Movie News


Weekend Box Office Report for January 12-14

By: Jarrod Sarafin
Date: Sunday, January 14, 2007

In a surprise outcome, Stomp The Yard(pulling in 22 mil) trampled over the champions of the 1st and 2nd spots. Fox’s Night at the Museum and Sony’s Pursuit of Happyness has ranked 1 and 2 for 3 weeks straight going into this weekend and now they end up in the 2nd and 3rd spots while Stomp takes the top spot. Considering that Stomp director Sylvain White has three films under his directorial belt(two of them being “I’ll always know what you did last summer”-2006 & “Trois 3: The Escort”-2004), it is a little surprising to see this one open up with these numbers. You Got Served-2004(another film about dancing or dance offs) opened up on 1/30/2004 with a 16.1 mil take, not bad at all.
 
Other openers this week were Justin Timberlake’s Alpha Dog and Buena Vista ’s Primeval. Dog and Prim are  too close with the estimates to be finalized but it looks like one will be in 7th and one will be in 8th. As of this moment, Dog has the lead with 6.1 mil while Primeval is a little short with 5.9 mil.
 
Clive Owen’s Children of Men fell to the 6th spot this weekend, pulling in 6.4 mil while increasing in 299 screens across the country. By increasing in 1,055 screens, Dreamgirls moved up a spot to 4th place while Freedom Writers moved down to take the 5th spot. One week after Happily Never After opened to dismal numbers(it’s not even ranked this week), Arthur and the Invisibles opens at 9th place with a dismal 4.3 mil. No doubt about it, the children are staying at home playing with their new video games or holiday presents.
 
Here’s the weekend total estimates for the top 10:
 
Rank
Movie
Weekend $
Screens
Average
Total $
1
Stomp the Yard
22.0 mil
2,051
$10,726
22.0 mil
2
Night At the Museum
17.1 mil
3,612
$4,734
185.7 mil
3
Pursuit of Happyness
9.1 mil
3,169
$2,871
134.4 mil
4
Dream Girls
8.1 mil
1,907
$4,259
64.9 mil
5
Freedom Writers
7.1 mil
2,179
$3,266
18.4 mil
6
Children of Men
6.4 mil
1,508
$4,265
21.3 mil
7
Alpha Dog
6.1 mil
1,288
$4,768
6.1 mil
8
Primeval
5.9 mil
2,444
$2,450
5.9 mil
9
Arthur & Invisibles
4.3 mil
2,247
$1,913
4.3 mil
10
The Good Shepherd
3.9 mil
1,994
$1,959
54.2 mil
 
 
Now is usually the time when the holiday released movies start fading from the many screens across the US and when January movies start to take over that top spots in the box office report. Of course, that doesn’t really mean much. It just translates to the average movie going public having already seen the December released movies & the amount of screens being dedicated to January opened movies..
 
 
The month of January can be a pretty unforgiving month for the studios. If they’re not careful about marketing & budget in terms of how much money is needed for them to make a profit, this month can make or break the future success of the movie.
 
Obviously some movies market themselves (Star Wars SE & Underworld Evolution) but really, the best course of action is to market the date being released accordingly with the budget of that movie. If the movie is a higher budget, best word of advise is: Don’t release it in January. This month is notorious for people saving money, filing taxes, & re-cooperating losses from the holiday season.
 
Case in point, if you look at the top 30 January openings of all time, only 4 of those movies broke the 100 mil barrier.
 
                                       Those movies are:
Rank
Movie
Weekend
# Screens
Average
Total $
Released
1
Star Wars SE
35.9 mil
2,104
$17,065
138.2 mil
1/31/97
2
Black Hawk Down
28.6 mil
3,101
$9,226
108.6 mil
1/18/02
16
A Beautiful Mind
16.5 mil
1,853
$8,940
170.7 mil
1/04/02
21
Traffic
15.5 mil
1,510
$10,276
124.1 mil
1/05/01
 
 
That’s it for the top 30 Jan openings. As most people know, the most important part of a movie’s theatre release is the first two weekends. If the movie doesn’t perform well in those initial two weekends, it’s up to word of mouth, worldwide box office, & dvd sales to push the money line up to the profit margin.
 
 
Next Weeks Releases are:
 
January 19:
 
The Hitcher (2600 screens)
Pan’s Labyrinth(expanding 500 more screens)
Letters from Iowa Jima(expanding 300 screens)
The Last King of Scotland(expanding 400 screens)

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Comments/Responses
1
jppintar326 • Jan 14, 2007, 08:16pm •
Children of Men is still not playing in my area and chances are it never will. It doesn't look like Dreamgirls is doing as well as the producers thought.

snallygaster • Jan 14, 2007, 10:00pm •
Nice analysis, Jarrod (I gather Karl isn't covering the box office report anymore?), and thanks for the easy-to-read tables.

January usually is a dismal time for the box office. It's hard to pinpoint the chicken and egg effect - yes, people are staying at home, but at the same time January is known to be one of the times of year when studios dump their crap into the theaters. So it's a bit of a vicious cycle.

The two animated movies are bombing, but I can see why Hollywood thought they had a shot - remember this time last year they released Hoodwinked, which was a surprise moderate (and low budget) hit. Obviously the Happily N'ever After folks were hoping for lightning to strike twice but it obviously didn't.

jppintar326, I think Dreamgirls will do fine in the end. Its box office only decined 6% from the previous week, which usually indicates good publicity and word-of-mouth. After next weekend, the Oscar nominees will be announced, and if it fare well there it will likely do steady business through the end of February. This is why those other three movies listed above are expanding next weekend, to take advantage of any Oscar buzz (and I really hope that my local theater is one of those 500 that Pan's Labyrinth is expanding to).

DarkJedi • Jan 14, 2007, 10:27pm •
Thanks for the compliments, Snally. Yep, I'll be covering them from now on because I'm assuming Karl has his hands more than full running everything else on this site. Besides, I've loved talking box office trends for years...:-)



Which reminds me, if you or any of our fellow Maniacs have any suggestions on what you'd like to talk about in "talking points", don't hesitate to shoot the suggestion my way.


jetpackjesus • Jan 14, 2007, 10:33pm •
I also hope Pan's Labyrinth expands into my area. I finally got see CoM a couple days ago and I thought it was fantastic. I've heard Pan's is also quite the film and I pray I get to see it in theaters. I missed the Fountain, but I'll take two of these three movies.

Excellent chart format by the way. I also like the general analysis too.

jamesdalton • Jan 14, 2007, 10:57pm •
I heard "Night at the Museum" was up for Best Picture...

...starring Ben Stiller in a museum released in December of 2006.

SlamShut • Jan 15, 2007, 08:40am •
Nice writeup, Jarrod.

Keep up the quality. All the columns should be this well written.

monkeyfoot • Jan 15, 2007, 09:29am •
Saw Children of Men this weekend. Excellent movie! Definitely not your Happy Popcorn movie. It's in a world so desolate and sad that you can almost see it coming around the corner for real. And one shining bit of hope that could give inspiration to everbody. All the characters are well defined, and are, well, characters, with interesting personalities. The violence in it is very shocking and realistic, similar to Saving Pvt. Ryan. All I could thing during those scenes is this is probably about 1/10 as bad as it is in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I'm surprised Alpha Dog didn't do that well with the way they've been hyping it. The same for Arthur & the Invisibles.
And like everyone else - excellent article, analysis, and charts, Jarrod.

muchdrama • Jan 15, 2007, 02:33pm •
"Children of Men" puts the top five to shame.

almostunbiased • Jan 15, 2007, 04:06pm •
You know whe I first read about Night at the museum a year ago, I thought, what a dumb idea, but I was 185.7 million dollars wrong.

snallygaster • Jan 15, 2007, 05:20pm •
Actually, I saw Night at the Museum this afternoon (I had some time on my hands while my car was getting serviced) and it's a fun little romp. It's obviously very much in the vein of Jumanji and Zathura, and seemed to be very popular with the family crowd. In fact, today was a school holiday, and the theater was packed with families, surprisingly so since it's been out for three weekends.

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