/15/02
9
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban
93.6 mil
3,855
249.5 mil
06/04/04
10
Hook
13.5 mil
2,197
119.6 mil
12/11/91
 
 
Friday December 7, 2007 Releases:
 
Wide Releases
The Golden Compass (3,000+ theaters)
 
Limited Releases
Dirty Laundry
The Amateurs
Atonement
Grace is Gone
Juno
Looking for Cheyenne
Tony ‘n’ Tina’s Wedding
The Walker


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Comments/Responses
1
westend • Dec 02, 2007, 02:20pm •
I'm guessing Golden Compass will bring in Narnia type numbers.

jppintar326 • Dec 02, 2007, 04:28pm •
The controversy regarding The Golden Compass will help its box office in the first weekend. I think calls to boycott the film will backfire just like it did with The DaVinci Code. I Am Legend looks like it is a darker film that will bring in older viewers.

snallygaster • Dec 02, 2007, 07:26pm •
I don't believe The Golden Compass will bring in Narnia-type numbers. Jarrod hit the nail on the head when he said that this series of books doesn't have the huge fanbase that LotR or Narnia have simply because the book has not been out nearly as long. The Golden Compass is only about ten years old, whereas at least three generations have grown up on LotR and Narnia. Harry Potter is very recent as well, but its popularity is nothing short of phenomenal. Of course last year's now-obligitory "big holiday-season fantasy movie" was Eragon, also based on a recent fantasy novel series, and it bombed, both critically and at the box office. I think the Golden Compass will perform well, avoiding Eragon's crash, but not as well as LotR/Narnia/Potter movies.

Overall, I think National Treasure 2 may pull in the most over the holiday season. Audiences are familiar with the first one, so they know what to expect. It has a family-friendly rating and broad appeal, so I think this will be the winner. I Am Legend will probably come in a close second, thanks to Will Smith and some compelling trailers, but I believe it will be a bit too grim for some families. I suspect third place will be a very close call between The Golden Compass and Enchanted.

And a note to Jarrod - The Perfect Holiday is definitely not the same movie as This Christmas.

almostunbiased • Dec 02, 2007, 08:32pm •
Took the kids to see Enchanted. Cute movie, had a few laughs, my daughter loved it, my younger son said it was too fairy talish or something. I was entertained, but it is corny, of course it's supposed to be so that's the charm.
I'm actually semi interested in the Golden Compass. Not sure if I'll get to the theater or not though. I can't see it making the kind of numbers the top 9 did on the all-time list, but it can beat Hook I'm sure.
I'm really looking forward to Nat Treasure 2, though I'm sure it won't be nearly as good as the first, I bet it will still be fun.
As for StarDust, I thought that was in my top three movies last summer and I'm looking forward to owning it.

lazerman • Dec 02, 2007, 09:07pm •
I have to disagree with snallgaster, all signs seem to be pointing to a breakthrough with THE GOLDEN COMPASS. Jarrod pointed out the Fantasy Failures but you have to consider WHEN those were released, to expect them to rake it in was stupid on the Execs part. But THE GOLDEN COMPASS is getting great marketing and that will help its numbers, not to mention it looks really good, regardless of the source material.

SO I will give the GOLDEN COMPASS the winner for December, I AM LEGEND looks aweful, and to release such a depressing looking film during the "Happy Holiday" season is well wrong. I wish AVP :R should have been a summer film, it too will fall short of expectaions, and so will SWEENY TODD.

And I am fairly sure, regardless of the DOmestic take, if they release THE GOLDEN COMPASS to the foreign Market, it will pull in WAY better numbers than ERAGON did last December.


Dazzler • Dec 03, 2007, 06:45am •
I was dragged to Awake for the possible chance of a nude scene with Alba. (Side boob shot only in case you were wondering). Skip this horrible movie.

Enchanted was really good. Like a real live action disney cartoon movie with the songs that actually fit. Needed a hardcore fight with the dragon at the end but it's worth seeing. Cyclops was pretty funny in it also. I am glad he is getting more gigs. I saw a chick flick trailer for him also that is coming up, no way I am seeing it but it's good that he is working.

karas1 • Dec 04, 2007, 07:20am •
The thing about Stardust was that the advertising campagin was so poor. The commercials made it seem excessively generic. If I hadn't known anything about it beforehand the commercials would not have made me want to see the film.

Since I did know something about it beforehand I went to see it and found it very entertaining. I hope people discover it on DVD and it gets the props it deserves.

I'm planning to see The Golden Compass. The commercials for that film make it look exciting and the controversey being generated by the religious themes are sure to bring in the curious. I imagine it will do well at the box office.

I might go see Sweeny Todd. None of those other films attract me.

1
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