OCEAN'S THIRTEEN Hits the Jackpot

New predictions -

Pirates 3 is shot out of the water. The competition is just TOO FIERCE this summer. I am humbled by my inability to consider that well enough.

Spidey might well beat Pirates. I thought both films would be closer to 400 million. Goes to show what do I know, huh? The shock for me is that Drek 3 might, just might, beat Pirates 3. WHAT? Blech.

FF is gonna scream in and take things by storm - gauging it's competition in theater, I'm thinking $70-90 million opening, minimum, and I wouldn't be shocked with something closer to $105 million.

Pirates and Spidey might flip on my list, but otherwise I'm still FAIRLY confident in my predictions.

Knocked Up is doing better than I thought it would, but not as good as many had hyped it would.

Jarrod, there's an easy explanation of Shrek's relatively weak performance overseas: Paramount did not do a simultaneous world-wide release of Shrek 3. According to IMDB's release schedule, Shrek 3 has not been released yet in a lot of heavy-hitting countries including the UK and Japan, and it will continue to premiere in different countries through the end of August:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0413267/releaseinfo

Why they opted for that sort of foreign release schedule instead of a simultaneous one, I don't know - you'd have to ask Paramount.

"One has to wonder why Fox Searchlight keeps increasing Waitress in miniscule amounts of theaters every week. "

This sort of slowly-increasing rollout worked extremely well for "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," and has since become the template for this sort of movie (low budget, independent "chick flick" for lack of a better term). It's a cautious tactic, relying a lot on word-of-mouth and very specific target marketing to the female audience, but it seems to work.

I think you're dead on, Snallygaster.
And Merin I agree with you that Spidey will win out as I said last week after watching Pirates. And although both movies are only shadows of the first, I think Spidey is a little more mass market friendly with a simple plot and just lots of action. I was disappointed in both, but that is normal for me and sequels.

Well, congrats to "Ocean's Thirteen!" As for
"Knocked Up," I would think KNOCKED OUT
might be more appropriate. There was so much written about how it actually "stolen"
the top spot from "Pirates," yet it failed to
overtake "Pirates" in the No. 2 spot. It doesn't matter. The FF will take the top spot, while "Ocean"s Thirteen" will cling for
dear life to the to the second position.
Whatever legs "Knocked Up" has simply won't be enough. Merlin's right the competition is WAY TOO FIERCE! Look Out!
This summer will obliterate all previous box
office records. Glad to see so many folks out
at the cineplexes this weekend. Take that
bootleggers!

Way Too Fierce is correct.

Just letting eveyone know I may getting rather mean & nasty towards studios in the next few weeks.

Releasing Die Hard 4.0, Transformers & Harry Potter 5 so close to each other has me rather ticked off.

Jarrod Sarafin

filmnotmovie - I think you're being a bit harsh on Knocked Up. Pirates beat it by a meager $1.3M. Knocked Up only dropped 34% in its second week, which is a good indication that it's getting good word-of-mouth and should have good legs for the long run. I still wouldn't put it in my own Top Ten list for the summer box office, but it's going to be closer than I thought. It's doing quite well for an R-rated comedy.

OTOH, Pirates is definitely not performing on a par with the previous installment. For that matter - as Merin noted - the question is no longer whether or not Pirates will overtake Spidey for the number one slot, but whether it can beat Shrek for the number two position. In its third week, Pirates is at $254M. At its third week, Shrek was at $256M. Given the much shorter running time, I'm starting to think that Shrek will edge out Pirates before the dust settles. It's also to Shrek's benefit that Surf's Up opened to weak numbers.

Nothing terribly surprising here, I suppose. The Webhead has essentially finished off Captain Jack, and unless there's a real shocker in the next few weeks, Spidey 3 should be your champ-een.
I think Shrek may, indeed, finish ahead of POTC3; it will be easier to drop the kids off to see a shorter movie.
I haven't seen Shrek 3 yet, but I enjoyed both Pirates and Spidey. I hope the rest of the lineup this summer continues to entertain. That may make headaches from a numbers perspective, but I do like all the choices available to me.

I completely agree, Captmathman.

All box office number prognositications aside, there's an absurd number of movies out there that I want to see on any given weekend. Unfortunately they're coming so fast and furious that a lot will be lost in the shuffle before I get a chance to see them. That's why for the past couple weekends I've opted to see a couple of the weaker box office prospects (Mr. Brooks, Hostel 2) rather than Shrek or Ocean's 13, because I'm assuming the big box office movies may still be around in a few weeks but the lesser movies won't. I'm looking forward to Jarrod getting "mean and nasty" towards the studios for their over-abundant release schedule this summer.

Personally, I LIKE the glut. I have no problem (well, other than occasionally financial) with seeing more than 1 movie a weekend. I have on multiple occasions seen more than 1 movie in a day. So having many great options just makes me giddy. It hurts the odds of me seeing a movie a second time in the theater (unless, like Ghost Rider or 300, I just have too much fun watching it - sadly, Pirates and Spidey weren't THAT fun) sure but on a selfish level I love it.
Last summer SUCKED badly for me. With X3 being like a slap in the face, the rest of the films just couldn't make up (despite how much I liked Superman Returns.)

Knocked Up only dropped 34%, sure, but that's 34% from like $30 million, as opposed to 60% from $60 million - they both pulled in about the same number of people, Pirates in its 3rd week as compared to Knocked Up in its second - looking at it that way (and comparing opening week to opening week, etc.) Knocked Up isn't in the same ballpark.

My brother always brings up this meaningless fact - "Lost In Space was the movie that beat Titanic for the number one spot" - and by this he means somehow Lost In Space "beat" Titanic. - - I have to constantly remind him that "Yeah, Lost In Space knocked Titanic out of the number one slot - after Titanic held it for 14 weeks!"

I do blame the media for hyping crap like "Shrek steals number one spot from Spider-Man" or crap like that - it completely misrepresents reality. Like a runner having made 2 laps around the track, but after completing the second lap a new, fresh runner starts running a lap - and the fresh runner beats the older runner for that lap. BIG DEAL!

I take Merin's point re Knocked Up and Pirates pulling the same number of people and how Knocked Up probably isn't doing as well but we do need to take into consideration the differing budgets and expectations. I daresay that Pirates will still make a bigger profit but the risks are all relative and Knocked Up is making a good profit for its studio.