Box Office Report


Spidey’s Records set Studio Standards High

By: Jarrod Sarafin
Date: Sunday, May 06, 2007

We already knew this week would already be all about Spider-Man 3. With the anticipation so high, the presales from Fandango.com and Movietickets.com being in the upper stratosphere and news everywhere on Spider-Man 3 the past few weeks, the question wasn’t if it would win but how much would it really make? With a budget listed at $258 million and so much competition coming (Shrek 3 & Pirates 3), the real question was:
 
 “Would the film overcome the budget and make as much money as it could?”
 
The answer has come and gone. It has. The film brought took in 148.0 mil here in the states breaking the record held by last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean’s Dead Mans Chest. Spidey averaged $34,807 on the vast amount of screens given to the film and it also took in another 227.0 mil overseas by this beautiful strategy from Sony so its total in its first week is at 375 million. Yeah, you can see the facts of the situation here clear as day. The question above is answered.  More so in the fact that I believe there is a larger story here then Spider-Man 3 making as much money as this box office report is about to say. No, there’s something else involved here which will have me focusing on this movie more so then the other 9 films in the box office report. That bigger story for me is “film release strategy” from a studio perspective.
 
That’s the story which has me raising those eyebrows of mine. It’s the method of release in which Sony/Columbia has released Spider-Man 3 and how that same type of strategy probably has some studio execs at the competition wondering why it hasn’t been utilized more often and enacted before now. You can bet it has box office analysts sitting around in their cushy chairs silently totaling up the numbers.
 
Box office numbers that haven’t even been released yet.
 
I’m referring here to the Sony strategy to premiere Spider-Man 3 overseas all around the globe at the same time but also doing their early release (Tuesday, May 1st) in many countries at once rather then just a few premieres here in the states as is the “norm” for some big movies. A common strategy has been to release a movie on Wednesday (which is what Spider-Man 2 did) and make sure that said movie has a 5 day weekend ensuring the film gets around 100-120 million by the time the weekend’s box office report sets. That strategy wasn’t met here.
 
Instead, something much more ambitious in marketing & strategy was used by Spidey’s distributor Sony. They released Spider-Man 3 in 4,252 theaters and had it come out in every country that they could pre-book at the same time while also giving some of these nations a head start on the United States opening totals.
 
This strategy has the Box Office Report this weekend somewhat flummoxed.
 
Reports came in Wednesday that Spider-Man 3 made 29.2 mil in its overseas Tuesday premiere. Now, fellow Maniac, I want you to put together the fact that it most likely made 25-30 million on Wednesday overseas, another 25-30 mil on Thursday overseas and here’s what happened on Friday.
 
Friday May 4th:
 
Overseas (Foreign): 45.0 mil
Domestic (States): 59.0 mil
 
This Friday numbers is a Box Office Record for obvious reasons on a one day opener but they teach us and other studios something else entirely. That lesson learned for all of us would of course be “The correct way to release a tent pole movie.”
 
To give you guys some perspective here, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest made over a billion dollars with its domestic and foreign ticket sales. It also had the previous “One Day Opener” box office record with a 55 mil domestic take. Dead Man’s Chest was released on 4,133 theaters on 8,500 screens. Spider-Man 3 has taken the new record with 4,252 theaters with 10,000 screens going on its first global released day.
 
Now, combine the numbers from earlier in the week, numbers which haven’t even been released as I’m typing up this report:
 
Tuesday May 1st:
 
29.2 mil in overseas sales (confirmed)
 
What did it make Wednesday, Thursday thru the weekend overseas?
 
The film is likely to have around 60-90 million in overseas sales before Fridays record shattering 109 million sales day. You then add into this equation what it’s making right now in domestic & foreign sales on Saturday and Sunday (those numbers will be in estimate form in this report before I turn this in).
 
Note: Those numbers are now in and they are staggering. Spider-Man 3 made 227.0 mil overseas in its first week of release. Yes, 227.0 mil
 
We’re looking at some eye popping numbers here for Spider-Man 3’s Sony distributor. Numbers which were made possible by a marketing strategy and standard enacted by Sony for their highest prioritized tent pole release of the year.
 
A new release standard which will be utilized by future studio executives looking to make as much bang for their buck.
 
I can give you one very important reason why Sony did this outside of making this release an event upon itself. This reason will spell out why other studios will be following with this new standard outside the obvious goal of making as much money as Sony did here this week.
 
Reason: That reasoning would of course be Piracy and Bootlegging. By releasing the movie in so many overseas markets as well as here in the States all at once, they head off the boot leg pirates at the pass and take in as much box office as possible before any downloaded or pirated copies make the black market and the various internet download sites or Peer to Peer software programs out there.
 
 
 
 
Spider-Man vs. Spider-Man 2 vs. Spider-Man 3 Comparisons:
 
Spider-Man Domestic Opening Numbers:
Friday 05/03/02:      39.4 million
Saturday 05/04/02: 43.6 million
Sunday 05/05/02:    31.8 million
 
Budget:               139 million
Total Domestic: 403.7 million 
Total Foreign:     418.0 million  
Worldwide Total: 821.7 million
 
Spider-Man 2 Domestic Opening Numbers:
Wednesday 06/30/04: 40.4 million
Thursday 07/01/04:     23.8 million
Friday 07/02/04:          32.4 million
Saturday 07/03/04:     33.7 million
Sunday 07/04/04:        21.9 million
 
Budget:              200 million
Total Domestic: 373.5 million
Total Foreign:     410.1 million
Worldwide Total: 783.7 million
 
Spider-Man 3 Domestic Opening Numbers:
Friday 05/04/07:   59.0 million
Saturday 05/05/07: NA yet
Sunday 05/06/07: NT yet
 
Budget:              258 million
Total Domestic: 148.0 mil so far
Total Foreign:    227.0 mil so far
Worldwide Total: 375.0 mil so far
 
Time to report on the other movies this week:
 
Dreamwork’s Disturbia continues to stay steady coming behind Spidey this week in 2nd place with a 5.7 mil take in sales on 3,132 theaters. The film averaged poorly with $1,826 but then again all of the films outside of Spider-Man averaged very poorly. Disturbia is now at 59.8 mil total here in the states. Hopkin’s thriller Fracture took in 3.4 mil in 3rd place this weekend getting its total to 26.4 mil domestically. The film is on 2,365 theaters and averaged $1,446 on those screens. The Invisible follows behind in 4th place with 3.1 mil in sales receipts. In two weeks of release, the film has took in 12.3 mil domestically.
 
The sci fi thriller, Next, lands in 5th place this weekend with 2.7 mil on its 2,733 theaters. In its two weeks of release, it’s made 11.8 mil in sales. Lucky You was that “other” film which was debuting this week like Spider-Man 3. Amazingly enough, Warner Bros felt this release warranted a 2,525 screen release. Bad news Warner Bros. Your film, Lucky You, averaged only $996 in its 2,600 houses. Don’t feel too bad about it, nobody else fared much better. What were you thinking releasing it this weekend though?
 
Disney’s Meet the Robinsons follows behind in 7th place with 2.4 mil. The studio pulled it out of 354 screens this weekend while the film averaged $1,170 making its total domestic take at 91.7 mil. It also has a 45.4 foreign box office total so its worldwide take is at 137.2 mil. Will Ferrell’s Blades of Glory takes 8th place with 2.3 mil in receipts putting its domestic total to 111.6 mil. Blades is also being pulled out with Paramount taking it out of a nearly 1,000 screens this weekend. Hot Fuzz takes 9th place with 2.0 mil in sales on its measly 1,266 screens which places its total at 16.1 mil. Way to go, Rogue. You were your own worst enemies with this release. Ice Cube’s family comedy Are We Done Yet has been in the top 10 for 5 weeks now. This week, it comes in 10th place much like last week bringing in another 1.7 mil. Its total here in the states is now at 46.1 mil.
 
Rank
Movie
Weekend $
Theaters
Average
Total $
1
Spider-Man 3
148.0 mil
4,252
$34,807
148.0 mil
2
Disturbia
5.7 mil
3,132
$1,826
59.8 mil
3
Fracture
3.4 mil
2,365
$1,446
26.4 mil
4
The Invisible
3.1 mil
2,019
$1,547
12.3 mil
5
Next
2.7 mil
2,733
$1,012
11.8 mil
6
Lucky You
2.5 mil
2,525
$996
2.5 mil
7
Meet the Robinsons
2.4 mil
2,107
$1,170
91.7 mil
8
Blades of Glory
2.3 mil
2,113
$1,089
111.6 mil
9
Hot Fuzz
2.0 mil
1,266
$1,622
16.1 mil
10
Are We Done Yet
1.7 mil
1,704
$997
46.1 mil
 
 
 
Maniac Feedback:
 
The Top 10 Box Office Winners Question Continues:
 
Here are the Maniacs which have turned in their Top 10 Box Office estimates so far:
 
Snallygaster:
1. 1. Spider-Man 3
2. Pirates 3
3. Shrek 3
4. Harry Potter: Order of the Phoenix
5. Transformers
6. Ratatouille
7. Fantastic Four
8. The Bourne Ultimatum
9. Rush Hour 3
10. Live Free or Die Hard
 
jppintar326
1. Spiderman 3
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
3. Pirates of the Caribbean
4. Transformers
5. Shrek the Third
6. The Bourne UItimatium
7. Fantastic Four Rise of the Silver Surfer
8. Live Free or Die Hard
9. Rush Hour 3
10. Surf's Up
 
SinisterPryde
1. Spider-Man 3
2. Pirates of the Carribean: At Earth's End
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
4. Shrek 3
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
6. Ratatouille
7. Transformers
8. Rush Hour 3
9. Ocean's Thirteen
10. Live Free or Die Hard
 
wessmith1966
1. Pirates 3
2. Spider-Man 3
3. Harry Potter: Order of the Phoenix
4. Shrek 3
5. Transformers
6. Ratatouille
7. Live Free or Die hard
8. Fantastic Four
9. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
10. Evan Almighty
 
Captmathman
1 Spider-Man 3
2 Pirates 3
3 Harry Potter: Order of the Phoenix
4 Shrek the Third
5 Transformers
6 The Bourne Ultimatum
7 Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
8 The Simpsons Movie
9 Evan Almighty
10 Ocean's 13
 
Merin (with Box Office predictions as well)
1. Pirates 3 - $450 million L
2. Spider-Man 3 - $350 million M
3. Harry Potter 5 - $325 million L
4. Shrek 3 - $315 million L
5. FF 2 - $205 million M
6. Simpsons Movie - $200 million M
7. Rush Hour 3 - $200 million L
8. Transformers - $180 million L
9. Bourne Ultimatum - $175 million L
10. Ratatouille - $150 million M
 
Merin’s Note: “I put M and L after them all to show where I think it'll track. Meaning that I think Pirates will probably make less (L) but my guess is $450 million, whereas I think Simpsons will do more (M) than $215 million, but that is my guess.”
 
 
 
So the question still stands open. Test your Box office knowledge and put down your top 10 Box Office winners for the summer of 07. Over my past 5 months here with the Box Office Report, I’ve seen some intelligent and well thought out opinions on box office numbers and various tracking with the industry. Time to cut loose and join the above Maniacs with your best guesses on the Top 10!
 
 
 
One more thing I should add. Snallygaster posed this my way:
 
Snallygaster: “Jarrod, I think you forgot to revisit your poll question from a few weeks ago about whether April would be a better month at the box office than March. Without even looking at the numbers, it appears that April was a relative bomb compared to March. There was no 300-like surprise, there wasn't even really any movie that "grew legs" like Wild Hogs (I guess Blades of Glory comes the closest). I really didn't think that April would do that well - far too many low-end thrillers that few people could get excited about. This week's chart is evidence of that - the top four slots are thrillers, plus Vacancy further down the list. For me, Grindhouse was the only April release that will be truly memorable by the end of the year (and I don't even want to bring up the analysis of its box office again at this point).”
 
My Thoughts:
I’d have to agree with what you just said above (or rather last week), Snally. Honestly, I posed this question twice in two different box office reports in March and I only got a few replies in return so I’m thinking it wasn’t a question worth coming back to due to lack of interest. My thoughts are that the studios pretty much shot themselves in the foot for the month of April. The year of 2007 has been tracking well from the beginning but April was what stoners would call a total buzz-kill primarily the fault of the studios themselves. When posing this question in March, I was curious on whether the Grindhouse/Hot Fuzz experience would match up with March’s WildHogs/300 in box office tracking. Unfortunately, the Weinstein Company and Rogue decided to become their own worst enemy by releasing these two highly anticipated films in less theaters with less screens and very bad timing on their parts. If Grindhouse and Hot Fuzz was released on 3,500-4,000 theaters and had been managed better, perhaps we would have seen the high box office trends of March carry onward through April. Perhaps, a lot of things would have been different but as it stands now, April was a box office miss and a stall in the trends of 07 due to their own mis-managed screw-ups.
 
 
May 11, 2007 Releases:
 
Wide Releases
Georgia Rule (2,400+ screens)
28 Weeks Later (2,000 screens)
Delta Farce (1,800+ screens)
The Ex (900 screens)
 
Limited Releases
Blind Dating
Day Night/Day Night
The Hip Hop Project
Life in a…Metro
The Salon
Show Business
 
 
That’s going to do it for this week’s edition of the Mania Box Office Report. See you next time, Maniacs!

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Comments/Responses
1 2 > >>
chaotic • May 06, 2007, 01:31pm •
Wow!!

jppintar326 • May 06, 2007, 02:14pm •
It will be very difficult for Shrek The Third and At World's End to top Spiderman 3's gross. The competition will be strong this year. I think Dead Man's Chest did so well last year because it had somewhat weak competition. Superman Returns was not the huge blockbuster it was expected to be. I think this year's lineup is better than last year's. More competition will likely mean the box office take will be more spread out. Spiderman 3 was the first out of the gate so it has quite an advantage. Shrek the Third and At World's End will be a week apart so they may take away each other's audience. It will certainly be interesting to watch in the next couple of weeks what happens. The summer of 07 has begun.

westend • May 06, 2007, 03:43pm •
Disturbia has had some decent legs.

I think Pirates will win the total box as it has more appeal to the teen girls who will pay so see Pirates 3 or 4 times just to see Depp and Bloom.

snallygaster • May 06, 2007, 04:22pm •
I don't think Shrek has a chance of beating Spidey's box office, but Pirates is certainly still in the running. Both franchises have a lot in common, not the least of which is that previous installments have broken box office records (for that matter, so has Shrek).

The next two weekends will be critical. If next weekend's drop is steeper than the previous installments, that may mean that the fans who have proclaimed this the weakest of the three have not gone back for a repeat viewing. Then the following weekend will be its first real blockbuster competition with Shrek 3. Even if it holds up well the next two weekends, that's no guarantee that it will beat Pirates. As noted above, Pirates does have an edge with the female audience, which I believe extends beyond the teenage girls - there's a lot of adult women who swoon over Depp.

However, I'm going to stick by my guns and predict Spidey will beat Pirates in a close race. If I were to make any change to my Top Ten in the summer movie race, I'd probably bump Die Hard for Evan Almighty. There's always one comedy that breaks into the summer's top movies, and I think that one will do quite well as a family comedy, given the perennial popularity of the Noah's Ark story with kids.

peteo • May 06, 2007, 06:15pm •
I thought this was an interesting bit regarding IMAX's b.o. Planning to catch SM3 in both formats.

From CNN.com:

"Also among the records smashed by "Spider-Man 3" was a $4.8 million domestic gross at huge-screen IMAX theaters, topping the previous best of $3.6 million set by "300" in March."

amatorian • May 06, 2007, 06:48pm •
Personally I believe that Pirates will have the large box office records. It’s date of release with it’s only major competition being Shrek 3 which will have already gained it’s initial opening weekend prior to Pirates release gives it essentially three weeks until Fantastic Four 2 comes out which is the next blockbuster in line for the summer after it. So you have opening weekend and on top of that three full weeks with the only competition being Shrek 3.

With the amount of money made so far with Spidey I’m not sure if it’s legs will hold out for too long, but we saw with Pirates 2 that it was still in the top ten money makers at theaters almost two months after it’s release. All around I think there will be a larger calling for an audience for Pirates 3. I could be wrong. It might not make or break opening weekend records set by Spidey 3, but I believe it will last longer in the theater with a better run in the end.

A.

Merin • May 06, 2007, 07:25pm •
I enjoyed Spider-Man 3, but I have been hearing ALOT of negativity from - well - almost everyone I know. There have a been a handful of "pretty goods" and a couple "best of series", but mostly "that was too much and I'm disappointed" and "that sucked so bad" that I'm shocked.
I'm still hedging my bets with Pirates beating Spidey - but I may change my mind depending on next weekend's drop. If Spidey can keep it's drop from going more than, eh, about 40-45%, it could win. These weekend numbers shocked me a little - I expected Spidey 1 numbers at best.
It's gonna be a knock-down, drag-out fight between these two films. Can't wait to see what happens!
I don't plan on seeing Spidey 3 again in the theater, and I don't know anyone else who plans on it either. Anyone here going to see it a second time?

hanso • May 06, 2007, 07:47pm •
To answer your question Merin, Yes I do plan to see it a second time. As a matter of fact I already did. Twice on friday. Man, I just had to see Venom and Sandman again. They were awesome. Special Effects were great in this film. Seeing Venom come to life was a dream come true for me :). I think Topher and Church did a great job with their characters, especially Topher, he stole every scene he was in.
Personally, I enjoyed it and liked it way more than Spider-Man 2( I was never ok with Spidey losing his powers due to a mental block). Spidey 3 had some great action and some great stuff overall but I admit it isn't perfect or the best super hero film out there( that still goes to Batman Begins in my opinion). I think Spidey 3 had to much going on and they should've broken it down to 2 films(spidey 3 and 4), i hated the dark gothic peter look and his dance sequence, and it had some cheesy parts and under developed characters(especifically Sandman, his daugher is sick and i know this because she has a cane and a tube up her nose? at least tell me what the disease is and how the expensive the treatment is)

DarkJedi • May 06, 2007, 07:51pm •
I have to agree with ya there, Merin. This is going to be drag out doozy of a fight.

I can't believe it made 375 million dollars in one opening swoop.

It's unbelieveable for me to process the information here and yet I can't wait to see if studios utilize this strategy again to have as big openers as Spidey 3 did.

Jarrod

hanso • May 06, 2007, 07:55pm •
On a personal note, I also wished we could've had more Venom! Here's what I would've done with Spidey 3. The main villains should've been Harry Osbourne and the Sandman and introduce Eddie Brock. They could've worked the Harry Osbourne storyline just the same, expanded on the Sandman and Gwen Stacy character and have the symbiote storyline as well. I would've ended Spidey 3 with Peter doing something awful like killing or almost killing the Sandman and him realizing the suit is making him act out of character so he goes to the church and takes it off. blam it hits Brock and Venom is seen for the last shot of the film, clif hanger for part 4. In part 4 we can have way more Venom plus have Doc Conners working with the symbiote and his experiments of regeneration thus creating the Lizard. So we have 2 villains and maybe Spidey then needs Harry's help.

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