Future Anachronism-Science Fiction Gone Wrong

[Greyman]

In writing about 2001: A Space Odyssey, and the plausibility of most of its concepts, I also thought about the most obvious problem with Arthur C. Clarke's prediction: the year in the title.

Unless I've been on an acid trip for the past 5 years, the human race does not have a regular base on the moon and we have not sent manned space craft to Saturn.

This made me think of other problem concepts: like Jules Verne's bullet rocket to the moon, and, of course, that other year-in-title view of what was then the future: Orwell's 1984.

Can you guys think of any other novels and their predictions of the future that never came to pass?

[Space Tycoon]

In a general sense, most sf authors who were Clarke's contemporaries seemed to have an overly optimistic appraisal of where we would be in space by now. I should say, it seems overly optimistic from our vantage point.

Niven's Known Space chronology had astronauts sent to Venus, Mercury, Mars even distant Pluto by the 1970's and 90's.

And of course Star Trek had all of this as well, including the first Earth-Saturn manned mission which is supposed to take place next year I believe.

Ditto Joe Haldeman in Forever War, which gives us a military base on Charon and FTL interstellar travel by 199(?), if I'm not mistaken.

As I say, it only seems overly optimistic because we have fallen so far short of where we ought to have been by now, had not politics and myopia gotten in the way. AC Clarke wrote that we could have afforded most of what was depicted in 2001 had it not been for the ruinous Vietnam War. Jerry Pournelle made similar comments about the Gulf War. It's sad to think what we won't be able to afford in the comng decades, thanks to You-Know-What.

But there is no reason we couldn't have had basic manned exploration programs to the nearby solar objects, had it not been for various political obstructions, such as the federal government's monopoly on manned space travel.

Oh, but there I go being political again...



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[madi]

If you go to Heinlien's early short stories, he has the first manned missions into space being privately funded. In fact, there is a whole children's campaign to help fund it by a cereal company, if I remember correctly, sort of like the March of Dimes, only the kids got a prize for thier donation.

He made a lot of predictions and got most of them "nearly" right. When it started becoming obvious that most of what he predicted wouldn't work out the way he thought it would, he started writing about alternative, but co-existing, timelines, where his predictions might have come true, but the "real" time line existed as well.

[Greyman]

It's been too long since I read Forever War. Good read.

I've heard Clarke's rant on where we could have been, had politics not stood in the way. I think he also mentioned that the Cold War was a contributing factor.

Haven't read much of Heinlein's short stories, but wasn't his Luna City colonized around now?

[neglet]

I believe so. Heinlein's story collection "The Past Through Tomorrow" has all sorts of predictions for the future, most of which occurred by the turn of the century. There were all sorts of cool things besides space travel and lunar colonies, like rolling roads.

The Clarke anachronism I think is closest to becoming reality is the space elevator (from "The Fountains of Paradise"). I'm pretty sure I'll see that within my lifetime, before any lunar colonies or regular intra-solar system space travel.

[Greyman]

Originally Posted by neglet

I believe so. Heinlein's story collection "The Past Through Tomorrow" has all sorts of predictions for the future, most of which occurred by the turn of the century. There were all sorts of cool things besides space travel and lunar colonies, like rolling roads.

The Clarke anachronism I think is closest to becoming reality is the space elevator (from "The Fountains of Paradise"). I'm pretty sure I'll see that within my lifetime, before any lunar colonies or regular intra-solar system space travel.

I liked some of the more mundane aspects, like the velcro shoes and the "space plane."

One of my favorite chuckles from 2001 was when he was talking about the advances in education through the 1990's to allow the characters in the book to hold the equivalents of several doctorates in a few years.