Spider-Man 3 Continues to Dominate

This weekend's box office report actually shows that Spider-Man 3 is now in a much more vulnerable position to be overtaken by Pirates 3. I say that based on comparison to the first Spider-Man movie, rather than the second one. The first movie, like the third, was released the first weekend in May, so strategically they have a lot in common. I was checking the daily updates of the weekend box office, and SP3 was making anywhere from $1M to $1.5M less than SP1 on any given weekday. This weekend's box office shows a 60% drop from last weekend, which is quite steep especially when compared to SP1's 38% drop in its second weekend. In comparison, SP2's second weekend drop was in between, at 48%, but by its second weekend it was ahead of where SP3 is now in dollars. I still think Spidey will be the #1 movie of the summer, but it lost much of its potential lead after this weekend.

And regarding SP3's breaking the record of biggest gap between the #1 and #2 movies over a weekend - anybody want to take a guess at the previous record holder? The Superman Return bashers are gonna luv this - yep, Pirates 2's $136M opening weekend vs. Superman Returns $22M was the previous record holder. SP3's lead over Disturbia is colossal, but then again Disturbia was a teen-age thriller which was in its fourth weekend when SP3 was released. Superman Returns, on the other hand, was only in its second weekend of release - and it was supposed to be one of last summer's tentpole movies. Don't get me wrong - I'm not a SR basher - in fact, I enjoyed SR more than Pirates 2. I just never would have guessed that the gap was so huge between Pirates 2 and SR that SR would be the previous holder of that dubious distinction.

It will be interesting to see how Shrek the Third does next week. As noted, Shrek running time is about half of SM3 and POTC, which means there will be more showings a day. On the other hand, I saw the quality going down in Shrek 2. Is the Shrek series in danger of simply becoming a cash cow instead of telling a good story?

A 60% drop? Pirates 3 will have to do mediocre or worse to not win this contest now. Sorry, Spidey, you opened too early.

I'm fairly confident of my predictions now. Guessing that next weekend, especially because of Shrek's release, SM3 is looking at about another 60% drop then. It may pass my $350 Million prediction, but I half anticipated that. It probably won't break $400 million, though, especially with the full summer wanting those screens for other fare.

Again, I think PotC3 is going to have to have a poor opening (less than $150 million first week), or have a huge drop (like more than 60% second weekend) to lose this contest now.

Box Office 2007

1. POTC: AWE (This was my initial guess, but with a running time of 2hrs and 50min, it does not seem possible to be number one this year, but I have to stick by what I say.) - 600 Million
2. Fantastic Four: ROTSS (I chose them as second due to the fact it is highly anticipated; a chance t see the Silver Surfer in action and a glimpse of Galactus) - 445 Million
3. Transformers - 400 Million
4. Knocked Up (I think this will be a sleeper hit) - 380
5. The Simpsons/ Shrek the Third (I think they will tie - 325 million
6. Spidey 3 - 320 million
7. Die Hard 4 - 310 million
8. Rush Hour 3 - 225 million
9.Harry Potter 5/ Evan Almighty (Another tie. I have a bad feeling about Evan Almighty, I hope it does well.) - 210 million
10. Oceans 13 205 Million


Also, Spider-man 3 is not in the billion dollar club yet.

Domestic: $242,071,000 38.9%
+ Foreign: $379,595,000 61.1%

= Worldwide: $621,666,000

It needs a little less than 400 million to break the billion mark. And with Shrek 3 and Pirates 3....it doesn't look like that will happen anytime soon.

tC

Collector - I don't think anybody is really expecting Spider-Man 3 to break into the Billion Dollar Club. The best movie in the Spidey franchise has surpassed $800M worldwide, but that would be a truly huge leap of faith to expect this one to break a billion.

Speaking of huge leaps - your prediction for Knocked Up is definitely a huge leap. I agree with you that this could very well be the comedy sleeper of the summer (there's always at least one). It's also a situation that's very relatable (if one has not been involved in that sort of situation, the odds are good that somebody close to you has been). But.... it's an R-rated comedy. To date, the highest-grossing R-rated comedy of this type was The Wedding Crashers, which reached $210M. The highest R-rated comedy (more of an action-comedy) was Beverly Hills Cop ($235M). Indeed, your estimate of $380M would make it the highest R-rated movie of all time, surpassing The Passion of the Christ. I'm just saying the R-rating is a real hindrance to box office success. If it matches or surpasses the take of Wedding Crashers, I'd say it's doing extremely well.

And Fantastic Four at $445M? Geez, that's triple what the first one made! Yes, the Silver Surfer looks cool in the ads, but I can't see it making that much of a difference.

"With 400-600 mil overseas and another 200-400 mil here in the states over the next two months, Spider-Man 3 will also be joining the 1 billion worldwide club shared by only 3 films Last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, Titanic and Lord of the Rings: Return of the King are members of that elite group."

That is what Jarrod wrote above in his column. I was merely stating that I TOO do not think SPidey 3 will break 1 billion. Not sure why you thought I was saying it would or was saying ti out of the blue.

As for my predictions, yes, I am being very generous.

I think Knocked Up will be a huge it, will it make 380Mil? Most likely not. the others I think have a HUGE chance of making 400 million and above. More sequels, more theatres, more screens, means more money.

Spider-Man will indeed break the billion dollar mark by the end of this summer season.

It's going to be around 450-500 million overseas by NEXT week alone. It has no competition in most of the overseas market for another few weeks.

It will hit the billion dollar mark.

Jarrod Sarafin

Is anybody actually surprised by such a drop? It has quickly become commonplace for the biggest movies to see +50% drops in the 2nd weeks. Which is why so much importance continues to be placed on the opening weekend figures.

I'm not surprised Spidey dropped as much as it did, because everyone ran out to see it opening weekend. I don't think it will drop as much over the next couple of weeks and will keep fairly steady business for at least the next month. I know I'm planning on seeing it again. I think Collector went out on a thin limb with his FF2 and Knocked Up predictions. I think FF2 will do better than the first, but not the numbers Collector thinks. And, Knocked Up is R rated with leads who aren't exactly comedic A listers, so I can't see it being a huge hit but maybe a modest (80-85 million maybe).

haha, i love that ppl consider it a "poor" opening week for Pirates if it doesn't break the $150 mil mark. And wow, Shrek's running time is only 1 hr and 21 min? I enjoyed the previous two Shreks but they're gonna have to pack in the laughs on this one to keep the franchise on its feet to a 4th movie.