FF. "phenomena" forms at the BOX OFFICE this weeke

[ToM]

The performance of Fantastic Four at the box office continues to be...fantastic. And something of a phenomena. It lost the top spot it's second weekend out due to a double whammy from Charlie And The Chocolate Factory and the highly popular Wedding Crashers. It's third weekend out, it was dumped to third, then fourth place by a combination attack of The Island (mega-blockbuster meister Micheal Bay's creation) and The Bad News Bears. This caused the FF. adaptation to fall all the way down to the number four slot (not too fantastic a place to be the third weekend out).

But then something happened.

Fantastic Four started fighting back, drawing enough audience on Saturday to rise up and *return* to the number three position. The two newest releases at the box office then fell away. Fantastic Four took *back* lost ground at the box office, and has kept it since. Ladies and gentlemen, these are serious box office legs we're talking about here. The Matrix Reloaded, as big of an opening as it had, only ever lost ground. And this summer, in spite of "positive word of mouth" **Batman Begins** has *never* reclaimed a lost position at the box office, only ever lost ground since the second weekend out. Fantastic Four is standing it's ground on a daily and now weekend to weekend basis in a way few summer movies ever manage.

Only very strong word of mouth can allow for this.

It was also possible that after opening, audiences would return to War of The Worlds, leaving Fantastic Four to dry out. Instead, after the FF. opening totally stripped War of The Worlds of more than half of it's audience, FF. has been the movie audiences have been returning to. In fact, WOTW has never recovered from the FF. opening, and now sits at the number five spot, unable to regain ground against FF. as FF. has done against the new competitors (so it's not just shrugging off WOTW, but all the new one sadded to the box office as well).

Some interesting developements took the second weekend as well with regard to retaking ground. According to box office tracking, yes, Fantastic Four saw a sixty plus decrease in ticket sales from the first weekend for the second. But look at the *actuals* from the weekend *days* individually.

Friday sees the largest decrease, better than sixty percent. But Saturday only sees a 55.4% decrease. Sunday, with seven million dollars taken in, is a 51.0% decrease. Now, greater than fifty percent isn't good, but this is *barely* that. And the third Monday sees a 55.1% decrease from the *first Monday. Fantastic Four is holding on really well for these days.

What this indicates is an *increase* in box office for the *total box* office. People went to see Wedding Crashers and Charlie And The Chocolate Factory for their first weekends, and *then* headed out to see Fantastic Four (largely on Sunday). They chose to go see Wedding Crashers or Charlie, waited a day or so, and then checked out Fantastic Four. It's not like the audience bailed on the film, they're *still* coming in and giving it respectable business. Charlie took a loss of eight percent on Saturday from Friday night...and FF. saw an *increase* of a similar percentage on Saturday (though somewhat smaller).

The suggestion here is that after Friday people *mostly* went into either Wedding Crashers or Fantastic Four when they weren't going to see Charlie, or had *already* seen Charlie on Friday and went to a movie the next day too.

And, at this point, where...is The Batman? He's at home, WASH'IN HIS TIGHTS! Actually, he's washing them at the car wash along with his tires.

ToM

[easy D]

:|






So..........what?

[The Xenos]

Wow. I think Tom has finally lost it. Tom, you're drawing WAY too many conclutions from the data. Don't be a scientist. Your theories about what people went to see are just theories loosely based off of the data. You're too wrapped up with your own assumptions and your own goals to see clearly.

Plus there was not enough reason to start a new thread about this non-miracle.

You know what happened? The movies that came out this week BOMBED. Simple as that. Are you trying to frame their failures as FF's success? You think Fantastic Four brought them down?! That's pretty sad.

What this indicates is an *increase* in box office for the *total box* office. People went to see Wedding Crashers and Charlie And The Chocolate Factory for their first weekends, and *then* headed out to see Fantastic Four (largely on Sunday). They chose to go see Wedding Crashers or Charlie, waited a day or so, and then checked out Fantastic Four. It's not like the audience bailed on the film, they're *still* coming in and giving it respectable business. Charlie took a loss of eight percent on Saturday from Friday night...and FF. saw an *increase* of a similar percentage on Saturday (though somewhat smaller).

What the hell are you talking about? You know for a fact that all these people who went last week to see Wedding Crashers and Charlie then went to see FF? That doesn't make sense! Most poeple are not going to movies more than once a week. Even that is something. Haven't you heard movie attendance is down. You are just making crap up now when you say people went to see FF after going to see one of the top two teh day before. Who are these imaginary hordes people, Tom, going to see movies two days in a row?

There is no data to suggest that Fantastic Four would have that happen. There is nothing to say it's been really bigger this weekend instead of just going down as movies usually do. You're nitpicking over little numbers to prove your preset points and losing concept of context and the whole picture. SOme would say losing touch with reality. Again, the movies out this week bombed. Simple as that. Somehow you cannot see that.

And for the second time you use the old tired "washing his tights" line. I doubt you even saw Batman Begins. Batman's over a month old, of course, it's going down. Geez.

For your own sake and appeance, man, give it up. Fantastic Four did good, but you're making too much out of it.

-Xenos

[The Xenos]

Just checking on that stats at Box Office Mojo.

I was readingthis article (http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1854&p=.htm) about how The Island and Bad News Bears bombed. Some great lines aobut those two:

The Island had a genre identity crisis, crudely mixing futuristic sci-fi with present-day action in what looked like a cross between Logan's Run and The 6th Day. Since sci-fi can be a tough sell, the ads quickly dispensed with any sense of mystery, and they didn't develop characters to draw audiences into the movie's world. Instead, they showcased the generic spectacle. The plot seemed to be revealed in the trailers with the refrain that there is no Island—and the fact that there's no island in a movie called The Island was pounded into potential moviegoers. The natural reaction was indifference.

Bad News Bears fouled out with an estimated $11.5 million at 3,183 theaters. The $35 million movie was the third of the summer about an unlikely coach of a ragtag kids' sports team and the third to disappoint, after Kicking and Screaming and Rebound. It was also Paramount's second remake of a 1970's sports comedy following the successful The Longest Yard

They also say that while Thorton was good in it, he also was too similar a character to his recent movie Bad Santa.

Fantatic Four did nothing good or bad and did not get a mention.

It had a few nice thigns to say about Batman. So he's not jsut washing his tights.

Batman Begins enjoyed its strongest hold yet, down 22 percent to an estimated $4.7 million. With $191.1 million in 40 days, the Caped Crusader's resurrection is certain to top $200 million.

Of course being a month old, so Batman is being bumped down by four movies opening this weekend is expected.

Oh yeah, That's another weird thing aobut this weekend. We had four new movies out. Two big ones, one comedy and one big Bay blockbuster, bombed. Plus you had two smaller films do pretty well for the small films they were, 'Hustle and Flow' and Rob Zombie's 'Devil's Rejects'.

Now i'm kinda glad Tom keeping brining up the box office. While I disagree with the supposed miracles he thinks Fantastic Four makes, the box office itself is interesting. You get to see how marketing works, or in this week's case totally fails.

-Xenos

[The Xenos]

The more I look at these numbers the more interesting things I see across the board.

Actually, I think the real success is Wedding Crashers. In 500 theartes less than Fantastic Four it held second place and kept close with Willy Wonka which had a good 800 or so thearters more.

Fantastic Four is doing good, but nothing spectacular. Then again neither did Batman.

Yet going back to look, if you want to draw straws, it seems Batman had done more by its third week than Fantastic Four in its third week. Batman had made $150 million (with it's three extra days from a Wednesday opening) by its third week. Fantastic Four has only made $122 million in its three weeks out. Batman Begins made that by its second weekend.

Of course I think that this week's disapointments and odd numbers go to show something, there are too many damn movies being released. The market is oversaturated on a per week basis and I think overall. The studios keep thinking the market needs to keep going up and up with no stopping and that's plain impossible. The studios think they can realease as much as they can and we will just keep consuming it all. They need to wake up.

Like I was saying ealier people don't go to the movies as much as they used to. If something seems too familiar or of the damn plot is already 3/4 given away in the trailer, then they might as well save their money.

I just set myself up for something didn't I? Before Tom starts angrily screaming RUBBER SUIT like Harry Knowels conversly happily screams MAN IN SUIT, lemme say that Batman only superficially looks similar. If all you're looking at is Batman's tights (and I would see someone about that hangup), then you miss something obvious. This is quite a differnet movie. It's Batman as a serious drama with some good action thrown in. You had good named dramatic actors in this film. It also has an excellent script, cinematography and direction. It didn't rely on flashy effects to sell it. It isn't a typical blockbuster or superhero movie, yet it's still done well. Fantastic Four is typical a Hollywood blobkbuster and superhero movie and has typically done well.

-Xenos

[WC]

It had a few nice things to say about Batman. So he's not just washing his tights.

-Xenos

And it's probably only Adam West who's doing that anyway. Unless Christian Bale took up the spandex. :lol:

[ToM]

So, Xenos you're saying these two movies bombed, and that's why FF. climbed, eh? I'm going to show you why you're wrong here.


As for the two *new* films bombing, yes, they're bombing. All the same, they took FF down a notch the first day, then FF sees a sizeable *increase* between Friday and Saturday. It's *not* because Bad News Bears and The Island *decreased* in sales between Friday and Saturday, FF. overtook them because it started making even MORE MONEY.

Friday, The Island made $4,270,000 and then *increased this to $4,660,000 on Saturday! So, The Island was actually *growing* when Fantastic Four pushed back and pushed beyond the new films.

Bad News Bears took in $4,000,000 on Friday and then sucked in $4,000,000 for Saturday. It *didn't* shrink and fall passed Fantastic Four as you seem to be suggesting ("these new films were bombs"). What happened was that Fantastic Four took brought *more* people *back* to it this weekend.

Now, I might add, that if it were simply a case of films bombing allowing Fantastic Four to rise up two positions on the box office chart in a single weekend....why then is it that Batman Begins, a film that's met with *many* misfires and bombs, has *never* moved back *up* the chart, only held a position or steadily fallen from week to week? I mean, if your theory is correct, then why didn't the other films just fall along the side of the road, and Batman on a bell curve just float on up a position or two? Because that isn't what happened here.

When you look at the data, what you discover is that Fantastic Four, in spite of fan boy bile, in spite of Roger Ebert and a thousand thousand other critics, is a movie a great many people are enjoying. This isn't some front loaded movie that people hate cruising into two hundred million because of a whopping opening weekend, this is a movie building it's audience, keeping people coming in against stiff competition and a crowded box office. That only happens when people say favorable things about it.

Not everybody who went to see Wedding Crashers and Charlie went in to see FF...but some people did. And the way this is noticed is that after Friday FF. sees a steady *increase* in people going to see it while, for example, Charlie sees a slight *dip* for those days. And the increase for FF. is in the same margin. Now, people were also seeing Wedding Crashers. So, some of the people who went to Charlie *swapped* for Wedding Crashers the next day, and vica versa. But FF picked up enough of that to make a difference.

Now, as for Batman Begins going down after four weeks, that's not what I'm talking about there. I'm talking about how Batman Begins *never* managed, against flops against misfires, against fading giants (Star Wars) managed to reclaim a lost space on the ladder, not once this entire summer. So, tell us about why this is maybe? Go'wan, dig through the box office data, call up articles, do whatever you need to, you won't be able to explain this. FF. *is* doing something unique here.

ToM

[Bigkid]

In looking at their box office take for this weekend, they DID manage to sit in the 3 hole, did the FF........ however, their weekend take was 12.3mil, as compared to last week's take of 22.7...... so, reallly, even though it IS impressive that they've been able to keep steady busiiness going, I would point out that the competition FROM last week (being Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Wedding Crashers), were better movie going fare then what came out this past week (The Island, Bad News Bears, Devils Rejects). But those films, let's face it, didn't fare as well with critics as Fantastic Four did. But I can see ToM's point: The Island get's a 1 star review, and it show's in their take. FF get's a similar review, and yet audiences ARE giving it better biz anyway. But, to be fair ToM, that's a LOT of business for the FF to drop in one week (22-12mil)......... however, it does seem to be doing pretty well along the lines of a movie doing "word of mouth" business. And, according to recent industry reports, it's doing pretty damn good business overseas as well. Now I don't know if they are going to crack the 200 mil mark world wide, but I do believe they have a better chance at that number GLOBALLY then domestically, for sure.

[ToM]

Well Bigkid, the box office for Fantastic Four this weekend gets more amazing by today. Seems that when the *actuals* for the weekend were tallied, Fantastic Four in *reality* fell all the way down to number *five* on the box office chart on Friday (as is now reported at Box Office Mojo). And yet, after being bumped all the way down to number five, it reasserted itself and *rose* all the way back up to number three. That's...well, fantastic if not simply amazing.

Again, I'd like to point out that Batman Begins, a movie with good word of mouth and positive critical buzz has never been able to even recapture a *single* position let alone climb *three* (five to four, four to three).

Not only that, but Fantastic Four only decreased a mere 46.1 million from the prior weekend! Understand, a summer blockbuster is expected to drop at *least* fifty percent from one weekend to the next. Most see a larger drop off than this. But for a *less* than fifty percent this many weeks in? That's incredible.

I'd like to point out at this juncture something very true that Xenos mentioned, oversaturation at the box office. Theaters are crammed with movies, and there's not enough audience to go around. Fantastic Four *already* had to fend with War of The Worlds, Charlie And The Chocolate Factory *and* the highly popular Wedding Crashers. But this weekend saw a Micheal Bay picture and that Bad News Bears flop. For Fantastic Four to retain more than fifty percent of it's audience from the prior weekend with *all* these movies being stacked on is something most box office trackers would never have anticipated. This movie is more than solid, it's really achieving in spite of harsh criticism.

Anyway, if you examine *all* of this data, the better than hoped for audience retention for the weekend, the dropping all the way down to number five, the bounce instantly back up to number three (and *keep* that position)...there's no way you can simply ascribe this to "Oh, those other movies were just flops and that's why." You know, all the more given that those "flops" were either standing their ground making the same amount for two days, *or* (as is the case with the Bay picture) actually *growing* in ticket sales.

Okay Fantastic Four, don't pull a # 191 on us now!

ToM